triathematician
What impact will the results of the Pennsylvania primary have on national Gallup polling?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106888/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-47-Obama-46.aspx
Background:
Settlement will be based on the difference in Gallup polling numbers (http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx) between the days before the primary and the days after the primary. The following specific guidelines give the days considered:
Before amount: average of any Gallup daily polls dated 4/19, 4/20, and 4/21. (Note that since these are three day averages, this will include numbers from 4/17 to 4/21).
After amount: average of any Gallup daily polls dated 4/25, 4/26, and 4/27. (Again these are three day averages, so will include numbers from 4/23 to 4/27).
Therefore, the question considers the average difference in polling numbers before vs. after the primary. (Example: if Obama leads by average +7 before the primary, +9 after the primary, then the question will be settled as Obama increases by +2).
Sorry for making this so complicated. I couldn't think of an easier way to ask the question. Leave a comment if I need to clarify anything.
Disclaimer: the number of course will reflect other sorts of political events than the PA primary.
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx. See background info for complete settlement details.
Settled
| Obama gains 2.01 or more |
| |||
| Obama gains 1.01-2.00 |
| |||
| Obama gains 0.01-1.00 |
| |||
| No change |
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| Clinton gains 0.01-1.00 |
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| Clinton gains 1.01-2.00 |
| |||
| Clinton gains 2.01 or more |
|
Suspend date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 30th Apr 2008 4:37am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Apr 2008 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama gains 2.01 or more: 4%, Obama gains 1.01-2.00: 15%, Obama gains 0.01-1.00: 30%, No change: 2%, Clinton gains 0.01-1.00: 30%, Clinton gains 1.01-2.00: 15%, Clinton gains 2.01 or more: 4%
Action history:
triathematician 
jake
: Numbers for 4/25-4/27 are in.
4/25 - even at 47%
4/26 - even at 47%
4/27 - Obama +1 47-46
Obama is up an average of .33, which makes Hillary's gain 6%. Should be settled as Clinton gains 2.01 or more.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106855/Gallup-Daily-Race-Still-Close-Obama-47-Clinton-46.aspx
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: http://www.gallup.com/poll/106888/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-47-Obama-46.aspx
Suspend date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 30th Apr 2008 4:37am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Apr 2008 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (88)
88 predictions
predicted No change (H$20 at 2%)
predicted Clinton gains 0.01-1.00 (H$20 at 32%)
predicted Clinton gains 0.01-1.00 (H$20 at 31%)
jenniandboys
swilson
predicted Clinton gains 1.01-2.00 (H$200 at 18%)
bigken1
predicted Clinton gains 1.01-2.00 (H$100 at 10%)
stephComments (6)
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4/19: Obama +2
4/20: Obama +7
4/21: Obama +10
So the question is... will Obama do better or worse than +6.33 in the days after the primary?
4/25 - even at 47%
4/26 - even at 47%
4/27 - Obama +1 47-46
Obama is up an average of .33, which makes Hillary's gain 6%. Should be settled as Clinton gains 2.01 or more.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106855/Gallup-Daily-Race-Still-Close-Obama-47-Clinton-46.aspx
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