triathematician
What will be Clinton's polling margin in Pennsylvania on April 15 (as reported by RCP)?
RCP Average 04/09 - 04/14 - 49.8 41.2 Clinton +8.6
Background:
This will settle AFTER 1800 EST on the 15th to allow time for weekend polling to come in.
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html. This is an average of recent polls by several different organizations. Settle ONLY AFTER 1800 EST to allow time for weekend polling to come in.
Settled
| Clinton leads by 15.0 or more |
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| Clinton leads by 10.0 to 14.9 |
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| Clinton leads by 7.5 to 9.9 |
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| Clinton leads by 5.0 to 7.4 |
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| Clinton leads by 0.1 to 4.9 |
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| Tie or Obama leads |
|
Suspend date: Tue 15th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 16th Apr 2008 4:42am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Clinton leads by 15.0 or more: 5%, Clinton leads by 10.0 to 14.9: 10%, Clinton leads by 7.5 to 9.9: 35%, Clinton leads by 5.0 to 7.4: 35%, Clinton leads by 0.1 to 4.9: 10%, Tie or Obama leads: 5%
Action history:
triathematician triathematician: RCP Average 04/09 - 04/14 - 49.8 41.2 Clinton +8.6
Should be settled as 7.5-9.9.
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: RCP Average 04/09 - 04/14 - 49.8 41.2 Clinton +8.6
Suspend date: Tue 15th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 16th Apr 2008 4:42am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (118)
118 predictions
jawsoflife
predicted Clinton leads by 15.0 or more (H$50 at 1%)
predicted Clinton leads by 7.5 to 9.9 (H$250 at 36%)
predicted Clinton leads by 7.5 to 9.9 (H$70 at 40%)
predicted Clinton leads by 0.1 to 4.9 (H$100 at 8%)Comments (0)
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