triathematician What will be Hillary Clinton's lead in the next RASMUSSEN poll in Pennsylvania?
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_primary_toplines_march_24_2008
No specific date was given for the exact release of the poll. But it was conducted on the 24th, not released.
Background:
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php. The question will be settled by the next Rasmussen poll conducted after the question has closed (March 18).
The question should not be settled based on any poll but one conducted by Rasmussen.
Settled
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Hillary leads by 20 or more points |
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Hillary leads by 15-19 points |
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Hillary leads by 10-14 points |
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Hillary leads by 5-9 points |
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Hillary leads by 1-4 points |
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Tie or Barack leads |
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Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 26th Mar 8:46am PDT
Initial likelihoods: Hillary leads by 20 or more points: 5%, Hillary leads by 15-19 points: 10%, Hillary leads by 10-14 points: 35%, Hillary leads by 5-9 points: 35%, Hillary leads by 1-4 points: 10%, Tie or Barack leads: 5%
Action history:
triathematician 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Since the poll has not yet been released predictions on this market can continue ryanj 
newswrangler![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
:
Poll just released -- winning prediction = 10 points
<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary>
triathematician: The margin was 10 (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_primary_toplines_march_24_2008)
I'm not entirely sure when this was released.
ryanj: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_primary_toplines_march_24_2008
No specific date was given for the exact release of the poll. But it was conducted on the 24th, not released.
Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 26th Mar 8:46am PDT
more info...
Predictions (131)
131 predictions
fgadiutaComments (9)
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<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/What_will_be_the_margin_in_the_next_poll_conducted_by_ARG_on_the_Pennsylvania_Democratic_Primary_4118/View#predictions>
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
The question intimated a one week polling period. I this this is a "reasonable and common sense" interpretation of the question.
As other polls, and markets created by the creator of this question, that have come out already indicate, the polling place (Pennsylvania) is very fluid. To freeze this question in time, when it was intended by the creator of the question, as well as, I would venture, many/most of the users, that the poll would be released 3 days ago is against the spirit of what this market was about.
In my view, this market ought be voided as
"2.2.9 Changes of Circumstances
* If an event is ... abandoned
It looks like we just have to be patient, as with the ARG poll question. The organizations will probably start polling more frequently when the primary is closer.
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
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