What will be the average margin in the Gallup daily polling for the Democratic presidential candidates (4/15-4/21)?

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx. Settlement should take place on April 22 after the results for the 21st have been released (assuming they are).

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Tue 22nd Apr 3:51pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 10.00 or more on average: 10%, Obama leads by 7.50 to 9.99 on average: 40%, Obama leads by 5.00 to 7.49 on average: 30%, Obama leads by 0.01 to 4.99 on average: 10%, Tie: 5%, Clinton leads by any amount: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Apr 2:50pm PDT by triathematician

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Tue 22nd Apr 10:11am PDT by triathematician: Results were: +8, +7, +3, -1, +2, +7, +10, for an average of 5.14. Should be settled as 5-7.5.

Settled as 'Obama leads by 5.00 to 7.49 on average' Tue 22nd Apr 3:51pm PDT by ryanj: The average was 5.14

All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx. Settlement should take place on April 22 after the results for the 21st have been released (assuming they are).... read all