triathematician
What will be the average margin in the Gallup daily polling for the Democratic presidential candidates (4/8-4/14)?
Obama lead by an average of 9.14
Background:
Polls have a 3% margin of error. The press release for day X comes out on day X+1, so this should be settled only after 1300 on April 15, when the results for April 14 are posted.
The question will be settled based on the average of [Obama-Clinton] over all polls between April 8 and April 14, inclusive.
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Settled
| Obama leads by 7.50 or more on average |
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| Obama leads by 5.00 to 7.49 on average |
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| Obama leads by 2.50 to 4.99 on average |
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| Obama leads by 0.01 to 2.49 on average |
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| Tie |
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| Clinton leads by 0.01 to 2.49 on average |
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| Clinton leads by 2.50 or more on average |
|
Suspend date: Tue 15th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 16th Apr 2008 4:35am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Apr 2008 2:05pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 7.50 or more on average: 10%, Obama leads by 5.00 to 7.49 on average: 30%, Obama leads by 2.50 to 4.99 on average: 30%, Obama leads by 0.01 to 2.49 on average: 20%, Tie: 1%, Clinton leads by 0.01 to 2.49 on average: 8%, Clinton leads by 2.50 or more on average: 1%
Action history:
triathematician triathematician: Should be settled as average > 7.5... I don't know the exact average but all of the days were 7+, so it was easily over 7.5 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Obama lead by an average of 9.14
Suspend date: Tue 15th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 16th Apr 2008 4:35am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Apr 2008 2:05pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (201)
201 predictions
jawsoflife
predicted Obama leads by 5.00 to 7.49 on average (H$100 at 5%)
stephmoreland
predicted Obama leads by 7.50 or more on average (H$20 at 96%)Comments (1)
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