What will be the margin in the next poll conducted by ARG on the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?

Doesn't the latest ARG poll place Clinton's lead at 11, not 9?

Pennsylvania
Democrats Mar 7-8

Clinton 52%
Obama 41%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 6%

Yup. Sorry for the mixup.

No harm done. I wish my mistakes were that minor.

be the first to see it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6191C4oK6s0

This should be settled ONLY BY an American Research Group poll. Any other polling source DOES NOT count. (This was the only way I could think to write such a question...)

I thin the ARG poll should come out soon, but I think I'll switch to using Rasmussen as a polling source, since it seems to conduct regular polls (every Wednesday).

See the next poll question at http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/What_will_be_Hillary_Clintons_lead_in_the_next_RASMUSSEN_poll_in_Pennsylvania_4462/view

Wow -- it's more than ten days since the last poll, and nearly a week since this question was asked.

I liked this question -- and find polling, in general, to be interesting. But had I known this "next poll" would be some unknown date in the future, I wouldn't have made any predictions.

Obviously, polls are timely, and (usually) move. The prediction range I made "back then" in this significant primary certainly isn't what I would make now.

Please don't view this comment as "whining" ... I *am* in to this market at a significant level (to me ;) -- and if I "lose", then so be it.

That said, given the (1) date of the last poll, (2) the date the market was created, and (3) the date the market suspended, along with the caveat "Predictions made after the poll results have been posted will be voided.", I did make, I think, reasonable assumptions that this poll would be timely.

This market leaves me with a less-than-sweet taste to it.

maybe since we don't know when the next poll will come out we could unsuspend this question until then and let it play out?

Yikes -- it's been another day, and no poll results ...
Obama had major media coverage yesterday ... in Pennsylvania -- and around the world.
He has two more major speeches planned, one for today and another tomorrow.
Clinton picked up a, possibly significant, Pennsylvania endorsement yesterday.

Yesterday, major media outlets announced their own plans to commission polls to track the significance of Obama's speech...

triathematician, was this, somewhat frozen, poll what you had in mind when you created this market?
Given the potential dynamic changes, one way or another, do you think this market ought continue to run as it is?

(I am in on your other Rasmussen poll -- those results should be very interesting!)

Well -- who knew?

This market has been "unsuspended" -- and is open for users, who happen to login,and happen to notice!

Other users in this market may likely get screwed.

This market was resumed without any notification whatsoever (save the 9pt type in the Settlement Details).

I have posted a topic about this in the Get Satisfaction forum, requesting that this market be voided as a result of this action.

Please add your thoughts to the debate:
<http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/market_unsuspended_resumed_without_notice>

I will speak for tri since he's downstairs cleaning up the basement now :)

No, its not what he intended. It was meant to give us something to do while we wait for the PA vote -- and he thought the ARG poll would be coming out on Monday -- we have both asked Ryan to unsuspend this until the poll comes out. Feel free to ask as well.. nothing wrong with a little admin harassment!

(i hate it when another comment comes in while i'm in the middle of composing my comment!)

we have both asked Ryan to unsuspend this until the poll comes out.

Do you think asking Ryan privately is "the way to go" -- rather than bringing up the subject in this thread?

1) I guess I don't really see why there is a big problem with it unsuspending.. I'll go talk to you in getsatisfaction about that.
2) The 'privately' is a good point. I've found flags are usually the fastest/most reliable way to get an admin's attention. Unfortunately its not public. It would be nice if we could have a public conversation but still make sure the admins knew we wanted to get their attention. There are an increasing # of threads which have long conversations between players which don't require the admins attention (or mine for that matter). (For example: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Chris_Stafford_still_be_the_richest_admin_on_Hubdub_on_31st_March_2008_4558/view and http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/BSE_Sensex_Open_up_or_down_Mar_19th_4339/view)

I'm not in ANY way saying its bad for users to chat on threads, just that its harder for the admins to keep track of the discussions they need to. I tend to use the flagging system, but perhaps a double post would be better.

Really sorry this frustrated you, to be honest, I thought I was helping -- I thought you were annoyed that the market was frozen, so the obvious solution seemed to unfreeze it. I hope you can acknowledge good intentions here!

WE WANT A CHATROOM
WE WANT A CHATROOM
WE WANT A CHATROOM
WE WANT A CHATROOM
WE WANT A CHATROOM
WE WANT A CHATROOM

Sorry for the confusion. I think after making a few of these questions, I'll start to figure out which polling sources are good ones to use. I was guessing the next ARG would come out soon, but I suppose not. Unfortunately I don't know how to be certain about such things. Hopefully the Rasmussen & Gallup questions will be a little more "reliable".

In your considerations, you might want to look at the polling done by Quinnipiac University. The organization seems well respected. Here's a link to their latest analysis of the Pennsylvania race:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1158&What=&strArea=;&strTime=120

we have both asked Ryan to unsuspend this until the poll comes out.

Why is this unknown poll set to suspend in one day?

check out the spread on this summary of surveys concerning Pennsylvania:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Who the hell is PPP? I thought it was a glitch in my teen years. Little Miss Sixty (15th -16th) at +26%??

Rasmussen has Miss Sixty at 10% (on the 24th) They seem to be contracted by FOX TV, and we all know what tthat means: this is a Missouri poll BTW, but the fact FOX use them is my point..

http://www.myfoxkc.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=6139950&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.11.1

If people only ever read the newspapers that agree with their opinions, then we can assume that FOX like Rasmussen for their conservative bias. Still, what does this mean in relation to the Democrats? I guess it means Hillary must be around mid teens, which is surprising perhaps. Rasmussen had Miss Sixty on 13% on March 13th, so if we equal levels of bias for ARG on March 7-8th, who were 11%, then adjust for smoking, obesity, marital status and lack of exercise then probably ARG will maybe come out lower than 10% for Hillary, which pretty much screws me. Of course, this is all wild conjecture. Can you extrapolate polls and guesstimate them according to equal levels of bias? I don't know. What I am doing here? I need a bath and two weeks diving in Mozambique.

PPP is Public Policy Polling. don't know how reliable a source.appreciate the interesting posts and links.