
What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?
The gap in voter support for Obama versus McCain is slightly wider (53% to 40%) when the vote preferences of all registered voters are taken into account.
Background:>
Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This market will continue to use the REGISTERED voters numbers it has been using since first introduced.
Settlement details:http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx posted near 1300ET on Monday November 3.
If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released Gallup daily poll.
| Obama leads by 15 points or more |
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| Obama leads by 13 or 14 points |
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| Obama leads by 11 or 12 points |
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| Obama leads by 9 or 10 points |
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| Obama leads by 7 or 8 points |
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| Obama leads by 5 or 6 points |
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| Other |
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- Activity: H$45,242 |
- Predictions: 230 |
Comments: 52
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 4am PST
Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 10:35am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 15 points or more: 5%, Obama leads by 13 or 14 points: 10%, Obama leads by 11 or 12 points: 25%, Obama leads by 9 or 10 points: 30%, Obama leads by 7 or 8 points: 20%, Obama leads by 5 or 6 points: 5%, Other: 5%
Action history:
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 4am PST
Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 10:35am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 4am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (230)
Comments (52)
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Palestinian students in Gaza are cold-calling US voters to urge them to support their hero Barack Obama.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3330446/Palestinians-toil-for-Barack-Obama-win.html
quite simple, isn't it?
Read it again - these are not American citizens.
A "citizen of the world" should be running for some UN position, not President of the United States.
I predict America will decide on Nov. 4 to stop alienating itself from the rest of the world and it will be in the best interest of everyone including America. Hopefully it won't take 4 years to undo the damage done in the last 8. Tough task indeed.
You might consider how deeply the US government, particularly under Republicans, involves itself in the internal affairs of foreign, sovereign countries, even in their elections.
Or when Barack Obama when to Kenya on tax payer money, to campaign in the election there, and then proceed to try to broker a power sharing deal after his canidate (Odinga) failed to win
Or when some of these analysts went to France to offer advice on their election strategy, as reported in http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/13/news/paris.php
How do you feel about the CIA's covert coup in Iran in the '50s?
That kinda backfired didn't it?
We completely support and adore your leader!
The next one!
Saudi Arabia...Remember...Where Osama and 9/11 came from?!?
There's a reason America has been the best for awhile now.... I just think people confused as to what kind of "change" they want. Do they want to change the fundamentals of America? Or do they want to change the way corruption has entered the system?
I'm guessing most want the latter but are confused as to who can do that for them.
roba: didn't the US put up a bail out itself? how large was it? oh, right, that's not socialism because it just honors the mistakes of some greedy hedge fond managers and makes the rich only richer. That's capitalism.
Senator Barack Obama indicated that he was visiting Africa to help nurture relations between the continent and the United States. His mission, therefore, was warmly welcomed by the Government and the people of Kenya. The fact that he has roots in Kenya endeared him to the people of this country.
However, during his public address at the University of Nairobi, Senator Obama made extremely disturbing statements on issues which it is clear, he was very poorly informed, and on which he chose to lecture the Government and the people of Kenya on how to manage our country.
( More at: http://www.communication.go.ke/media.asp?id=284 )
Kenyans, understandably, don't like it when he does that to them. By the same token, foreigners should not meddle in American affairs either!
actually.... i would agree with you that the bail out is socialism. And this would never have been done 20 years ago. I think that shows I have a point when I say we are trending to the left
Barack Obama Will Hurt US Firms and the World Economy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/03/do0301.xml
roba, I think the bail out is correct - only it is wrongly addressed. That huge amount of money should not have been spend to pay the bonuses to the managers and scalpers, but to help those who can't pay the mortgage. In the end, it were these greedy bankers who sold them, well knowing these home-owners could not pay them. But nevertheless, with their own provisions in mind, they sold them.
Don't get me wrong: I am no communist. But I prefer fair play.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/philip_sherwell/blog/2008/11/03/wheres_the_leader_of_the_free_world_george_w_bushs_disappearing_act
you use the typical class warfare of a liberal. the rich are bad people, and we need to take their money to give to the less fortunate. who hires the plumbers of america? if you take more of their money are they gonna hire more plumbers? who set's the price's of their products? if you take more of their money are they gonna lower their price's?
you think if the plumber get's takin advantage of by some rich guy it's the govt's job to bail the plumber out? it's just as much as the plumber's fault! they shouldn't have bought a house they knew they couldn't afford. the congress already passed a $300 billon package to help with people facing foreclosure. now you think they need more? come to the USA and show me where all these mansion's are.
Chill out a bit, man. You're a self-described conservative and you presume to speak for liberals. Don't put words in other people's mouths, man.
Let's get some terms straightened out so we can have a constructive conversation.
First, what does the word liberal mean to you? Because to me, it refers to the laissez-faire economic policies of the last eight years.
Second, is everyone who votes Democrats, from where you sit, a liberal?
Third, I've never heard a single Democrat say the rich are bad people. Nor have I ever heard a single Democrat call for class warfare. The only idiot who has spoken of "class warfare" in this campaign is that jackass McCain, who is too senile to find his ass with a roadmap.
Finally, I can show you where the mansions are. They're in Palm Beach, upper Manhattan, Boston, Miami, California and everywhere else. And for every mansion, there are hundreds of people living without health insurance and with the less-than-mediocre education system, which I presume, is responsible for your inability to write a correct sentence, correctly match verbs with nouns, or spell simple words like QUITE (not quit), prices, (not price's), taking, (not takin), because, (not cause).
I lived for years without health insurance, and now I only have minimal coverage. There are people out there (like me) who choose this. You can't make blanket statements with statistics like that, assuming that the under-insured are necessarily the under-priviledged.
I may not be wealthy, but I certainly don't want the government taking care of me! If I wanted the government to take care of me, I wouldn't have chosen to live in the USA.
I'd guess that some of the wingnuts would be OK with that...if they knew about it.
...'course, they *support* democracy in other countries.
#17 Yessir!
http://tinyurl.com/58u9gv
"Here's something I will never understand: Yours is the only modern nation in the world in which people who get sick go broke. Let me write this slowly so it will be easier to understand: Universal health care is not socialism, it's just us taking care of each other. Our doctors are good, we have surrendered no freedoms, we live longer than you do, and our infant-mortality rate is better than yours."
http://www.thestar.com/News/USElection/article/529278
The huge profit that bloats insurance costs isn't even efficient...unless you *like* paying $300 for a tongue depressor...
If you lived in the United States, you would know that hospitals are not allowed to turn people away for lack of money. In fact many of the people who are here illegally are taking advantage of our health care system without paying hardly anything for it.
One of the crimes of government run "health care" (and there are many), is the conflict of interest often found in countries that have a "death tax" AND a state run health care system that decides what kind of care a person will have. A sane person would not put their doctor's name in their will! And this is a bad idea for the same reason.
http://www.hubdub.com/m20065/What_will_happen_to_Sarah_Palins_campaign_wardrobe_after_the_election
do you agree the CIA being a good source?
So: USA, Position 180, rate 6.3/1000
over 40 countries have a better rate than the US. Ups, including Canada. Even Cuba has a better rate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate
Are we talking of the same infant-mortality?
That is because in many countries, a mother is encouraged to abort at the first signs of any defect in the child - and they don't include that in their official infant mortality statistics. In the United States, they do all they can to let the child live, and if it dies, it is counted in the statistics.
b) anyway, does it change you wrong comment into a correct comment?
think again before answering.
http://www.globalhealthfacts.org/topic.jsp?i=74
http://www.aneki.com/lowest_mortality.html
http://www.geographyiq.com/ranking/ranking_Infant_Mortality_Rate_aall.htm
no i don't consider the CIA as a good source for infant-mortality rates. i doubt they got their numbers on their own. they proablly got their's from the web like i just did. i could be wrong...maybe the CIA tracks these things.
correct: USA: 14, Canada 10.3 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_birth_rate)
"another thing to consider is the birth rate" - why?
"do you think they have a good health care system?" - I do not think that there is a correlation between quality of health care system and birth rate. But: A good health care system does contribute to a low infant-mortality rate - but is certainly not the only factor.
"*first link has the japan rate.": same source as I referred to, just an older publication. If you don't trust the CIA in this case, you can still take a look at the wikipedia article which contains the United Nations numbers too.
A rate is no absolute number. And why should anyone compare the absolute numbers of births? Of course the US have a much higher number of births than Canada has.
"therefore the USA would have more infant-mortalities"
You started the conversation with the infant-mortality rate - no one has been talking about absolute numbers.
"only source i say you provide was a wikipedia site."
I provided a wikipedia site which showed two sources of statistics: One from the UN, one from the CIA. If these sources would have been cited incorrectly, I think someone would have noticed and corrected it to reflect the original sources.
"their nice but open to error."
But very likely to be corrected as soon someone notices the mistake. In printed media, you cannot expect that. In fact, in printed media you do not even have a change to track who has written something, nor why. Did you ever read the discussions behind the articles? I don't think any editor-written encyclopedia or similar has such activity behind the scenes.
"i have no confindence in anything the UN says"
If you do not trust the UN nor the CIA, I ask you, who do you trust anyway? Its hard to argument if you dismiss all sources ... (btw: the link you provided referred to the same source)
"you don't think a good health care system improves the succes of birth rates?"
I repeat: I do not think that there is a correlation between quality of health care system and birth rate. But: A good health care system does contribute to a low infant-mortality rate - but is certainly not the only factor.
Makes this clearer what I am trying to say to you?
so saying you do not want to "get into the semantics" - that disappoints me. I thought you would be open for discussion of the accusations and assumptions you make. seems your quite ignorant if it comes to that.
so if you don't want to defend your arguments and your position, than keep them it you in the first place.
In reality though, that means very little and can be a result of many factors that we aren't very likely to know. It should still be taken into consideration when discussing health care, though I do not believe it warrants universal health care. This is especially so since Universal health care isn't exactly known for their great quality or service.
comment 43 - the USA does "NOT" have the best infant-mortality rate.
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