triathematician
What will be the result of the Democratic primary (popular vote/pledged delegates/nominee)?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Background:
NOTE: For the purposes of this question, "popular vote" includes the count from the Florida primary, but not the count from the Michigan primary.
"POP" indicates the popular vote with Florida, "PD" represents pledged delegates.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
NOTE: For the purposes of this question, "popular vote" includes the count from the Florida primary, but not the count from the Michigan primary.
Settled
| Obama wins POP & PD, selected as nominee |
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| Obama wins PD, loses POP, selected as nominee |
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| Clinton wins POP, loses PD, selected as nominee |
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| Clinton loses POP & PD, selected as nominee |
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| Other outcome (Clinton wins PD, other nominee, etc.) |
|
Suspend date: Mon 11th Aug 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 6th Jun 2008 2:35pm PDT
Initial likelihoods: Obama wins POP & PD, selected as nominee: 50%, Obama wins PD, loses POP, selected as nominee: 15%, Clinton wins POP, loses PD, selected as nominee: 15%, Clinton loses POP & PD, selected as nominee: 15%, Other outcome (Clinton wins PD, other nominee, etc.): 5%
Action history:
triathematician 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Obama has popular vote and pledged delegates. (market suspended) triathematician: After the last primary, realclearpolitics reports Popular Vote Total 17,495,726 48.1% 17,461,810 48.0% Obama +33,916 +0.1%
There's not enough votes left to make a difference (1% of Montana precincts), so this should be safe to settle as Obama winning pop/pd/selected as nominee.
ryanj
: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Suspend date: Mon 11th Aug 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 6th Jun 2008 2:35pm PDT
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (94)
94 predictions
epicur
kennyk
rightorwrong
predicted Obama wins PD, loses POP, selected as nominee (H$1,000 at 12%)
predicted Other outcome (Clinton wins PD, other nominee, etc.) (H$300 at 12%)
wetz73
predicted Obama wins PD, loses POP, selected as nominee (H$20 at 6%)
predicted Obama wins PD, loses POP, selected as nominee (H$100 at 5%)
predicted Obama wins POP & PD, selected as nominee (H$100 at 83%)
pdxstaci
predicted Obama wins POP & PD, selected as nominee (H$50 at 83%)
myunionComments (3)
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Obama 16,648,940
Clinton 16,207,454
these are the numbers as of 5-21-08 (without Florida)
anyone know what the estimated popular vote would be if Florida was counted?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
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