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Created Sat 19th Jan 11:23pm PST by svenno
All questions » Science » Scientific Discoveries » 

What will be the result of the switching on of the Large Hadron Collider in May?

Voided

The Large Hadron collider (www.lhc.co.uk) is currently under construction in Geneva. It is designed to consume massive amounts of energy throwing particles around a tunnel at massive speeds.
 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

 Nothing, no damage, or interesting results
50%
Unexpected consequences result in the end of life on earth
3%
Switzerland destroyed
1%
Just Geneva destroyed
2%
Disaster with more than 10 dead but Geneva survives
4%
Small fatal accident
6%
No damage, results interesting enough to merit a story on BBC Website
34%
Tue 10th Jun 1:27pm PDT
Reason: After looking at the market I'm going to reluctantly void it. There is to much confusion around the market, and if we were to change the market from what it originally stated, we'd have users wanting their wagers refunded.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported on bbc.co.uk or other respectable news source. All events to occur by the end of June 2008

Suspend date: Fri 2nd May 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Nothing, no damage, or interesting results: 50%, Unexpected consequences result in the end of life on earth: 3%, Switzerland destroyed: 1%, Just Geneva destroyed: 2%, Disaster with more than 10 dead but Geneva survives: 4%, Small fatal accident: 6%, No damage, results interesting enough to merit a story on BBC Website: 34%

Action history:

Created Sat 19th Jan 11:23pm PST by svenno
Edited Sun 2nd Mar 2:18am PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 1:28pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Wed 12th Mar 2:19am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Fri 2nd May 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 9th Jun 8:47pm PDT by katana1021: There's no timeframe as to when this question can be settled properly. All original bets should be refunded.
Voided Tue 10th Jun 1:27pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: After looking at the market I'm going to reluctantly void it. There is to much confusion around the market, and if we were to change the market from what it originally stated, we'd have users wanting their wagers refunded.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported on bbc.co.uk or other respectable news source. All events to occur by the end of June 2008... read all

 

Predictions (277)

277 predictions

17 weeks ago
myunion predicted No damage, results interesting enough to merit a story on BBC Website (H$20 at 83%)
17 weeks ago
eckertkid predicted No damage, results interesting enough to merit a story on BBC Website (H$20 at 83%)
17 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Small fatal accident (H$20 at 11%)
17 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Disaster with more than 10 dead but Geneva survives (H$20 at 1%)
17 weeks ago
newpredict predicted No damage, results interesting enough to merit a story on BBC Website (H$100 at 75%)
more

Comments (29)

  1 theonecalledmichael
They are starting it at a lower energy than Fermilab's Tevatron, which is operated safely all of the time. I would guess no interesting results until they increase to full power...but I still think there will be an article on BBC about it being started up....So, what if there is a mention of it, but no discoveries? What if they find something interesting a month after they start it up? A little too vague for my bet...
posted 27 weeks ago
  2 theonecalledmichael
I do, however, like the question... Interesting reading about the whole thing...Thanks!
posted 27 weeks ago
  3 ratel
I'm hedging my bets on the destruction of all life option. We'll all be gone but as the blackhole swallows us all in I will have the satifaction of knowing I got a really good return on some H$.
posted 27 weeks ago
  4 chris[Admin]
It's amazing the number of bets people are willing to place on Hubdub collapsing / life on earth ending / balances being reset. You may get a split second of satisfaction folks, but don't forget - the leaderboard only updates once an hour!
posted 27 weeks ago
  5 kannypredictor
considering that they already have over 10 articles on the bbc website on the collider i think thtat definitly there will be one more about the opening.
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 goldneye
An article about its opening is not an article about interesting results, so unless they mention some interesting results in that story (and of course nothing else happens) still "Nothing, no damage, or interesting results" should win.
posted 26 weeks ago
  7 mork[Power User]
Whatever the result; even no result, will be found to be interesting by the scientific community. Option one cannot be defined in my opinion.
posted 25 weeks ago
  8 infernalmachine[Admin]
Only 1% chance of life on earth ending? Phew. I can relax.
posted 25 weeks ago
  9 neverlupus
There is of course a chance that there will be a strangelet cascade or that a high energy black hole could stabilize and devour earth, in so far as there is a chance that any of us could spontaneously quantum tunnel to the center of earth and explode. Plus, as chris points out, if the matter in your body and of your world turns to strange matter, or if you are sucked into a black hole, there are larger concerns than how much hubdub money you have won as a result. Amazing people would bet on these out comes.
posted 25 weeks ago
  10 mork[Power User]
There have been no reports of Austin Powers Being aware of this. Any scenario could be likely because we don't 'really' know who is behind this do we?
posted 24 weeks ago
  11 jersjusttrolling
Hey, when we all get suck through a black hole, Hubdub.com will get sucked through with us, won't they? I mean, they'll still be settling markets won't they? I don't like this type of question. ... hmmm, Nigel? Is this another one of those nasty dead pool questions deguised as a Science question? You guys are getting real sly. real sly indeed!
posted 24 weeks ago
  12 mork[Power User]
I assumed the black hole meant we would all be s.o.l.
You can learn something new every day on hubdub !
posted 24 weeks ago
  13 jersjusttrolling
the result of switching on the collider is that it starts, and then, slowly builds up to maximum effectiveness (whatever that might be). So, this question can not be settled until at least major something (more than an honorable mention on the BBC site) happens.

but i really think mork is right. do we "really" know who is behind this?
posted 24 weeks ago
  14 duckie
Well, I for one have 5 on the end of life on earth, just in case.....
posted 24 weeks ago
  15 caveman1144
Why is there no option for "people from the future come and visit us"? I heard a possibility that the switch-on could set the year-zero for time travel - so we could get some time tourists? Im a geek.
posted 24 weeks ago
  16 meanderingsearcher
snickers at caveman's comment (but it could be true)
posted 24 weeks ago
  17 neverlupus
Hold on. There's sure to be articles in papers around the world when this thing fires up for the first time, but it will only be working at a fraction of its full potential. Does there have to be specific mention of the findings in the article? I mean, does the fact that it fired, or the fact that it found something have to merit the article?
posted 24 weeks ago
  18 vee21
No collisions will take place until the thing has been running for two months, and even then it starts up in June.

http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=2&ln=en
posted 21 weeks ago
  19 tisha[Admin]
There does not need to be any mention of specific findings, the last option only requires a newspaper article about it starting up. This was the clarification that was made a few months ago.
posted 18 weeks ago
  20 jchiang
What's happening with this one? Will it be suspended until when (and if) it's finally turned on..?
posted 13 weeks ago
  21 jenniandboys[Admin]
Are we settling based on the thing being on or being tested? It looks like pieces of it are on now, but it won't start actually smashing particles until later this year. The smashing part is what could *possibly* cause all the damage, so I would lean toward unsuspending until then? Opinions?
posted 13 weeks ago
  22 kruijs[Power User]
According to the article vee21 referenced, I propose unsuspending this question with a new suspension date mid august, maybe.
posted 13 weeks ago
  23 infernalmachine[Admin]
i agree. someone should flag this to get the editor's attention.
posted 12 weeks ago
  24 kruijs[Power User]
@infernalmachine: i just did
posted 12 weeks ago
  25 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

Looking at this market. I'm very confused when it was created it asked about what would happen in May. But the settlement rules refer to June. According to the rules this market should really be voided. Because the outcome is not listed in the settlement options. What does everyone think?

Regard,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 12 weeks ago
  26 kruijs[Power User]
My advice:
"Common Sense"
Reword the title so that the month May is not in it.
Reset the suspend date to August.
Provide additional background information plus link to the articles in which is explained the warming up phase before the actual activation of the thing.

Since epicur is no longer around (I'm sorry for that): Has anyone else an other opinion about this?
posted 12 weeks ago
  27 jenniandboys[Admin]
I second krujis.
posted 12 weeks ago
  28 ryanj[Admin]
Hmmm....

After looking at the market I'm going to reluctantly void it. There is to much confusion around the market, and if we were to change the market from what it originally stated, we'd have users wanting their wagers refunded.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 11 weeks ago
  29 kruijs[Power User]
It's a pity.
posted 11 weeks ago

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