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What will be the status of House Bill to eliminate most Federal penalties for possession of marijuana for personal use one year after its introduction?

Current forecast: Other (70% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Other with a probability of 70% (down 1% in last 1 day)

This bill is in the first step in the legislative process. Introduced bills go first to committees that deliberate, investigate, and revise them before they go to general debate. The majority of bills never make it out of committee. Keep in mind that sometimes the text of one bill is incorporated into another bill, If this happens your prediction will apply to the new bill.

Follow it here: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-5843


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Introduced
12%
Scheduled for Debate
8%
Voted on in House
5%
Voted on in Senate
3%
Signed by President
2%
Other
70%
Activity: H$19,137
Question suspends in 21 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 17th Apr 2009 4:59pm PDT (21 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Introduced: 20%, Scheduled for Debate: 25%, Voted on in House: 15%, Voted on in Senate: 10%, Signed by President: 5%, Other: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 27th Apr 12am PDT by mork[Power User]

Suspend date: Fri 17th Apr 2009 4:59pm PDT (21 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

2 days ago
meatballx predicted Introduced (H$50 at 12%)
3 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted Introduced (H$20 at 11%)
3 weeks ago
stgarf predicted Introduced (H$100 at 10%)
4 weeks ago
deelilley predicted Signed by President (H$20 at 2%)
14 weeks ago
gnostic predicted Introduced (H$20 at 10%)
more

Comments (14)

AWESOME question Mork! Thank you sir for bringing attention to this issue! ... Here in Seattle we have the famous Hemp Fest, "where we sit around and talk" which the former President Nixon so notoriously objected to, hahaha, ohh dangerous, we Pot Heads are gonna talk ya to death, hahaha :-P ... I know what Nixon meant, but it sounds soooo silly when you say it now, haha :-D
Anyway, GREAT question man! I hope they legalize it soon man! :-D ... It would really help out an over stressed and over prescription doped up, oops, I meant prescription medicated society :-P ... It gets me how people can jack themselves up on liquor or prescriptions from their supposedly well caring doctor yet Marijuana is illegal! ... Dern big pharma!!! :-D

lucid *cough cough........cough* states
posted 29 weeks ago
I am glad to see you Bet the same way I did Randburg ... We agree on one thing at least :-D
posted 29 weeks ago
  3 Erik
Just curious about the one year settlement date. If memory serves me correctly...if the bill isn't passed in this session of Congress, it's dead.
posted 29 weeks ago
  4 Erik
a year is a long time to tie up $H
posted 29 weeks ago
  5 Erik
Wouldn't a settlement date of Jan. 4, 2009 suffice? Just a suggestion for a great market Congrats!
posted 29 weeks ago
  6 mork[Power User]
I had difficulty anticipating all the possible outcomes when developing this question. (Hubdub is where I learn most about American politics) I anticipate this thing will be flagged for settlement before the settlement date is reached.

I suspected what you say about it being dead at the end of this session of congress as being true but because I was unsure I added the 'other' option. If it turns out to be dead then there are no other options meaning it should be settled.

Therefore the end of this session of congress should be the settlement date.

Thanks for your patience.
posted 29 weeks ago
  8 Erik
Sounds good mork, again, a great market.
posted 29 weeks ago
  9 mork[Power User]
thx erik
posted 29 weeks ago
AWESOME market and I am subscribed to the RSS feed on this one from the Gov website, so ANY news updates I'll get... LEGALIZE IT LEGALIZE IT :-D
posted 28 weeks ago
@ mork (and others) -- the Settlement Date for this hasn't changed ... as far as I can tell.
posted 15 weeks ago
  12 Erik
The background notes: "Keep in mind that sometimes the text of one bill is incorporated into another bill, If this happens your prediction will apply to the new bill."
The link points us to House Resolution 5843.
Am I correct to assume this will have nothing to do with H.R.5842, also introduced by Rep. Frank on the same day? (there are many similarities)
posted 15 weeks ago
  13 Erik
Still waiting on the "new" settlement date. Will this settle before the current session of congress adjourns, or after? I've flagged and sent e-mails. both to no avail.
posted 14 weeks ago
  14 stgarf
In reply to the end date, if you're going to go by the end of the current session of the 110th United States Congress then it'd be January 2009.

"The current US Congress is the 110th Congress. A Congressional session is two years, and the current session began in January, 2007." Source: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_session_is_congress_in
posted 3 weeks ago

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