lv08
What will the 2008 calendar year turnover be for the Prediction Market industry?
Unfortunately no information or estimates regarding settlement for this question could be found and so it has had to be voided.
Background:
Industry participants earn revenues by consulting to firms on the operation of bespoke Prediction Markets and by running markets that charge trading and/or settlement fees. Does that revenue add up to a meaningful figure, or are PMs all hat and no cattle?
Useful links:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market/
http://groups.google.com/group/Prediction-Markets/
http://www.midasoracle.org/
Settlement details:Total 2008 top-line revenue from consulting and exchange operations (but not publishing) for NON-SPORTS Prediction Markets as approximated by the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA; http://www.pmindustry.org/). If the PMIA does not directly offer a figure, settlement to be based on estimates from major business press (Fortune, WSJ, Financial Times, etc.) and/or business-intelligence firms (Gartner, Hoovers, eMarketer, etc.). If more than one estimate is made available, Hubdub to average or otherwise arbitrate as they see fit.
Betfair, Tradesports, Matchbook, WSEX, Betdaq and other sports-trading exchanges are NOT included.
| < $10 million total revenue |
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| >= $10 million and < $15 million total revenue |
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| >= $15 million and < $20 million total revenue |
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| >= $20 million and < $25 million total revenue |
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| >= $25 million and < $30 million total revenue |
| |||
| >= $35 million and < $40 million total revenue |
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| >= $45 million and < $50 million total revenue |
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| >= $50 million in total revenue |
|
- Activity: H$3,471 |
- Predictions: 11 |
Comments: 6
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods: < $10 million total revenue: 25%, >= $10 million and < $15 million total revenue: 20%, >= $15 million and < $20 million total revenue: 20%, >= $20 million and < $25 million total revenue: 15%, >= $25 million and < $30 million total revenue: 5%, >= $35 million and < $40 million total revenue: 5%, >= $45 million and < $50 million total revenue: 5%, >= $50 million in total revenue: 5%
Action history:
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: Unfortunately no information or estimates regarding settlement for this question could be found and so it has had to be voided. 
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 8:59pm PST details 
Get widget!Predictions (11)
bsv2k
predicted >= $10 million and < $15 million total revenue (H$100 at 15%)
cognos
predicted >= $35 million and < $40 million total revenue (H$100 at 5%)Comments (6)
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Can the author explain, please? Perhaps an expression in another language? You've got my interest...
I thought "all hat and no cattle" was in fairly wide use, but for the uninitiated, anti-Texas or incapable-of-Googling:
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/all_hat_and_no_cattle
:-)
This could be a tough one to settle considering that all the companies are private. I am sure there is some way we could find out an estimate though...
In Bocca Al Lupo!
Thanks!
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