Created Sun 2nd Mar 2008 7:56am PST by

What will the margin of victory be for the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary (April 22)?

Settled as Hillary wins by 5-10%

Ok after looking at CNN, MSNBC and FOX I'm going to settle the market based on the current numbers, which won't go above the 10% mark. Here are the links I'm using to settle the market:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.

Background:

Background: Clinton's wide lead in Pennsylvania is narrowing.. what will April bring?

(Percentage of POPULAR vote)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Hillary wins by more than 10%

Hillary wins by 5-10%

69%

Hillary wins by less than 5%

20%

Barack wins by less than 5%

Barack wins by 5-10%

Barack wins by more than 10%

Settled as Hillary wins by 5-10% on Thu 24th Apr 2008 2:15am PST

Activity: H$54,162
Predictions: 363
Comments: 25

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 24th Apr 2008 2:15am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary wins by more than 10%: 10%, Hillary wins by 5-10%: 25%, Hillary wins by less than 5%: 30%, Barack wins by less than 5%: 20%, Barack wins by 5-10%: 10%, Barack wins by more than 10%: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 2nd Mar 2008 7:56am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Clarified Sun 2nd Mar 2008 2:56pm PST by

ryanj

: This market will be voided if Clinton drops out before the Penn. primary.

Suspended Mon 21st Apr 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 2:48am PST by

ryanj

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 2:01pm PST by

ryanj

: Primary coverage starting

Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 2:03pm PST by

ryanj

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 23rd Apr 2008 4:52am PST by

Erik

: http://www.padems.com/
99.09% of districts reporting.
Obama 45.7%
Clinton 54.3%

Settlement requested Wed 23rd Apr 2008 5:38am PST by

markov Level 1, Newbie (H$995)

: PA Election Info For Your Reference:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

Settled as 'Hillary wins by 5-10%' Thu 24th Apr 2008 2:15am PST by

ryanj

: Ok after looking at CNN, MSNBC and FOX I'm going to settle the market based on the current numbers, which won't go above the 10% mark. Here are the links I'm using to settle the market:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.

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Predictions (363)

1 year ago

pasha1978 Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

predicted Hillary wins by 5-10% (H$100 at 69%)

1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

predicted Hillary wins by more than 10% (H$50 at 9%)

1 year ago

simonholey Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,441)

predicted Hillary wins by less than 5% (H$20 at 25%)

1 year ago

triathematician Level 15, Seer (H$439,819)

predicted Hillary wins by less than 5% (H$100 at 23%)

1 year ago

triathematician Level 15, Seer (H$439,819)

predicted Hillary wins by more than 10% (H$100 at 6%)

Comments (25)

ryanj

This market will be voided if Clinton drops out before the Penn. primary.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

Why? The people are still going to vote, the results still be announced. Part of the wagering on this question is the uncertainity.

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

Well I feel it is necessary to ask for a void, the date could be misread. Are we talking about 4/22 2012, 2016, or when. When you begin to disect each question doesnt make you "want" to wager on them, and takes the FUN out of hubdub.

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

What about a void if the question ends up even.

posted 1 year ago

ryanj

If the question ends up even it would be less than 5%.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 1 year ago

newswrangler [Power User]

Well I feel it is necessary to ask for a void, the date could be misread. Are we talking about 4/22 2012, 2016, or when.

HD Rules:

2.2.3 Time, Time Zones and Geography
* If the question creator does not specify the year then it will be assumed that they intended the next instance of that date (not later years)

-- I understand your sentiment vis-a-vis "takes the fun out of it" ;-)

posted 1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Just to clarify, I did intend this question to refer to the Pennsylvania (of the United States of America) democratic primary held on April 22, 2008 here on Earth, the third planet away from the sun. Hillary refers to Hillary Rodham Clinton, former first lady and current New York (United States of America, Earth) senator. Barack refers to Barack Obama current Illinois (United States of America, Earth) senator.

Hope that clears things up for you destry :)

posted 1 year ago

jersjusttrolling Level 15, Seer (H$253,381)

rofl jeniandboys!
But I still think you'll need to which 'sun'. ;)

posted 1 year ago

jersjusttrolling Level 15, Seer (H$253,381)

define which 'sun'.

sry

posted 1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Well I was going to go look up the designation for the sun just for completeness then decided to was too much work for a snarky comment :)

posted 1 year ago

jersjusttrolling Level 15, Seer (H$253,381)

but there are some hubdubbers out there ...

posted 1 year ago

lucidstates Level 14, Prophet (H$173,549)

Please join the HubDubbers Strike! We are protesting the cheater known as "Satyaki" and hubdubs refusal to penalize him for artificially getting himself on the top ladder of the leader boards BY CHEATING!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)

posted 1 year ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

duckie: (This user: Is Eating Spicy Thai Food)

posted 1 year ago

ryanj

Apologies for the confusion regarding suspend times. I thought I'd placed 8 o'clock suspend times. But my math must've been off. All PA markets are now set to a 7:55 end time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

According to CNN with 99% of precincts reporting her lead is 54.6% to 45.3% or a 9.3% lead.

posted 1 year ago

crowe

According to MSNBC it's 55 to 45. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
Hillary wins by 5-10% is the correct prediction.

posted 1 year ago

jpkoester1 Level 14, Prophet (H$111,377)

think we'll have to wait for the decimals though

posted 1 year ago

crowe

New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/ has it at 54.7 to 45.3 with 99% reporting. Prediction (Hillary wins by 5-10%) is the right one.

posted 1 year ago

cognos Level 14, Prophet (H$145,614)

key ... 99% reporting (that's precincts, not votes)
so, what precincts have not reported? are they 'big' precincts? if so, those precincts could shift the pct either direction. if down, no issue. but if they swing up, 10+ could still win.
you must wait for the 'final' count. the 99.9% rule does not apply here. imho.

posted 1 year ago

Erik

http://www.padems.com/
99.09% of districts reporting.
Obama 45.7%
Clinton 54.3%

posted 1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

I think the only two counties left (both at 98%) favor Obama (Deleware and Philadelphia county), so if anything this percentage should tick down incrementally. But its pretty close, so there's no harm in waiting for a day or so.

posted 1 year ago

Erik

99.34% in, still the same split, 8.6% to Clinton

posted 1 year ago

ryanj

I'm going to wait till we can be sure what the exacts of the win are. I'd imagine it should take only a day or two. So please bare with.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 1 year ago

rohan

you want us to bare with you? No way. I believe in being fully clothed. Thanks, but I'd rather not bare.

:-)

posted 1 year ago

ryanj

Ok after looking at CNN, MSNBC and FOX I'm going to settle the market based on the current numbers, which won't go above the 10% mark. Here are the links I'm using to settle the market:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 1 year ago

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