Created Sun 2nd Mar 7:56am PST by

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What will the margin of victory be for the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary (April 22)?

Settled as Hillary wins by 5-10%

Ok after looking at CNN, MSNBC and FOX I'm going to settle the market based on the current numbers, which won't go above the 10% mark. Here are the links I'm using to settle the market:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.

Background:

Clinton's wide lead in Pennsylvania is narrowing.. what will April bring?

(Percentage of POPULAR vote)

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Hillary wins by more than 10%

Hillary wins by 5-10%

69%

Hillary wins by less than 5%

20%

Barack wins by less than 5%

Barack wins by 5-10%

Barack wins by more than 10%

Activity: H$54,162

Settled as Hillary wins by 5-10% on Thu 24th Apr 3:15am PDT

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT

Settlement date: Thu 24th Apr 3:15am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary wins by more than 10%: 10%, Hillary wins by 5-10%: 25%, Hillary wins by less than 5%: 30%, Barack wins by less than 5%: 20%, Barack wins by 5-10%: 10%, Barack wins by more than 10%: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 2nd Mar 7:56am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Clarified Sun 2nd Mar 2:56pm PST by

ryanj

: This market will be voided if Clinton drops out before the Penn. primary.

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 3:48am PDT by

ryanj

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 3:01pm PDT by

ryanj

: Primary coverage starting

Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 3:03pm PDT by

ryanj

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 23rd Apr 5:52am PDT by

Erik: show details

http://www.padems.com/
99.09% of districts reporting.
Obama 45.7%
Clinton 54.3%

Settlement requested Wed 23rd Apr 6:38am PDT by

markov: show details

PA Election Info For Your Reference:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

Settled as 'Hillary wins by 5-10%' Thu 24th Apr 3:15am PDT by

ryanj

: show details

read less

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

Predictions (363)

363 predictions

24 weeks ago

pasha1978 predicted Hillary wins by 5-10% (H$100 at 69%)

24 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

predicted Hillary wins by more than 10% (H$50 at 9%)

24 weeks ago

simonholey predicted Hillary wins by less than 5% (H$20 at 25%)

24 weeks ago

triathematician predicted Hillary wins by less than 5% (H$100 at 23%)

24 weeks ago

triathematician predicted Hillary wins by more than 10% (H$100 at 6%)

Comments (25)

ryanj

This market will be voided if Clinton drops out before the Penn. primary.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

posted 32 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

Why? The people are still going to vote, the results still be announced. Part of the wagering on this question is the uncertainity.

posted 31 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

Well I feel it is necessary to ask for a void, the date could be misread. Are we talking about 4/22 2012, 2016, or when. When you begin to disect each question doesnt make you "want" to wager on them, and takes the FUN out of hubdub.

posted 30 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

What about a void if the question ends up even.

posted 30 weeks ago

ryanj

If the question ends up even it would be less than 5%.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 30 weeks ago

newswrangler [Power User]

Well I feel it is necessary to ask for a void, the date could be misread. Are we talking about 4/22 2012, 2016, or when.

HD Rules:

2.2.3 Time, Time Zones and Geography
* If the question creator does not specify the year then it will be assumed that they intended the next instance of that date (not later years)

-- I understand your sentiment vis-a-vis "takes the fun out of it" ;-)

posted 30 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Just to clarify, I did intend this question to refer to the Pennsylvania (of the United States of America) democratic primary held on April 22, 2008 here on Earth, the third planet away from the sun. Hillary refers to Hillary Rodham Clinton, former first lady and current New York (United States of America, Earth) senator. Barack refers to Barack Obama current Illinois (United States of America, Earth) senator.

Hope that clears things up for you destry :)

posted 30 weeks ago

jersjusttrolling

rofl jeniandboys!
But I still think you'll need to which 'sun'. ;)

posted 30 weeks ago

jersjusttrolling

define which 'sun'.

sry

posted 30 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Well I was going to go look up the designation for the sun just for completeness then decided to was too much work for a snarky comment :)

posted 30 weeks ago

jersjusttrolling

but there are some hubdubbers out there ...

posted 30 weeks ago

lucidstates

Please join the HubDubbers Strike! We are protesting the cheater known as "Satyaki" and hubdubs refusal to penalize him for artificially getting himself on the top ladder of the leader boards BY CHEATING!

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lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)

posted 27 weeks ago

duckie

duckie: (This user: Is Eating Spicy Thai Food)

posted 26 weeks ago

ryanj

Apologies for the confusion regarding suspend times. I thought I'd placed 8 o'clock suspend times. But my math must've been off. All PA markets are now set to a 7:55 end time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 24 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

According to CNN with 99% of precincts reporting her lead is 54.6% to 45.3% or a 9.3% lead.

posted 24 weeks ago

crowe

According to MSNBC it's 55 to 45. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/
Hillary wins by 5-10% is the correct prediction.

posted 24 weeks ago

jpkoester1

think we'll have to wait for the decimals though

posted 24 weeks ago

crowe

New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/ has it at 54.7 to 45.3 with 99% reporting. Prediction (Hillary wins by 5-10%) is the right one.

posted 24 weeks ago

cognos [Power User]

key ... 99% reporting (that's precincts, not votes)
so, what precincts have not reported? are they 'big' precincts? if so, those precincts could shift the pct either direction. if down, no issue. but if they swing up, 10+ could still win.
you must wait for the 'final' count. the 99.9% rule does not apply here. imho.

posted 24 weeks ago

Erik

http://www.padems.com/
99.09% of districts reporting.
Obama 45.7%
Clinton 54.3%

posted 24 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

I think the only two counties left (both at 98%) favor Obama (Deleware and Philadelphia county), so if anything this percentage should tick down incrementally. But its pretty close, so there's no harm in waiting for a day or so.

posted 24 weeks ago

Erik

99.34% in, still the same split, 8.6% to Clinton

posted 24 weeks ago

ryanj

I'm going to wait till we can be sure what the exacts of the win are. I'd imagine it should take only a day or two. So please bare with.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 24 weeks ago

rohan

you want us to bare with you? No way. I believe in being fully clothed. Thanks, but I'd rather not bare.

:-)

posted 24 weeks ago

ryanj

Ok after looking at CNN, MSNBC and FOX I'm going to settle the market based on the current numbers, which won't go above the 10% mark. Here are the links I'm using to settle the market:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 24 weeks ago

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