
What will the margin of victory be for the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary (April 22)?
Ok after looking at CNN, MSNBC and FOX I'm going to settle the market based on the current numbers, which won't go above the 10% mark. Here are the links I'm using to settle the market:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.
Background:>
(Percentage of POPULAR vote)
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Hillary wins by more than 10% |
| |||
| Hillary wins by 5-10% |
| |||
| Hillary wins by less than 5% |
| |||
| Barack wins by less than 5% |
| |||
| Barack wins by 5-10% |
| |||
| Barack wins by more than 10% |
|
- Activity: H$54,162 |
- Predictions: 363 |
Comments: 25
Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 24th Apr 2008 2:15am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Hillary wins by more than 10%: 10%, Hillary wins by 5-10%: 25%, Hillary wins by less than 5%: 30%, Barack wins by less than 5%: 20%, Barack wins by 5-10%: 10%, Barack wins by more than 10%: 5%
Action history:
99.09% of districts reporting.
Obama 45.7%
Clinton 54.3%
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.
Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 24th Apr 2008 2:15am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (363)
Comments (25)
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Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
HD Rules:
2.2.3 Time, Time Zones and Geography
* If the question creator does not specify the year then it will be assumed that they intended the next instance of that date (not later years)
-- I understand your sentiment vis-a-vis "takes the fun out of it" ;-)
Hope that clears things up for you destry :)
But I still think you'll need to which 'sun'. ;)
sry
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Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
Hillary wins by 5-10% is the correct prediction.
so, what precincts have not reported? are they 'big' precincts? if so, those precincts could shift the pct either direction. if down, no issue. but if they swing up, 10+ could still win.
you must wait for the 'final' count. the 99.9% rule does not apply here. imho.
99.09% of districts reporting.
Obama 45.7%
Clinton 54.3%
Cheers,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
:-)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21660914#PA
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
http://elections.foxnews.com/pennsylvania/
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
All of these sites mark the margin between 5-!0%.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
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