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What will the voter turnout be for the 2008 Presidential election?

Settled as Turnout > 60%

Background: List of past voter turnout percentages is here:
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php

Market refers to V.A.P. = Voting Age Population

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Options for prediction are not inclusive meaning >50 is not included in >55.

Market refers to V.A.P. = Voting Age Population

 
Forecast history %
Turnout > 50%
10%
Turnout > 55%
27%
Turnout > 60%
62%
Settled as Turnout > 60% on Fri 7th Nov 2008 1:40pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 7th Nov 2008 1:40pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Turnout > 50%: 20%, Turnout > 55%: 40%, Turnout > 60%: 40%

Action history:

Created Wed 2nd Apr 2008 8:46am PST by ryanj
Edited Thu 3rd Apr 2008 8:50am PST by ryanj
Settlement requested Thu 3rd Apr 2008 3:22pm PST by dan_the_omniscient: sorry for using the settlement request, but since ive flagged the question once i cannot do so again, even for a different reason. perhaps this can be fixed? but thats not why i called...

can u add an option for less than 50% turnout?
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 2008 3:57pm PST by pixelpaws: 64.1% turnout

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i34ao3tow5yhj2v7v24HM_wbT8JQD948LJRG0
Settlement requested Fri 7th Nov 2008 1:37pm PST by johnoday: 2008 231,229,580 TBD TBD 148,218,161 64.10%

All new data is above 60% turnout.
Settled as 'Turnout > 60%' Fri 7th Nov 2008 1:40pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 7th Nov 2008 1:40pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (134)

1 year ago
gtown[Power User] predicted Turnout > 55% (H$5 at 27%)
1 year ago
sdchargers[Power User] predicted Turnout > 60% (H$444 at 59%)
1 year ago
onedave[Power User] predicted Turnout > 60% (H$20 at 55%)
1 year ago
greengenie predicted Turnout > 60% (H$100 at 54%)
1 year ago
hubdubbob predicted Turnout > 55% (H$190 at 31%)

Comments (3)

  1 bigken1
Heh, great question.... I think question is well understood. Nevertheless, for future, numbers are better written as
60%>=T>55%... etc...
posted 1 year ago
It's interesting that <50% is not an option - not that I would have chosen it - but most of the elections since 1960 have had turnout <50%.
posted 1 year ago
It wasn't most of the elections since 1960. Only 1996, 1924, and 1928 for the 20th century had turnout < 50%.
posted 1 year ago

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