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When the Fed meets on March 18th, how will they (if at all) adjust rates?

Settled as reduced 75 basis points

cut of 3/4
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080318/fed_credit_crisis.html

Background:

Background: Rates have been dropping. Indicators point toward a continuation of the trend. What do you predict will happpen?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
no change
23%
reduced 25 basis points
3%
reduced 50 basis points
6%
reduced 75 basis points
16%
reduced more than 75 basis points
51%
increased 25 basis points
0%
increased more than 25 basis points
0%
Settled as reduced 75 basis points on Tue 18th Mar 2008 10:46am PST

Suspend date: Mon 17th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 18th Mar 2008 10:46am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 17th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: no change: 5%, reduced 25 basis points: 20%, reduced 50 basis points: 40%, reduced 75 basis points: 20%, reduced more than 75 basis points: 5%, increased 25 basis points: 5%, increased more than 25 basis points: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Mar 2008 7:29am PST by rightorwrong
Suspended Mon 17th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 18th Mar 2008 10:23am PST by rightorwrong: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080318/fed_credit_crisis.html

adjusted down 75 points
Settlement requested Tue 18th Mar 2008 10:39am PST by pics4d: 75 basis point cut http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080318/fed_credit_crisis.html
Settled as 'reduced 75 basis points' Tue 18th Mar 2008 10:46am PST by andrew: cut of 3/4
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080318/fed_credit_crisis.html

Suspend date: Mon 17th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 18th Mar 2008 10:46am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 17th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (419)

1 year ago
questmaster predicted reduced 75 basis points (H$50 at 17%)
1 year ago
questmaster predicted reduced 50 basis points (H$20 at 5%)
1 year ago
questmaster predicted reduced 25 basis points (H$20 at 2%)
1 year ago
rohan predicted reduced 75 basis points (H$100 at 11%)
1 year ago
pics4d predicted reduced 75 basis points (H$500 at 14%)

Comments (19)

  1 duckie
really? you guys think 50? with the DOW this week? I really think they are gonna flood it. I dont think that it will help but as best i can tell they dont have any better ideas, and they need to do something.
posted 1 year ago
i think 75
posted 1 year ago
  3 destry[Admin]
Bloomberg is reporting there is 60% chance that it will be full percentage point.
posted 1 year ago
Try this one:
NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said it now
expects the Federal Reserve to cut benchmark interest rates by
half a percentage point to 2.50 percent at its March 18 meeting
as growth worries eclipse inflation concerns. Previously, the investment bank had expected the Fed's
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reduce the federal
funds rate by a quarter point.
posted 1 year ago
  5 duckie
I'm with Jers on this one.
posted 1 year ago
they (reuters) are only saying that because us hubdubbers refuse to take positions on what 'they' say. we're an indepedent bunch, and we'll decide the outcomes.
posted 1 year ago
Wake up sports fans! Bush does not want an over correction of the market!!! A 25-50 point drop of the market would be perfect. John Maynard Keynes would do the the 25-50 number if he were still alive!!! It is obvious!
posted 1 year ago
but majority of the fed board (but not the chair, admittedly) want the add'l .25, and if they get their way, it'll drop .75. I'm hoping they do, because i've got $H placed.
posted 1 year ago
Bush doesn't know Keynesian Theory. He's been of doing to little, to late. Look for 'bold' move to 'boost' the economy, even if it causes an overcorrection. When was the last time Bush and his cronies did something that actually made sense?
posted 1 year ago
'been accused of'
posted 1 year ago
  11 duckie
i appreciate the Hdubers who are betting on the "increase by more than .25" option, thats really brave.
posted 1 year ago
  12 randburg
This question clearly asks: What will happen AT THE MEETING ON MARCH 18TH? -- NOT prior to the meeting and NOT after the meeting, but AT THE MEETING "when the Fed meets on March 18th" -- "how will they (if at all) adjust rates" AT THAT TIME?
posted 1 year ago
  13 randburg
Actually there is another hubdub question about BEFORE the meeting on March 18th:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_Fed_make_another_rate_cut_before_its_next_scheduled_meeting_on_March_18_1394/view
posted 1 year ago
  14 randburg
The Fed is infusing a lot of money into the economy for the banks and has ALREADY changed the rate as of today Monday (or was it yesterday). Are they really going to cut the rate a SECOND TIME this week on Tuesday??
posted 1 year ago
  15 buckeyetom
The answer to this question is starting to become very obvious at this point. The cut has been done. So what will happen on March 18th will be No Change.
posted 1 year ago
  17 gingerboi
doesn't the market behave like an eight year old? It needs ice cream with chocolate frosting and ONLY that will do! As we talk, that previous model student and student council President Bears Stearn (top of the volleyball team too) is in the lower playground rec toilet smoking crack, cutting his hair off and putting it into little envelopes for relatives with instructions about which rap music to play at his funeral. Maybe an overly colourful analogy but I'm glad I don't work at the Bear where apparently company ownership was particularly high (ie Enron). My point is the market needs a clip over the ear and a ruler across the bum, which I assume those confused men in the high tower will do shortly after visiting a prostitute. Markets have nothing to do with rational Keynesian economics in this situation.
posted 1 year ago
  18 randburg
Whoa! We didn't do at all well on this one...only 16% probability of getting it right? Looks like most of us lost on this one.
posted 1 year ago
  19 satyaki
75 it is
posted 1 year ago

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