Created Thu 27th Mar 2008 5:17am PST by

When will Apple's share of the US computer market hit 20%?

Settled as Not before 1st June 2009

Background: Apple's market share of the US computer market is up from 9% in Feb 07 to 14% in Feb 08. http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyId=12&articleId=9069298 When will they hit 20%?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source in reference to official figures released by Apple Inc or a respected third party market research firm. (Must include retail store sales plus online). All date ranges given are INCLUSIVE of stated dates.

Forecast history %

on or before July 31st 2008

1st Aug to 31st Dec 2008

1st to 31st Jan 2009

1st to 28th Feb 2009

1st to 31st March 2009

1st to 30th April 2009

1st to 31st May 2009

Not before 1st June 2009

99%

Settled as Not before 1st June 2009 on Sun 23rd Aug 2:20am PST

Activity: H$29,416
Predictions: 89
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 23rd Aug 2:20am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st May 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: on or before July 31st 2008: 5%, 1st Aug to 31st Dec 2008: 10%, 1st to 31st Jan 2009: 10%, 1st to 28th Feb 2009: 15%, 1st to 31st March 2009: 20%, 1st to 30th April 2009: 20%, 1st to 31st May 2009: 10%, Not before 1st June 2009: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 27th Mar 2008 5:17am PST by

tomg

Edited Thu 27th Mar 2008 5:35am PST by

tomg

Edited Thu 27th Mar 2008 5:36am PST by

tomg

Suspended Sun 31st May 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'Not before 1st June 2009' Sun 23rd Aug 2:20am PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

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Predictions (89)

25 weeks ago

mattc

predicted Not before 1st June 2009 (H$200 at 99%)

25 weeks ago

h3llboy Level 1, Newbie (H$183)

predicted Not before 1st June 2009 (H$100 at 99%)

25 weeks ago

chull

predicted Not before 1st June 2009 (H$1,000 at 98%)

25 weeks ago

bipedprimate Level 10, Genius (H$10,167)

predicted Not before 1st June 2009 (H$1,648 at 97%)

27 weeks ago

greggles Level 12, Guru (H$28,293)

predicted Not before 1st June 2009 (H$100 at 96%)

Comments (5)

sqlman [Admin]

When will Apple's share of the US computer market hit 20%? Possibly very soon: http://www.theonion.com/content/video/apple_introduces_revolutionary

;)

posted 45 weeks ago

bipedprimate Level 10, Genius (H$10,167)

Why is this issue not settled yet?

posted 13 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,443)

bipedprimate - nobody has sent in a settlement request. i usually try to help newer members, but i have no idea where to get the info to settle this. i'll flag it for you and see if that helps.

posted 13 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,443)

i don't know if this site will settle the question.

Apple may have less than 10 percent of the US computer market in terms of unit sales, but it's still grabbing a much larger percentage of US computer revenue, according to the latest numbers from NPD.

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2009/07/apple-nabs-91-of-premium-computer-market-in-june.ars

posted 13 weeks ago

bipedprimate Level 10, Genius (H$10,167)

dieseldog - thanks, i didn't realize it could be flagged.

Here are a couple more pages with stats:

http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=21183

http://www.edibleapple.com/apple-falls-to-5th-in-us-computer-sales-maintains-76-market-share/

They're talking about "% of units shipped" rather "% of market share", but given the declining sales, it's not possible for Apple to have anything close to %20 of the US market share.

posted 13 weeks ago

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