Created Fri 11th Jan 2008 12:33pm PST by

When will Bin Laden be captured/killed?

Settled as 2010 or later

Background:

Settlement details:This question will settle in the period in which Bin Laden is reported to be captured or killed. The relevant date will be of the capture or death rather than the date of report. Source of settlement will be the New York Times and two other respected news publications.

Forecast history %

Jan to Jun 2008

Jul to Dec 2008

2009

2010 or later

98%

Settled as 2010 or later on Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:22pm PST

Activity: H$9,886
Predictions: 34
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:22pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Jan to Jun 2008: 8%, Jul to Dec 2008: 12%, 2009: 20%, 2010 or later: 60%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jan 2008 12:33pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:01pm PST by

lesley [Admin]

Settled as '2010 or later' Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:22pm PST by

destry [Admin]

hide

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 9:22pm PST details

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Predictions (34)

14 weeks ago

mork

predicted 2010 or later (H$2,500 at 96%)

24 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,712,976)

predicted 2010 or later (H$4,000 at 81%)

36 weeks ago

metaldev Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,107)

predicted 2010 or later (H$100 at 65%)

36 weeks ago

oberon Level 1, Newbie (H$296)

predicted 2010 or later (H$100 at 64%)

39 weeks ago

alertedclub Level 11, Legend (H$17,160)

predicted 2010 or later (H$200 at 61%)

Comments (1)

mork

Tuesday Map: Osama bin Laden's current location
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/02/17/tuesday_map_osama_bin_ladens_current_location

posted 1 year ago

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Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags

score: 10

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