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When will Mugabe lose power?

Background:

Settlement details:This market will be settled in the period that Mugabe ceases to be president of Zimbabwe, whether through resignation, democratic vote or overthrow. He will still considered to be in power if he retains the presidency even if he loses effective control of the country. Settlement source will be the New York Times.

 
Forecast history %
Jan to Jun 2008
1%
Jul to Dec 2008
0%
2009
9%
2010 or later
90%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Jan to Jun 2008: 15%, Jul to Dec 2008: 25%, 2009: 30%, 2010 or later: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jan 2008 12:30pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:49pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Thu 11th Sep 2008 1:44pm PST by kruijs[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Will he actually lose ALL of his power?
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnLB375511.html
Unsuspended Thu 11th Sep 2008 4:28pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: Based on the settlement details and the news that Mugabe will remain President, I'm re-opening this question. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/12/zimbabwe

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (387)

19 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted 2009 (H$100 at 7%)
22 weeks ago
peterwindlehill predicted 2009 (H$30 at 1%)
25 weeks ago
peterwindlehill predicted 2009 (H$20 at 3%)
28 weeks ago
peterwindlehill predicted 2009 (H$20 at 10%)
28 weeks ago
pkay predicted 2009 (H$100 at 8%)

Comments (12)

Report: Mugabe privately concedes defeat
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23929752/
posted 1 year ago
I am sticking with July-December 2008 This miserable scumbag is 84 years old. The median lifespan
in Zimbabwe is under 40 years. He would be hard to buy life insurance for in a Western country.
posted 1 year ago
Look this is already a question! In fact its a question i made!
posted 1 year ago
@ dragonfangxl -- yup :-| This question was one of the first questions posted at the beginning of Hubdub (January 11, 2008) ... a lot of things have changed since then -- except, maybe that Mugabe is still around :-(

Your question, while similar, is different -- in that it is concerned with Morgan Tsvangirai. No doubt HD users who like this question will also want to make predictions on yours!

"Will Zimbabwe run a new election this year with Morgan Tsvangirai?"

<http://www.hubdub.com/m10328/Will_Zimbabwe_run_a_new_election_this_year_with_Morgan_Tsvangirai>
posted 1 year ago
Hi. It's Patrick (patrick@hubdub.com), the new World Category Editor as of Aug. 1, 2008.

This question is fine. I agree with everything newswrangler says in comment #4.

Both questions are fine, because they do not entirely duplicate each other. For instance, a new election could occur, but Mugabe could stay. Or Mugabe could lose power without any Tsvangirai-involved election. Similar, but not the same.
posted 1 year ago
  6 duckie
this new market value thing sucks. i have questions like this one that have gone up %20 since i bet on them which i cant cash out of for as much as i payed! WTF? how am i gonna make mone if i have o actually guess correctly and not just anticipate the swing?
posted 1 year ago
@duckie This is an old question from the start of the year. It has the old Market Scoring Rule, which jumps around a lot, and also makes cashing-in predictions expensive, especially if they are worth a lot. That's why newer markets have a different MSR. But when the new MSR came in, older markets didn't change over.
posted 1 year ago
  8 duckie
I see.
posted 1 year ago
  9 growthy
--- Mugabe hints at Cabinet without opposition ---

President Robert Mugabe hinted he may form a Cabinet without the opposition and call for early elections in Zimbabwe to resolve the impasse over a stalled power-sharing deal.

"If we call for elections, you must be prepared," Mugabe told members of his ruling ZANU-PF party during an appearance on state television late Thursday.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/12/05/zimbabwe.mugabe/
posted 50 weeks ago
President Obama leads US drive to topple Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article5600659.ece
President Obama wants a fresh approach to toppling Robert Mugabe and is discussing with aides an unprecedented, US-led diplomatic push to get tough new UN sanctions imposed against the Zimbabwe regime, The Times has learned.

During talks Mr Obama has had with his top Africa advisers in recent weeks, the central idea they focused on was taking the issue of Zimbabwe before the UN Security Council, but for the first time to combine such a move with an intense diplomatic effort to persuade Russia and China not to block the initiative.

[more at the link]
posted 42 weeks ago
  11 bullhead
what if he die, or collapse.
asylum - in United Kingdom - :::)))
posted 40 weeks ago
  12 sqlman[Admin]
Here's an update on Migabe's new "power sharing" paradigm:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29134750/

The more things change, the more they stay the same, eh? :)
posted 40 weeks ago

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