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When will the US pull out of Iraq?

Background:

Settlement details:This question will settle in the period during which US troop numbers drop below 20,000 (from around 160,000 in early 2008). Source will be the Brookings Institute (http://www.brookings.edu/saban/iraq-index.aspx).

 
Forecast history %
2008
0%
2009
1%
2010
25%
2011 or later
74%
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2008: 2%, 2009: 20%, 2010: 40%, 2011 or later: 38%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jan 2008 11:32am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:46pm PST by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details

 

Predictions (46)

5 weeks ago
frogchop predicted 2011 or later (H$1,000 at 68%)
11 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted 2011 or later (H$20 at 61%)
31 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 2010 (H$1,000 at 19%)
31 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 2011 or later (H$5,000 at 68%)
31 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 2010 (H$1,000 at 38%)

Comments (13)

Does "pull out" mean "100% of all troops"?
posted 1 year ago
It means drop below 20,000 troops as defined in the settlement details. I put that in as there could be a very long period of having non-combat troops in the country.

posted 1 year ago
Amazing -- I looked at the Settlement Details before I asked the question.
Or so I thought.
"Looked, but didn't see." -- I hate when that happens!
posted 1 year ago
It is starting to happen!

Iraqis to take charge of Green Zone in 2009
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-12-29-iraqnews_N.htm?csp=34

When the calendar flips to 2009 on Thursday, Iraq's government will gain control over the Green Zone and its own airspace and some jurisdiction over security contractors under the terms of a deal that will fundamentally change how the United States operates here.

The changes, outlined in a landmark security agreement the Bush administration signed in November, are part of the broadest transfer of responsibilities to Iraqi hands since 2004, when the government regained sovereignty from the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA).
posted 44 weeks ago
  6 Erik
I thought we were told He would have us out by summer...
posted 44 weeks ago
Oh I sincerely hope they treat the green zone with the same love and kindness we've shown their country....
posted 44 weeks ago
  8 Erik
wow, riot...I applaud you and your new, enlightened view of the world. I couldn't agree with you more.
posted 44 weeks ago
I can't wait to own a wrist watch branded: Made in Iraq
posted 44 weeks ago
No worries there, FoF....KBR will have their Yemeni slaves on it in no time.
posted 44 weeks ago
Fun fact for the night: "Yemen has one of the world's highest birth rates; the average Yemeni woman bears seven children." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen
posted 44 weeks ago
  12 lola
US Troops To Leave Iraq By August 2010
By Pamela Hess & Anne Gearan | Associated Press

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama plans to remove all U.S. combat troops from Iraq by August of next year, administration officials said Tuesday, ending the war that helped define his upstart presidential campaign _ although a little more slowly than he promised. The withdrawal plan _ an announcement could come as early as this week _ could help Obama turn his attention to another campaign pledge: Deploying more troops to Afghanistan, a region he calls the central front in the war on terrorism.

The timetable is a compromise. Removing so many people and tons of equipment presents logistical difficulties. Some commanders and advisers worry that security gains could backslide in Iraq if troops are brought out too soon, while others think the bulk of U.S. combat work is long since done.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/24/us-troops-to-leave-iraq-b_n_169582.html
posted 36 weeks ago
Iraq Restricts U.S. Forces
American Officials See Link Between Limits, Spate of Attacks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/17/AR2009071703634_pf.html
The Iraqi government has moved to sharply restrict the movement and activities of U.S. forces in a new reading of a six-month-old U.S.-Iraqi security agreement that has startled American commanders and raised concerns about the safety of their troops.

In a curt missive issued by the Baghdad Operations Command on July 2 -- the day after Iraqis celebrated the withdrawal of U.S. troops to bases outside city centers -- Iraq's top commanders told their U.S. counterparts to "stop all joint patrols" in Baghdad. It said U.S. resupply convoys could travel only at night and ordered the Americans to "notify us immediately of any violations of the agreement."

The strict application of the agreement coincides with what U.S. military officials in Washington say has been an escalation of attacks against their forces by Iranian-backed Shiite extremist groups, to which they have been unable to fully respond.

If extremists realize "some of the limitations that we have, that's a vulnerability they could use against us," a senior U.S. military intelligence official said. "The fact is that some of these are very politically sensitive targets" thought to be close to the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

The new guidelines are a reflection of rising tensions between the two governments. Iraqi leaders increasingly see the agreement as an opportunity to show their citizens that they are now unequivocally in charge and that their dependence on the U.S. military is minimal and waning.
[More at the link...]
posted 16 weeks ago

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