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When will the sun go into its Red Giant phase, ultimately boiling off the Earth's atmosphere?

Voided

Impossible to settle


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If none are in existence at that time, any alien news source will do.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

10 years from now
5%
500 years from now
5%
100 million years from now
5%
1 billion years from now
30%
5-6 billion years from now
50%
Never -- the Sun is eternal
5%
Voided Wed 20th Feb 2008 5:21pm PST

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: 10 years from now: 5%, 500 years from now: 5%, 100 million years from now: 5%, 1 billion years from now: 30%, 5-6 billion years from now: 50%, Never -- the Sun is eternal: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 20th Feb 2008 12:08am PST by gradgrind
Voided Wed 20th Feb 2008 5:21pm PST by lesley[Admin]: Impossible to settle

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (10)

10 predictions

46 weeks ago
paganagnostic predicted 100 million years from now (H$20 at 4%)
46 weeks ago
mbwanderer predicted 5-6 billion years from now (H$100 at 65%)
46 weeks ago
boozed predicted 1 billion years from now (H$20 at 21%)
46 weeks ago
brianholmes predicted 5-6 billion years from now (H$400 at 62%)
46 weeks ago
jbolli predicted 5-6 billion years from now (H$100 at 58%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 jbolli
I'd wager on 1 day BEFORE President McCain would pull US troops out of Iraq.
posted 46 weeks ago
  2 pepe
you should have some time rofl ;-)
in fact 5-6 billions is probably right, but what if newer research finds out that there are 7 or 8 billions remaining???
posted 46 weeks ago
This question is impossible to settle. (Does not include wind chill ;-)
[Flagged]
posted 46 weeks ago
Well, I'll be here so I hope Hubdub is here to payout.
posted 46 weeks ago
  5 ringo
So I guess the sun will stay and finish the job then. Sweet!
I say the sun skips the red giant phase... (all life on earth would already be dead by that point anyway) and goes straight to a black hole, bypassing many laws of physics and pissing of many liberals near Alpha Centuri, their home sun. Their leader, Dennis Kusinich (sp? dont care), will personally hitch a ride on a passing spaceship to complain to the 5 people who care.

Its amazing how some people will inject politics into ANYTHING. Get a life.
posted 46 weeks ago
  6 jbolli
Making a joke based on McCain's recent assertion he'd stay in Iraq 1000 years if he could. Obvious parallel there, he'd like to stay 'til past the point life on earth is exterminated. That makes me a liberal?

Learn to read.
posted 46 weeks ago
  7 markov
This is great! The question and settlement details were funny enough, the comments are even better!
posted 46 weeks ago
  8 gradgrind
Well, sadly the question got voided (personally, I think Hubdub should have had more faith in itself and its longevity and ability to settle the question when it comes due). But no matter. Fun was had by those who bet and commented, so my work here is done.
posted 46 weeks ago

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