kindah Which Candidate Will Be Elected President (Multiple Party/ November End Date)
Closing the market for reasons stated in the background info.
Background:
Starting today I want to start to phase this question out. I will not void yet, but I've opened up a new question just like this one, but with more acceptable outcomes. The question is located here: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047/View
From now on please start using this market to make predictions on who will be the next president. Thanks for help in this matter, and apologies about the confusion.
Cheers,
Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
Voided
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John McCain (Rep.) |
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Hillary Clinton (Dem.) |
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Mitt Romney (Rep.) |
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Barack Obama (Dem.) |
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Mike Huckabee (Rep.) |
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Ron Paul (Rep.) |
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Mike Gravel (Dem.) |
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Alan Keyes (Rep). |
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Other (ANYONE ELSE NOT LISTED ABOVE / INDEPENDANT) |
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Settlement details:
As reported by http://www.cnn.com/, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/, http://www.foxnews.com/.
All Sites Must Agree, otherwise Question Shall remain suspended until Agreement IS Reached As To "The President Elect" Of The United States Of America.
**Note This Question Will Be Suspended(Monday, November 3, 2008 @ 8:59pm PST(11:59 pm EST), But NOT Settled (Paid)At That Date And Time, Settlement Will Occur, Again When The Sites Listed Above Have Reached Agreement.***
Please Also Note In The Event The Winning Candidate Shall Be Different From The Person Who ActuallTake The Office, Due To Other UNFORESEEN Reason; Death, Being Ruled Ineligable By Court, Congress, Or Any Other Event Unrelated To The Agreement As To Who Was Chosen President Elect Shall Have NO Purpose In Dispute Resolution And Agrees Hubdub, And The Question Creator, Are Free From, Blame Should This Question Be Settled By Some Event After Thee Election Except As It Applies To The Election Of President Elect Occurring November 4, 2008(A Time By Which THe Question Will Be Suspended Within The Whole Of The United States).
Candidates Choosen Are Still Contending, As Of February 3,2008 Other Has Been Added To Indicate Any Candidate Not Listed Individually !
IN THE EVENT OF DISPUTE The Abreviations (Rep.) OR (Dem.) Next To Candidates Names Should Be Disregarded, If Your Candidate Is Named Below His Party Affiliation Shall Not Trump His Name (His/Her Name Remains Effective For INDEPENDANT Campaign Concerning General Election Results.)
HubDub Shall Have Administrator Shal Have Final Desicion These Terms Shall Be Used To Guide Him/Her To Fairly Decide Any Dispute!
DO NOT WAGER IF YOU DO NOT AGREE!
EDITOR PLEASE CONSIDER THESE RULES WHEN DECIDING IF VOIDING WOULD BE CONSIDERED NESSECARY/APPROPRITE DUE TO DISAGREEMENT WITH ALL/ANY TERMS, LISTED!
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
John McCain (Rep.): 10%, Hillary Clinton (Dem.): 14%, Mitt Romney (Rep.): 9%, Barack Obama (Dem.): 16%, Mike Huckabee (Rep.): 7%, Ron Paul (Rep.): 7%, Mike Gravel (Dem.): 3%, Alan Keyes (Rep).: 1%, Other (ANYONE ELSE NOT LISTED ABOVE / INDEPENDANT): 33%
Action history:
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Closing the market for reasons stated in the background info.
Settlement details: As reported by http://www.cnn.com/, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/, http://www.foxnews.com/. ... read all
Predictions (721)
721 predictions
duckie
markovComments (32)
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Stop it.
"IN THE EVENT OF DISPUTE The Abreviations (Rep.) OR (Dem.) Next To Candidates Names Should Be Disregarded, If Your Candidate Is Named Below His Party Affiliation Shall Not Trump His Name (His/Her Name Remains Effective For INDEPENDANT Campaign Concerning General Election Results.)"
If Thats What You Are Looking For, But This Question Is For President Elect And A NON Decision Is EXTREMELY Unlikely, All You Would Need To Settle THIS Question Is For A Candidate To Be Announced As "President Elect" Without ANY Counts Whatsoever.
Starting today I want to start to phase this question out. I will not void yet, but I've opened up a new question just like this one, but with more acceptable outcomes. The question is located here: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2006/View
From now on please start using this market to make predictions on who will be the next president. Thanks for help in this matter, and apologies about the confusion.
Cheers,
Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047/View
This Is Not Fair To Anyone Who Has Allready Bet On This Question, Nor Is It Fair To The Creator, That You Would Void This Question After Letting It Run For a Week Please Reconsider And Should You Come To The Conclusion YOU ARE In ERROR, Please Fix The Text, Asking To See Settlement Terms etc..... This EXTREMELY Discourages Question Creation And Even Placing Bets, In Other words If We Can Depend On NOTHING, Why Come Here?
Two duplicate markets were made, and I was unable to catch them because of the Feb. 5 rush. Both of these markets would have been voided if I had caught them and examined them but to my own fault that did not happen. I voided one of them once I found it, unfortunately as we know no one likes their markets being voided. So with this one (the other duplicate) I'm giving people time to cash out. You may disagree with this but be assured I'm only doing this so confusion won't happen in the future.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
any real market doesn't make announcements about closing 'soon' because that will affect buying, you either freeze all trades or close it and give people back their principle. there was never any mention of the option of pulling you money out of a market that will be closed 'soon'. A market with that kind of arbitrary behaviour won't function. Which leads back to the question of why this is being voided in the first place. Is it just because it was a duplicate? There are lots of those.
It really doesn't matter what decision you make as long as its completely consistent with all other decisions made by editors and is explained fully.
It fails to take into account, for instance, what happens if a president is elected and dies/etc. before he can take office. An adequate approximation would ask "Who will be the next President-Elect of the United States", NOT "Who will be the next President of the United States."
Of special note here is the 20th Amendment, stating, "If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President."
Unlikely that this difference would matter, of course. But the questions should be equivalent to eachother if duplication is the problem with them.
The problems I had with this market were the fact that people like Keyes and Gravel were represented while independents like Bloomberg, Nader aren't. Also the settlement rules are so complex that some predictors might be pushed away from betting on the question. We need simple/clear settlement rules that cover all the known boundaries, so that markets are accessible.
To the point of congruence between Editors. I know it might seem like things are being run like the wild west here. This is why we are trying to get a big book of rules so settlement/voiding etc... can be more guided, simple and less divisive. To discuss the rules please go here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/help_rules_and_common_mis_understandings
Ryan,
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
John
1) Void with advance notice (like you did)
2) Void immediately
3) Close the market immediately and pay off
4) Leave it open and hope it doesn't fubar. If it does, void it then.
None of these options are good, but voiding with advance notice is probably the worst, as it leaves the market open to manipulation, which I think I am seeing here.
http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/r/v/1/clinton_tag_team.jpg
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