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Which Candidate Will Be Elected President (Multiple Party/ November End Date)

Voided

Closing the market for reasons stated in the background info.

Background:

Background: Hi everyone,

Starting today I want to start to phase this question out. I will not void yet, but I've opened up a new question just like this one, but with more acceptable outcomes. The question is located here: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047/View
From now on please start using this market to make predictions on who will be the next president. Thanks for help in this matter, and apologies about the confusion.

Cheers,
Ryan

Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.cnn.com/, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/, http://www.foxnews.com/.
All Sites Must Agree, otherwise Question Shall remain suspended until Agreement IS Reached As To "The President Elect" Of The United States Of America.

**Note This Question Will Be Suspended(Monday, November 3, 2008 @ 8:59pm PST(11:59 pm EST), But NOT Settled (Paid)At That Date And Time, Settlement Will Occur, Again When The Sites Listed Above Have Reached Agreement.***

Please Also Note In The Event The Winning Candidate Shall Be Different From The Person Who ActuallTake The Office, Due To Other UNFORESEEN Reason; Death, Being Ruled Ineligable By Court, Congress, Or Any Other Event Unrelated To The Agreement As To Who Was Chosen President Elect Shall Have NO Purpose In Dispute Resolution And Agrees Hubdub, And The Question Creator, Are Free From, Blame Should This Question Be Settled By Some Event After Thee Election Except As It Applies To The Election Of President Elect Occurring November 4, 2008(A Time By Which THe Question Will Be Suspended Within The Whole Of The United States).

Candidates Choosen Are Still Contending, As Of February 3,2008 Other Has Been Added To Indicate Any Candidate Not Listed Individually !

IN THE EVENT OF DISPUTE The Abreviations (Rep.) OR (Dem.) Next To Candidates Names Should Be Disregarded, If Your Candidate Is Named Below His Party Affiliation Shall Not Trump His Name (His/Her Name Remains Effective For INDEPENDANT Campaign Concerning General Election Results.)

HubDub Shall Have Administrator Shal Have Final Desicion These Terms Shall Be Used To Guide Him/Her To Fairly Decide Any Dispute!

DO NOT WAGER IF YOU DO NOT AGREE!
EDITOR PLEASE CONSIDER THESE RULES WHEN DECIDING IF VOIDING WOULD BE CONSIDERED NESSECARY/APPROPRITE DUE TO DISAGREEMENT WITH ALL/ANY TERMS, LISTED!

 
Forecast history %
John McCain (Rep.)
3%
Hillary Clinton (Dem.)
5%
Mitt Romney (Rep.)
3%
Barack Obama (Dem.)
1%
Mike Huckabee (Rep.)
2%
Ron Paul (Rep.)
74%
Mike Gravel (Dem.)
1%
Alan Keyes (Rep).
0%
Other (ANYONE ELSE NOT LISTED ABOVE / INDEPENDANT)
10%
Voided Tue 12th Feb 2008 5:24pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: John McCain (Rep.): 10%, Hillary Clinton (Dem.): 14%, Mitt Romney (Rep.): 9%, Barack Obama (Dem.): 16%, Mike Huckabee (Rep.): 7%, Ron Paul (Rep.): 7%, Mike Gravel (Dem.): 3%, Alan Keyes (Rep).: 1%, Other (ANYONE ELSE NOT LISTED ABOVE / INDEPENDANT): 33%

Action history:

Created Sun 3rd Feb 2008 1:03am PST by kindah
Voided Tue 12th Feb 2008 5:24pm PST by ryanj: Closing the market for reasons stated in the background info.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (721)

1 year ago
duckie predicted Hillary Clinton (Dem.) (H$50 at 19%)
1 year ago
duckie predicted Hillary Clinton (Dem.) (H$50 at 17%)
1 year ago
hojohnjo predicted Barack Obama (Dem.) (H$50 at 35%)
1 year ago
duckie predicted Ron Paul (Rep.) (H$20 at 0%)
1 year ago
phred predicted John McCain (Rep.) (H$130 at 21%)

Comments (32)

Settlement Seems Dependable(in the event another freak election occurs), And Odds Seem About Fair To Me. Good Question!
posted 1 year ago
  2 dollars
good question, good settlement terms.
posted 1 year ago
  3 galahaut
Typing Like This Is Annoying.

Stop it.
posted 1 year ago
If Typing Like That Is Annoying You Why Do You Do It?
posted 1 year ago
  5 yonemoto
If a candidate changes parties, will they then move to the "independent" category, or will their position still be valid?
posted 1 year ago
I Understand It As His/Her Name Is Dominant Because Settlement Terms Say

"IN THE EVENT OF DISPUTE The Abreviations (Rep.) OR (Dem.) Next To Candidates Names Should Be Disregarded, If Your Candidate Is Named Below His Party Affiliation Shall Not Trump His Name (His/Her Name Remains Effective For INDEPENDANT Campaign Concerning General Election Results.)"
posted 1 year ago
So If You Thought Hillary Will Go Independant Keep Your Money On Her Regardless, But Say If Mike Bloomberg Or Al Gore Were To Run They Would Both Be OTHER.
posted 1 year ago
  8 ryanj
Skypecasts don't seem to be working right now, so just add me via skype as drfeelwrong and I'll start a conference call
posted 1 year ago
I Think Barack Obama Just Became The Ron Paul Of The Democratic Party, LOL!
posted 1 year ago
  10 markov
Settlement terms appear to be clearly defined. Delegate counts for the purpose of this question are irrelevant. Worst case scenario is that the election result ends up in court and the question can't be settled until the new president makes their inauguration speech in January 2009. Needless to say, that is highly unlikely.
posted 1 year ago
the Final Official Delegate count for democratic nominee can be found here http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/super-tuesday-delegate-tracker.html

If Thats What You Are Looking For, But This Question Is For President Elect And A NON Decision Is EXTREMELY Unlikely, All You Would Need To Settle THIS Question Is For A Candidate To Be Announced As "President Elect" Without ANY Counts Whatsoever.
posted 1 year ago
In November (presidential election) We Will Be Counting the ELECTORATE, not the delegate, but once again that has nothing to do with THIS Question.
posted 1 year ago
  13 ryanj
Hi everyone,

Starting today I want to start to phase this question out. I will not void yet, but I've opened up a new question just like this one, but with more acceptable outcomes. The question is located here: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2006/View
From now on please start using this market to make predictions on who will be the next president. Thanks for help in this matter, and apologies about the confusion.

Cheers,
Ryan

Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
ryan the other question has unclear settlement terms and does not provide any options for an independant candidate other than those listed by name.
posted 1 year ago
why Would This Question Be Voided, If I Could Understand That I Could Then Only Place Bets On Questions YOUR TEAM DEEMS ACCEPTABLE In The First Place, It Does Not Seem Fair To Void A Question Allready 1 Week Old, Especially To Replace it with a question which is more vague to say the least!
posted 1 year ago
  16 ryanj
Apologies for no other outcome, that has now been added as well as clear settlement terms.
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047/View




posted 1 year ago
again why is a 1 week old question being voided?
posted 1 year ago
if questions on this site will be continually voided why should we EVER place a bet, ryan?
This Is Not Fair To Anyone Who Has Allready Bet On This Question, Nor Is It Fair To The Creator, That You Would Void This Question After Letting It Run For a Week Please Reconsider And Should You Come To The Conclusion YOU ARE In ERROR, Please Fix The Text, Asking To See Settlement Terms etc..... This EXTREMELY Discourages Question Creation And Even Placing Bets, In Other words If We Can Depend On NOTHING, Why Come Here?
posted 1 year ago
  19 ryanj
Cancelled,

Two duplicate markets were made, and I was unable to catch them because of the Feb. 5 rush. Both of these markets would have been voided if I had caught them and examined them but to my own fault that did not happen. I voided one of them once I found it, unfortunately as we know no one likes their markets being voided. So with this one (the other duplicate) I'm giving people time to cash out. You may disagree with this but be assured I'm only doing this so confusion won't happen in the future.

Regards,
Ryan

Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
  20 ratel
so is it being cancelled or not, its still open to new betting. I agree with cancelledbysbc, there doesn't seem anything wrong with this question, its clear, has clear end date and terms. And the idea of allowing people to 'cash out' of a market seems very strange to me. the people who happen to be up will cash out and the those who aren't do what? wait until its voided and they get their principle back?
any real market doesn't make announcements about closing 'soon' because that will affect buying, you either freeze all trades or close it and give people back their principle. there was never any mention of the option of pulling you money out of a market that will be closed 'soon'. A market with that kind of arbitrary behaviour won't function. Which leads back to the question of why this is being voided in the first place. Is it just because it was a duplicate? There are lots of those.

It really doesn't matter what decision you make as long as its completely consistent with all other decisions made by editors and is explained fully.
posted 1 year ago
Actually, your proposed question is NOT a duplicate.

It fails to take into account, for instance, what happens if a president is elected and dies/etc. before he can take office. An adequate approximation would ask "Who will be the next President-Elect of the United States", NOT "Who will be the next President of the United States."

Of special note here is the 20th Amendment, stating, "If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President."

Unlikely that this difference would matter, of course. But the questions should be equivalent to eachother if duplication is the problem with them.
posted 1 year ago
  22 ryanj
Ratel,

The problems I had with this market were the fact that people like Keyes and Gravel were represented while independents like Bloomberg, Nader aren't. Also the settlement rules are so complex that some predictors might be pushed away from betting on the question. We need simple/clear settlement rules that cover all the known boundaries, so that markets are accessible.

To the point of congruence between Editors. I know it might seem like things are being run like the wild west here. This is why we are trying to get a big book of rules so settlement/voiding etc... can be more guided, simple and less divisive. To discuss the rules please go here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/help_rules_and_common_mis_understandings

Ryan,
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
  23 bcguelph
plesae void this soon - all of my H$ are invested here in losing positions. I'm stuck (not playing) until you void it. Not a pleasant Hubdub experience these past few days.
posted 1 year ago
  24 bcguelph
One day later... PLEASE void this already!
posted 1 year ago
  25 pangloss
and how is it possible that one bet is losing money here while in the 'other' question and the real world it is on its way up (Obama)? Does that have to do with people cashing out? That wouldn't be correct, I presume..

John
posted 1 year ago
  26 cherrybomb
As I see it, you have four choices in a situation like this:
1) Void with advance notice (like you did)
2) Void immediately
3) Close the market immediately and pay off
4) Leave it open and hope it doesn't fubar. If it does, void it then.

None of these options are good, but voiding with advance notice is probably the worst, as it leaves the market open to manipulation, which I think I am seeing here.
posted 1 year ago
  27 cherrybomb
I should have said "distortion" rather than "mainpulation. People are no longer wagering on the original question, they are just wagering against other wagerers, so to speak.
posted 1 year ago
  28 bcguelph
Again, the longer that this queston is left as "voidable" the less traffic it will receive and my McCain bets will continue to flounder well below what other markets say they are worth. What is the sense in a 5-6+ day announcement that a question will "soon be voided"? Those of us with positions dependant upon active betting interest to keep the market active are effectively S.O.L until this gets VOIDED. Please VOID ASAP!
posted 1 year ago
Or don't void it (see my above post). The "substitute question" is substantially different than this one.
posted 1 year ago
  31 tertius
I am down over 400H$ because of the "phasing out" of this question. How can it be "phased out"? It must be voided.
posted 1 year ago
  32 markov
I also am down H$ because this question was voided prematurely. This was a shoddy way to do things.
posted 1 year ago

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