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Which Democratic canidate will win the female vote in Pennsylvania?

Settled as Clinton Wins Female Vote

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM

Background:

Background: Obama in recent primaries and caucuses has been able to defeat Hillary in her home turf, the female vote. Can he repeat his cross-gender wins in Pennsylvania?

Settlement details:As reported by CNN exit polling. This market is in reference to the overall female vote, not specific demographics of the female vote. Market is in reference to Dem. primary not general election.

 
Forecast history %
Clinton Wins Female Vote
97%
Obama Wins Female Vote
3%
Settled as Clinton Wins Female Vote on Wed 23rd Apr 2008 4:14am PST

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 23rd Apr 2008 4:14am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Clinton Wins Female Vote: 65%, Obama Wins Female Vote: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Apr 2008 1:44pm PST by ryanj
Edited Fri 11th Apr 2008 2:54pm PST by ryanj
Clarified Fri 11th Apr 2008 3:05pm PST by ryanj: I've edited the market to make it clearer that this market is in reference to the Penn. Democratic primary on the 22nd. I've also removed nominee and put in candidate.
Suspended Mon 21st Apr 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Mon 21st Apr 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 6:19am PST by ryanj
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 6:20am PST by ryanj
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 2:08pm PST by ryanj
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 3pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 23rd Apr 2008 2:50am PST by triathematician: Should settle as H.C. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM
Settled as 'Clinton Wins Female Vote' Wed 23rd Apr 2008 4:14am PST by ryanj: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 23rd Apr 2008 4:14am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 2008 4:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (146)

1 year ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$500 at 96%)
1 year ago
simon predicted Obama Wins Female Vote (H$20 at 4%)
1 year ago
triathematician predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$1,000 at 96%)
1 year ago
mrpredictypants predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$50 at 95%)
1 year ago
rickb41 predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$50 at 95%)

Comments (5)

  1 destry[Admin]
The starting odds are interesting on this question. Obama won the female vote in Mississippi but he won that state hands down, that was more of a split among racial divides than gender. In Ohio clinton wins women 57 to 41, in Texas she wins 54 to 45. In the latest PPP poll in PA, clinton holds a 16 point lead among women.
posted 1 year ago
As I noted in my flag, the (ultimate) "nominee" who will win the women's vote is the candidate who is ultimately nominated. We have no nominee, and there can be only one, as the movie tells us. So, as structured this is a market on who will be nominee, not on who will carry Pennsylvania female voters.
posted 1 year ago
Ryan can you clarify that this is for the april 22 democratic primary. (Obvious, but should be made clear)
posted 1 year ago
  4 ryanj
Hi,

I've edited the market to make it clearer that this market is in reference to the Penn. Democratic primary on the 22nd. I've also removed nominee and put in candidate.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
  5 ryanj
Apologies for the confusion regarding suspend times. I thought I'd placed 8 o'clock suspend times. But my math must've been off. All PA markets are now set to a 7:55 end time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago

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