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Which Democratic canidate will win the female vote in Pennsylvania?

Settled as Clinton Wins Female Vote

Obama in recent primaries and caucuses has been able to defeat Hillary in her home turf, the female vote. Can he repeat his cross-gender wins in Pennsylvania?
 
% chance over time
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Settled

Clinton Wins Female Vote
97%
Obama Wins Female Vote
3%
Activity: H$60,304
Settled as Clinton Wins Female Vote on Wed 23rd Apr 5:14am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by CNN exit polling. This market is in reference to the overall female vote, not specific demographics of the female vote. Market is in reference to Dem. primary not general election.

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT

Settlement date: Wed 23rd Apr 5:14am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Clinton Wins Female Vote: 65%, Obama Wins Female Vote: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Apr 2:44pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Fri 11th Apr 3:54pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Clarified Fri 11th Apr 4:05pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: I've edited the market to make it clearer that this market is in reference to the Penn. Democratic primary on the 22nd. I've also removed nominee and put in candidate.
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 7:19am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 7:20am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 3:08pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 4pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 23rd Apr 3:50am PDT by triathematician: Should settle as H.C. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM
Settled as 'Clinton Wins Female Vote' Wed 23rd Apr 5:14am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by CNN exit polling. This market is in reference to the overall female vote, not specific demographics of the female vote. Market is in reference to Dem. primary not general election. ... read all

 

Predictions

17 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$500 at 96%)
17 weeks ago
simon predicted Obama Wins Female Vote (H$20 at 4%)
17 weeks ago
triathematician predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$1,000 at 96%)
17 weeks ago
mrpredictypants predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$50 at 95%)
17 weeks ago
rickb41 predicted Clinton Wins Female Vote (H$50 at 95%)
more

Comments

  1 destry[Admin]
The starting odds are interesting on this question. Obama won the female vote in Mississippi but he won that state hands down, that was more of a split among racial divides than gender. In Ohio clinton wins women 57 to 41, in Texas she wins 54 to 45. In the latest PPP poll in PA, clinton holds a 16 point lead among women.
posted 18 weeks ago
As I noted in my flag, the (ultimate) "nominee" who will win the women's vote is the candidate who is ultimately nominated. We have no nominee, and there can be only one, as the movie tells us. So, as structured this is a market on who will be nominee, not on who will carry Pennsylvania female voters.
posted 18 weeks ago
Ryan can you clarify that this is for the april 22 democratic primary. (Obvious, but should be made clear)
posted 18 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

I've edited the market to make it clearer that this market is in reference to the Penn. Democratic primary on the 22nd. I've also removed nominee and put in candidate.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 18 weeks ago
  5 ryanj[Admin]
Apologies for the confusion regarding suspend times. I thought I'd placed 8 o'clock suspend times. But my math must've been off. All PA markets are now set to a 7:55 end time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 17 weeks ago

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