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Which political party will win the next general election in the UK?

Background:

Settlement details:This will be taken to mean the party that wins the most seats (question to be voided in the event of a tie). The suspend date of this question will be altered once the dates of the next election are announced.

 
Forecast history %
Labour
7%
Conservatives
93%
Liberal Democrats
0%
Other
0%
Question suspends in 27 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 30th May 2010 11:59pm PST (27 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Labour : 50%, Conservatives : 40%, Liberal Democrats: 7%, Other: 3%

Action history:

Created Sun 9th Mar 2008 6:12am PST by ryanj
Changed Question text Tue 11th Nov 2008 9:24pm PST by tisha[Admin]: ... Which polticalpolitical party will win the next
Changed Suspend date Fri 26th Jun 4:21pm PST by tisha[Admin]: was: "2009-06-30 23:59:00"

Suspend date: Sun 30th May 2010 11:59pm PST (27 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (267)

10 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted Conservatives (H$1,000 at 92%)
11 weeks ago
craig814 predicted Labour (H$20 at 9%)
11 weeks ago
johnnydollar predicted Conservatives (H$100 at 91%)
11 weeks ago
heavy_heart predicted Conservatives (H$20 at 91%)
11 weeks ago
ajmitchell predicted Labour (H$80 at 7%)

Comments (5)

  1 cabalamat
This question is ill-formed: does "win" mean get an overall majority, or merely be the largest party?
posted 1 year ago
Agreed - this is a very ambiguous question.
posted 1 year ago
  3 f1_robbeh
"Settlement details: This will be taken to mean the party that wins the most seats"

Seems pretty clear to me!
posted 51 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
Thanks rob11 - I think the question was edited after these comments were made!
posted 51 weeks ago
agreed - i want to vote for labour-libdem coalition please
posted 17 weeks ago

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