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Created Sun 9th Mar 7:12am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions » World » UK » 

Which poltical party will win the next general election in the UK?

Current forecast: Conservatives (66% chance8%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Conservatives with a probability of 66% (up 8% in last 1 day)

 
Forecast history, %
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 Labour
33%
Conservatives
66%
Liberal Democrats
1%
Other
0%
Activity: H$13,868
Question suspends in 37 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: This will be taken to mean the party that wins the most seats (question to be voided in the event of a tie). The suspend date of this question will be altered once the dates of the next election are announced.

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jul 2009 12:59am PDT (37 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Labour : 50%, Conservatives : 40%, Liberal Democrats: 7%, Other: 3%

Action history:

Created Sun 9th Mar 7:12am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: This will be taken to mean the party that wins the most seats (question to be voided in the event of a tie). The suspend date of this question will be altered once the dates of the next election are announced.... read all

 

Predictions (85)

85 predictions

1 week ago
matthelm predicted Conservatives (H$500 at 63%)
1 week ago
rogi predicted Conservatives (H$400 at 56%)
1 week ago
bout3fitty predicted Labour (H$250 at 43%)
1 week ago
lcsnor predicted Conservatives (H$62 at 58%)
1 week ago
chris[Admin] predicted Labour (H$400 at 36%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 cabalamat
This question is ill-formed: does "win" mean get an overall majority, or merely be the largest party?
posted 18 weeks ago
  2 richie_edinburgh
Agreed - this is a very ambiguous question.
posted 11 weeks ago

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