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Which type of plane will crash next?

Voided

Market needs clarification--type of aircraft is vague.

Background:

Background: Crash with no survivors.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Airbus
45%
Boeing
45%
other
10%
Voided Sun 18th May 2008 1:52am PST

Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Airbus: 45%, Boeing: 45%, other: 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 30th Apr 2008 1:11am PST by pepe
Suspended Sat 17th May 2008 4:49pm PST by diana: This market was edited and I was waiting to hear from the market creator and/or hubdub team to see if the meaning of this market was altered in any sort of way. Also, if it is found that private planes are included in this market, all reports of plane crashes from the time that the market was created will be checked.
Voided Sun 18th May 2008 1:52am PST by diana: Market needs clarification--type of aircraft is vague.

Suspend date: Thu 31st Jul 2008 11:59pm PST details

 

Predictions (27)

1 year ago
gadget666 predicted other (H$100 at 52%)
1 year ago
paulcroft predicted other (H$50 at 51%)
1 year ago
cruel predicted Airbus (H$50 at 31%)
1 year ago
randomkiller403 predicted Boeing (H$50 at 17%)
1 year ago
mimosa predicted other (H$20 at 54%)

Comments (10)

  1 diana
I'm trying to get in touch with the creator of this market, but I believe the market infers "which commercial plane will crash..."
posted 1 year ago
  2 diana
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080502/wl_nm/sudan_planecrash_dc_6

There was a settlement request for this story, but a Beechcraft 1900 is not a large commercial plane.
posted 1 year ago
  3 belarusia
where in the question does it say it has to be a LARGE COMMERCIAL PLANE?? Isn't that what the "other" option is, that it's something else then an airbus or boeing??
posted 1 year ago
  4 belarusia
this is unbelievable!! Diana, how can you say this market "infers" something when it doesn't even say "large commercial planes". All the question ask for is a plane crash WITH NO SURVIVORS. that has happened and this question needs to be settled.
posted 1 year ago
  5 Erik
I don't have a dog in this fight, but I gotta agree. I don't see any mention of how the plane that crashes has to be licensed. Only the manufacturer. A Beechcraft is made by Beech Aircraft Corp., not Boeing or Airbus, so it must be "other"...This question was voided
Today 1:52am PST
Reason: Market needs clarification--type of aircraft is vague.
I don't see anything vague.
posted 1 year ago
  6 belarusia
this is so BS! Diana voids a question just cause she feels like it. Nothing vague about it at all
posted 1 year ago
I didn't bet on this either, but I would point out that if 'other' really is anything other than airbus or boeing, the initial odds on this question were WAY off. My guess is that's why Diana was inferring large plane, in order to make the question make sense -- but of course as everyone pointed out, it doesn't explicitly say that. So, I think the only bad thing here is that it wasn't voided in the first 12 hours.

(BTW, when you see something with odds WILDLY different than you think they should be.. say 'other' at 10% when it should be near 95%, you should flag it for 1) clarification in case you are misunderstanding the question or 2) bad initial odds... this lessens headaches and shouting matches at settlement)
posted 1 year ago
  8 mork[Power User]
Small planes crash far more frequently than large commercial planes.
The Starting odds only make sense if the 'other' category is limited to planes of the same stature of the other two categories.
If one considers all the components of the question including the starting odds, and applies a bit of common sense this should be easily presumed IMHO.
A little bit of common sense belarus...It might help you stop sounding so abusive too...it appears you`re just guessing and then trying to bitch your way out of a bad bet.
posted 1 year ago
  9 Erik
mork, good points, all. But, I still say that we should be wagering on what the question asks, not on how it's going to be interpreted at settlement. At least this was voided and not settled by interpretation, as so very many have been.
posted 1 year ago
  10 mork[Power User]
If anybody thought the other option included small planes they should have flagged it for review for skewed starting odds. If they chose not to and made a bet instead then they would be, IMHO, guessing, or trying to take advantage of semantics at settlement time.
posted 1 year ago

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