Created Fri 1st Feb 2008 8:35pm PST by

Who will be the first "President of Europe"?

Settled as Someone Else

"BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union leaders named Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, who is little known outside his own country, as the bloc's first president on Thursday to lead efforts to make it more influential on the world stage."

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSLI18977520091119

Background:

Background: The EU council of ministers will soon have a permanent chair called the president. This role and several others will be decided in the second half of the year. There are a number of current contenders, will one of them be selected? It is not an elected role.

Editor's clarification: There's no recent news about a date for selection, so this question has been extended for 3 months. It will remain open until a selection is made (or is at least immanent).

Dec 2 Update: It appears that this will be decided some time in December (the job starts in Jan 2009) at a summit of the European Council. This may be a mid-Dec summit or another at the end of month. Question suspend date changed to end of Dec, but will settle upon news. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7371840.stm

Jan 2009 update: It turns out that the position referred to in this question does not exist until (if?) the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect. Until that time, the Presidency continues to be changed from country to country every 6 months (France has just been replaced by the Czech Republic). So this question should remain open until either a "Pres. of Europe" is selected, or it becomes clear that Lisbon doesn't become law.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. (Obsolete: It sounds like this will happen in the summer after the French presidency of the EU ends. So I'm putting Sept 1, but if a solid date is set for the appointment it should be changed to that.)

Forecast history %

Manuel Barroso

Tony Blair

Wolfgang Schüssel

Jean-Claude Juncker

Bono

Bertie Ahern

Someone Else

99%

Settled as Someone Else on Today 2:55am PST

Activity: H$84,438
Predictions: 283
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Sat 30th Jan 2010 2:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Today 2:55am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 19th Nov 2:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Manuel Barroso: 16%, Tony Blair: 16%, Wolfgang Schüssel: 16%, Jean-Claude Juncker: 16%, Bono: 1%, Bertie Ahern: 5%, Someone Else: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 1st Feb 2008 8:35pm PST by

ratel

Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 12:55pm PST by

chris

Suspended Mon 1st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Description Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:39am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... (or is at least immanent).). Dec 2 Update: It appears that this will be decided some time in December (the job starts in Jan 2009) at a summit of the European Council. This may be a mid-Dec summit or another at the end of month. Question suspend date changed to end of Dec, but will settle upon news.

Changed Suspend date Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:39am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-12-01 23:59:00"

Unsuspended Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:40am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: Decision to be made in December, so suspend date moved to end of month.

Changed Description Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:43am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... Dec, but will settle upon news. <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7371840.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7371840.stm</a>

Changed Settlement info Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:43am PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... a major mainstream news source. . (Obsolete: It sounds like this will ... should be changed to that..)

Suspended Tue 30th Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Description Sat 3rd Jan 9:53pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... /hi/europe/7371840.stm</a> Jan 2009 update: It turns out that the position referred to in this question does not exist until (if?) the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect. Until that time, the Presidency continues to be changed from country to country every 6 months (France has just been replaced by the Czech Republic). So this question should remain open until either a "Pres. of Europe" is selected

Changed Suspend date Sat 3rd Jan 9:53pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-12-30 23:59:00"

Changed Description Sat 3rd Jan 9:55pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: show details

... "Pres. of Europe" is selected, or it becomes clear that Lisbon doesn't become law.

Unsuspended Sat 3rd Jan 9:56pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: See Jan 2009 update in background text.

Settlement requested Today 12:49am PST by

bernardo Level 14, Prophet (H$249,027)

: Someone else: "Belgian PM Herman van Rompuy was named President of the European Council" http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8369730.stm

Settled as 'Someone Else' Today 2:55am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: "BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union leaders named Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, who is little known outside his own country, as the bloc's first president on Thursday to lead efforts to make it more influential on the world stage."

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSLI18977520091119

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Predictions (283)

6 days ago

nanotube Level 12, Guru (H$41,377)

predicted Bertie Ahern (H$50 at 2%)

6 days ago

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$64,544)

predicted Wolfgang Schüssel (H$100 at 3%)

3 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$80,276)

predicted Someone Else (H$400 at 84%)

3 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted Someone Else (H$1,000 at 78%)

3 weeks ago

bernardo Level 14, Prophet (H$249,027)

predicted Someone Else (H$2,000 at 57%)

Comments (11)

jacktheseer Level 6, Player (H$2,213)

How about Edmond Stoiber?
He will get control of the EU.

posted 1 year ago

donal

Bono..........If there is truly a 1% chance of that happening, I am rather alarmed

posted 1 year ago

peterww Level 1, Newbie (H$940)

Bono probably has a better shot than Bertie Ahern (on whom I bet), now that Ahern has had to resign his post amid scandal in Ireland.

posted 1 year ago

lolamanda Level 2, Novice (H$1,066)

Bono... Hah. I really can't stand that guy.

posted 1 year ago

capecodviking [Power User]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7371840.stm

posted 1 year ago

curios

how about Václav Klaus

posted 47 weeks ago

bernardo Level 14, Prophet (H$249,027)

The job is supposed to be created by the Lisbon Treaty and since this isn't through yet we will have to postpone the settlement..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Council

posted 45 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,715,317)

was playing

posted 42 weeks ago

bernardo Level 14, Prophet (H$249,027)

Somebody still needs to clean things up here..

posted 42 weeks ago

tisha

Looks like Tony Blair is the current favorite
http://www.euractiv.com/en/future-eu/crises-send-blair-top-eu-presidency-list/article-178431

posted 42 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,715,317)

It is an open gate to combine the functions of President of the Commission and President of the European Council. This would be the logical choice otherwise making the function of President of the European Council purely decorative. Furthermore, all the proposed candidates are former prime-ministers (except Bono :)). However we'll have to wait the new Parliament and Commission and the result of the Irish referendum.

posted 42 weeks ago

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