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Who will be the last male contestant to be voted off of American Idol this year?

Settled as David Archuleta

Usually the weakest performers get voted off first, but sometimes there are surprises. Who will be the last male performer to leave the show as a loser?
 
% chance over time
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Settled

Chikezie
5%
Colton Berry
9%
Danny Noreiga
0%
David Archuleta
25%
David Cook or David Hernandez
33%
Michael Johns
19%
Garret Haley
0%
Either Jason Castro or Jason Yeager
7%
Robbie Carrico
0%
Luke Menard
1%
Activity: H$21,234
Settled as David Archuleta on Thu 22nd May 1:04am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Thu 22nd May 1:04am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Chikezie: 10%, Colton Berry: 10%, Danny Noreiga: 7%, David Archuleta: 7%, David Cook or David Hernandez: 15%, Michael Johns: 10%, Garret Haley: 10%, Either Jason Castro or Jason Yeager: 15%, Robbie Carrico: 6%, Luke Menard: 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 20th Feb 6:35am PST by bayoubear[Admin]
Edited Wed 5th Mar 1:42pm PST by chris[Admin]
Clarified Wed 12th Mar 2:16am PDT by tisha[Admin]: I read this question as "who will be the last man standing on American idol this year", whether the last male contestant is voted off, runner up or winner. This is how I am intending to settle the question.
Suspended Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Either Jason Castro or Jason Yeager' Fri 9th May 5:36am PDT by tisha[Admin]: The Davids will either be winner or runner up, so the last male contestant voted off was this week's Jason Castro.

See comments page for clarification.
Previous action withdrawn Fri 9th May 5:40am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Sorry, this has been settled too soon.
Settled as 'Either Jason Castro or Jason Yeager' Wed 14th May 11:07pm PDT by tisha[Admin]
Previous action withdrawn Thu 22nd May 1:03am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Resettled as per discussion on comments page.
Settled as 'David Archuleta' Thu 22nd May 1:04am PDT by tisha[Admin]: David Archuleta is the runner up on American Idol, David Cook is the winner of Season 7.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

22 weeks ago
marks11 predicted David Cook or David Hernandez (H$20 at 33%)
22 weeks ago
biged248 predicted David Cook or David Hernandez (H$100 at 31%)
22 weeks ago
bobyn42 predicted David Cook or David Hernandez (H$100 at 26%)
22 weeks ago
mattsnever predicted David Archuleta (H$100 at 29%)
22 weeks ago
triathematician predicted Michael Johns (H$50 at 20%)
more

Comments

Just to make sure I understand this question, what we are basically being asked is which male contestant will turn out to be the 2nd best guy on the show. Also just checking, is this supposed to suspend next week?
posted 23 weeks ago
  2 edogg
If a female wins, then the guy she went up against would also be the last male vodet off. If there are 4 females left then fifth from last would be the last male, IMHO.
posted 23 weeks ago
I don't think a guy who loses in the finale would count -- he isn't voted off, he just isn't the American Idol. It would have to be at least #3 (assuming that's a male)
posted 23 weeks ago
  4 randburg
This is sounding like a "bear trap". Could either bayoubear or one of the editors PLEASE EXPLAIN exactly how this is going to be settled? And what we are looking for?
posted 23 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
I read this question as "who will be the last man standing on American idol this year", whether the last male contestant is voted off, runner up or winner. This is how I am intending to settle the question.
posted 23 weeks ago
Tisha - The background says the last male to leave as a loser, so at the least, it certainly can't be the winner. Whether you count a runner up male in the finale (I wouldn't) is certainly open to interpretation, but I don't think its fair to count the winner as the last man voted off.
posted 23 weeks ago
So this question will be settled as who is the last man on the show? As it suspends in 2 days, I think this needs to be clearly defined now or push back the suspend date. Unless I hear something different, based on Tisha's statement, I am going to assume that we are bidding on the last man on idol.
posted 23 weeks ago
  8 bayoubear[Admin]
Yep...if a male wins the contest...the last other guy voted off would be the one...so, since Archuleta is the favorite to win at this point, he wouldn't be the last guy voted off.........if he loses to a female, he would be
posted 22 weeks ago
  9 randburg
What a crazy question!! If a woman wins, we are looking for the last man standing. If a man wins, we are looking for the second last guy standing. SO, the question is REALLY trying to determine whether or not a woman wins, so that we can determine if we are looking for the most popular guy or the second most popular guy? I'm outta here....

Isn't it great that they don't elect the Pope this way? But it DOES sound a bit like the American election. Could that be the source for this model?
posted 22 weeks ago
  10 tisha[Admin]
OK thanks bayoubear for clarifying. If a male wins or is a runner up, it will be settled as the last male contestant voted off before him, ie a male winner or a male runner up is NOT voted off.
posted 22 weeks ago
  11 robmar
So this was definitely settled too soon which Tisha recognized if you check the Info tab, but does that mean my H$ has been refunded? I don't know how that works when something is settled too soon and then that decision has to be taken back...
posted 14 weeks ago
  12 tisha[Admin]
Sorry for this one. At the moment, winners should keep their winnings, and losers lose until the question is resettled. If it is resettled as something different, old winners will keep their earnings and new winners will also get paid out.
posted 14 weeks ago
  13 owl1
Say what, there are still 2 ales left!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
posted 13 weeks ago
  14 owl1
males
posted 13 weeks ago
  15 robmar
No no no... this isn't right! I initially read this question wrong and assumed it meant last male standing. And if you take a legalistic reading of the question that isn't what it says but I think that probably was what it was asking. However, technically if the winner is a male then the last male voted off would be the second to last male standing. That means this question CANNOT be settled yet. The question should be settled as David Archuleta if David Cook wins and David Cook if David Archuleta wins. I see no way to interpret this where Jason Castro is the last male voted off.

Who's with me here? Maybe Tisha can provide some insight into her reasoning?

Tisha- I also don't see how this was settled early and then you said that was in error and you'd wait for a later result but then it's still settled the same way. Please explain why you think coming in second is not the same as being voted off- I don't see the difference.
posted 13 weeks ago
  16 robmar
Also, just to be clear, I have read Tisha's comments above on how she plans to settle but I believe that's in incorrect interpretation and my bets were placed before that was made (I'm 95% sure, at least). I don't even think that's what bayoubear was saying, and that's what she was referencing. Bayoubear seems to be saying that if Archuleta (the favorite at that point) won this would be settled as the last male standing before him. If a female won it would be the last male standing. That means if there are two males in the finals, as it turns out to be, the runner up is the winning settlement.
posted 13 weeks ago
There were always two interpertations:
1) There is no "voting off" in the finale. Only a winner. Therefore the last male voted off has to happen before the finale (here that is Jason)
2) The person who doesn't win is not a winner, so we can say he is voted off, so here that will be 2nd place (one of the David's (David A I HOPE))

My vote was for #1, but as I read it, bayoubear said #2. Tisha said she agreed with bayoubear (#2), but then reiterated #1.

At this point, I kind of think she should settle it both ways. (Am flagging now)
posted 13 weeks ago
  18 tisha[Admin]
My final clarification was based on the comments of all the previous users where I stood corrected as to my initial view, and was weighted towards the opinion of the creator. In comment #10, I clearly state that it will be the last male voted off BEFORE being a runner-up or a winner.

Last week it was settled too early, because alas if Syesha had made it through to the final, the last man voted off would have been one of the Davids.
posted 13 weeks ago
  19 edogg
Here ya go: Aren't the votes all season for the one you want to win, not loose. Can you say that in any of the previous votes you were voting for the person that would be kicked off. NO this is not how it works. EVERY week you are voting for who you want to WIN; not loose. How is it different for the finale?? One of these Davids will be voted for and based on the majority of the votes someone will have to go. Is this different from last week??? So did you vote Syesha off, of did you vote for a David to stay?? Please explain...
posted 13 weeks ago
  20 robmar
@jenni- Thanks for the clarification. I've definitely got to agree with edogg here though and say that voting in the finale isn't any different than voting any other week. At no time are we actually "voting off" anyone. We're always just voting for who we like- that doesn't change in the finale.

@Tisha- comment #10 is confusing in that you seem to agree with bayoubear and then say you will rule differently.
posted 13 weeks ago
  21 owl1
Right edogg and robmar, This shouldn't be settled until the last male contestant is voted off.
posted 13 weeks ago
  22 edogg
Tisha, based on your comments and BayouBear's here: .........if he loses to a female, he would be
It should not matter it if is a male or female that wins. In the comment I noted from #8 on this list, it says if Sayesha wins then David A would have been the last male voted off (assuming he is the last male and in second after all the votes), defines a second place as being voted off, no matter if they lose to a male or female... They are still the last one that did not make it all the way. #2 is not a win. Based on MY comment where you (the viewer) are NEVER voting anyone off, only for the person that wins, are you really EVER voting for the person you do not want? ie, no one is voted off, they ALL HAVE BEEN voted "ON" technically. This should remain open until we know the last male Not voted for by a majority. If it were a male and female now, it would have been the male in third if a David wins, or the person in second if Sayesha won.

With all of this considered the question should have been redefined as: Who is the last male kept on the show, being that nobody votes people off of AI, it is just figured out by the least number of "Yes's" for that contestant.
Call it semantics at this point, but I do not think if there are two males on the show still that Jason was the last make voted off (if you think that way) :)
posted 13 weeks ago
  23 robmar
Okay, here's my argument, plain and simple:

The goal of American Idol is to win the competition- to be the last one left on the show. Every week viewers vote FOR their favorites and whoever has the fewest votes is eliminated. Just to be clear, you can't actually cast votes against contestants, so the term "voted off" probably isn't the best choice of words, but it is commonly accepted to mean the person who failed to advance. See here:
http://www.hubdub.com/m6993/Who_will_be_voted_off_of_American_Idol_on_Wednesday_May_7
and here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_voted_off_of_American_Idol_on_Wednesday_April_30_6251
The competition continues week after week so now let's say we're down to the final three. One of the contests receives the fewest number of votes and fails to advance (is "voted off"). Now we're down to two. The votes are cast and one contestant has the most and the other has the least. The contestant with the most votes advances and as the only remaining contestant is declared the winner. The other contestant fails to advance (is "voted off").

Now back to the real world...

There are two male contestants in the final so the last male contestant to fail to advance will be the runner up. We don't know who that is yet so this cannot be settled.

Basically to summarize... contestants are never "voted off" American Idol, they just fail to advance. As we saw in the other hubdub questions cited above, even though contestants cannot actually be "voted off" the term "voted off" itself has been recognized to be the equivalent of "fail to advance" in its previous usage. The last male contest has not yet "failed to advance" so the last male contestant has not yet been "voted off".

Thanks for taking the time to read all of this. Hopefully it's clear enough and we can get this opened up again. Thanks for your patience Tisha and anyone else who is still following along.
posted 13 weeks ago
  24 edogg
Well at least we agree!
posted 13 weeks ago
  25 edogg
Funny part is, I do not even think my mony is on the right person, I just want this to close fairly, because what happens during next years AI? Do we get to start this debate all over again, or will this be judged like the other ones that have closed properly this season?
posted 13 weeks ago
  26 robmar
Our dialogue seems to have stalled here... I don't consider this a closed issue- I thought we would be able to talk about it and reach a reasonable conclusion. I also thought Tisha was monitoring so I was hoping we'd hear from her again.

I've flagged this before so apparently I can't flag it again. Could someone else flag this so we can finish working this out? Thanks!
posted 13 weeks ago
  27 owl1
It still reads flagged as of today, who knows.
posted 13 weeks ago
  28 tisha[Admin]
Thanks for your well considered comments. Unfortunately, while there were attempts to clarify this question early on in the piece, I can see that ambiguity lingered as to whether this question referred to the last man standing, or the last man 'voted off' during the non-final rounds. I admit that I changed my position on the interpretation of the question myself, so I can see how confusing this would be for others.

I will re-settle this question based on which male is the runner-up in the final tonight. People who have won money on Jason Castro will keep their winnings; people who voted for the right David will also win.
posted 13 weeks ago
  29 robmar
Thank you Tisha! I really appreciate your willingness to continue to talk about this. The ability to have a civil debate and a determination by both users and admins to get things right is what will keep people coming back to hudbub in the long run. Thanks!
posted 13 weeks ago
  30 edogg
Although I DID NOT WIN, I do see this as properly and fairly settled based on the fact that nobody is voted off.
posted 12 weeks ago

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