Who will be the next President of the U.S.?

Dick Cheney for certain - there's months and months to fit in a quick impeachment of Bush surely?

There is already a market "Who will be the next President of the United States?" created by monkiss

Looks like Hillarys chances are going down the drain....

Good Thing Hillary's Superdelegates Don't See! LOL!

For me this looks a lot like the democrats simply have more young internet users supporting them.
If this was representative the democrats would lead 4:1 which looks quite unrealistic to me.

But users aren't choosing who they want to win, they're choosing who they think will win (theoretically, anyway).

Theoretically.... I personally doubt a republican voter would choose Obama here.

But keep in mind: Hubdub is used by non-americans too!
And there´s one thing I know for sure. After 8 years of Bush, 99% of the rest of the world will pray for a democrat to win!
The last thing the world needs is another chickenhawk who threatens anyone unable to fight back.

Converting Betfair odds, they have Obama at 50%.....thats Europeans (mostly in the UK) betting with real money.

So is Obama under-priced at 42% (as I write this)

Or has done more for AIDS in Africa than anyone in history? Funny, that one never makes the papers.

I'm a Republican and I chose Obama--just because I think he'd win against McCain. That doesn't mean I'd vote for Obama.

Or has sold more weapons to third world countries than anybody else? That one never makes the (US-)papers either...

Third world [democracies]. It's sad that you hate the third world so much that you don't want their slice of freedom protected. Oh, maybe it's the freedom you don't like. Hmmmmmmm.
You know, someone should put up a question like, "will the Dems beat Bush in '08?" Ah well, I guess the R's are still running against Bill.

OMG. its obvious its obama. 49% say its him and thats alot. and obama is the best canidate.

I posted the same question on 1st of February! It was voided. Now the "team" here pasted the same question again. Now I void this fucking site!

Yeah, I suspected that was going on.

tickle 1, zaphod 0

viva hitlary!

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/diebold_accidentally_leaks

lol, good stuff

the Onion News Network is my style of reporting, thanks for the link, mork.

All this money on Obama and he won't be on the ticket in Nov. unless its as VP.

So here's a question: how much real money do you suppose has been bet on this question around the world (not counting money given to candidates by lobbyists and special interest groups)? Though I suppose, in fairness, that is what all that money is as well -- just gambling. Perhaps K Street and the various special interests groups need an intervention, and to be enrolled in Gambler's Anonymous.

I think the reason people from the UK think Obama will win is because all the TV stations here really, really, really, really love the idea that a black man can be US president. I must admit, I'd like to see it too. But once the furore around the Clinton V Obama battle subsides more people will be more exposed to McCain and his polotics, and then the race for the Whitehous will begin. At the moment all we are getting is the fairytale story the british press wish to peddle. You'll see come November. Anyway, it's about time the US had a president named after an oven chip!

Obama will win because he is tall, has a deep voice and looks like a leader and a bunch of primates are voting. It's a sure deal.

Hey jackpot if that was the reason people voted for people then why wouldn't james earl jones have already been elected? What a silly thing to think. What you have going on is the big political machine of Clinton and thier feeling of it is owed to them, against the people loving the feeling of hope that Obama inspires. Look at the Republicans, we gave the nomination to McCain cause we know no republican can win this year, so we are letting him have his moment in the sun for the years of service he has put in. McCain considered joining the John Kerry ticket in 04 and now thinks he is the voice of the Republicans.

To all of you Obama supporters - please, please keep bidding him up. That way I get to buy Clinton at a lower price and make more money come Nov.

McCain supporters...... sorry got no suggestions for you....5 month media ignore period until he names a VP....unless he gets sick or has a scandal.

Destry -- So are you saying that the Republicans had better candidates to run besides McCain but they sat it out so he could be the sacrificial lamb? At 71 and 1/2 this is his last run, agreed, but please do tell who these other candidates were.

On a side note (since there is no way to communicate directly and this is the closest we have to passing a note in study hall) thanks for inviting me to your friends list. I accepted. However you should have let me know you are a Steelers fan.... In the interest of full disclosure I am a Browns fan. I will not hold it against you that you have chosen to follow the dark side....some of my best friends are Steeler's fans....most of them require a dose of their daily medication as well.

My favorite Browns Steelers memory of course is Joe "Turkey" Jones planting Terry Bradshaw on his head (a place which could not be damaged). If you are unfamiliar of this than you are too young to be a worthy adversary. ;)

I am tired of the democrats and republicans. I want to be able to vote for the Federalist party. Adams/Hamilton '08!!!

historyteacher has it right. we've seen this before.
keep bidding up obama, please!!!

HistoryTeacher - wanna make a killing on Hillery?

<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_win_the_most_delegates_in_the_Wyoming_Democratic_caucuses_on_March_8_3801/View>

typo - s/b Hillary

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56rTu_O_ACw

be the first to see it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6191C4oK6s0

http://thedailywtf.com/Comments/The-Computer-Vote-Totals.aspx#184702
*lol*

Someone (or ones) are betting HUGE on Clinton. I keep buying Mccain and Obama at really low %, and others keep buying clinton and driving her higher and higher! At one point it hit 62%

In Hubdub just like voting, dumb people have their say too!!

you haven't been reading your tea leaves, bcguelph!
you haven't taken the pulse of the day ...

Obama has played THE "CARD".
His support will quickly vanish in the next few weeks.
please see http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Obama_drop_out_of_the_race_before_30th_April__3737/view for more discussion.

Historyteacher, don't worry about being a browns fan, you all are so use to losing that another few years of it wont faze you much.

To the few of you that haven't read the comments on the question that jersjustrolling linked to, Jers has inside secret reliable sources that the leading candidate in the democratic race is going to drop out before April 30th.

I believe the Republicans didn't roll out Jeb Bush because of the Bush fatigue is wearing on the country. I believe he will be rolled out in 2016. I imagine there are other republicans that are senators or govenors that might have been better candidates than McCain, but I think what you saw in this election primary on the Republican side was that McCain benefitted from Romney and Huckabee splitting the conservative vote and allowing McCain to win some states. Look at the results in Florida, if only 60% of Huckabees votes would have chosen Romney he would have carried Florida. The Rudy vote here in florida was enough to push either candidate over the top as well, and in Florida we can vote early up to 2 weeks, so people were voting here before any of the candidates but Rudy made thier way down here.

Jers - THE CARD was played to great effect. He didn't take sides on the issue, he just commented to the importance of the issue. I still believe that he is NOT seen as the black candidate. THE "CARD", as you point out has not been "played". He has addressed an issues that could have negatively effected his bid.

Again, I'm betting strongly on this to make my point, this isn't just rhetoric here.

In his speech he equated his racist anti-American preacher with the little old lady that raised him. Did that win him votes? Out of the the thousands of churchs in Illinois, he has chosen for 20 years to attend this one. That was his CHOICE! He could have left anytime, but his continued attendance is an indication of support for the views expressed. Funny how his staff new this would be a problem and kept the minister out of the spotlight, the minister who is now conveniently unavailable and out of the country. Expect Wright's comments to cause people to revisit Mrs. Obama's "first time I'm proud to be an American" comments. They seem to line up very well together.

Obama is unelectable in November. There are too many voters that even in 2008 will not cast their votes for a black man. McCain lines up better against him than he does against Clinton. The Republicans have to absolutely be drooling over this Wright material and how they can use it against Obama in Nov. I can see the ads now....

I thought it was a great speech, but I already supported him, so that's not surprising. The battle has been going on long enough, I don't think anyone is easily swayed at this point. People are pretty entrenched and whichever way you vote you probably just got a lot surer after the last couple of days.

I do however want to disagree with historyteacher about him being electable. There may be a lot of people who don't want to vote for a black man but I would think the vast majority of them wouldn't vote for a woman either. In fact, I'm willing to bet most of them are Republican anyway so its somewhat moot. The amazing voter turnout this election suggests that the Democratic electorate is pretty excited about both the ethnic and the gender minority having a shot at the white house and I think when it comes down to it we'll vote for either one.

(Look there's me speaking for all the Democrats in America! I like the little emoticsons on GetSatisfaction.. wish I could sign off with one here.)

Sorry, one more point here. No idea what your religious preferences are, but I can speak from my own experience on the church issue. Our current pastor has a lot of strong opinions on the end times and in fact spent 10 minutes last summer talking about how the bombing of Isreal meant the end was nigh. I thought that was pretty ridiculous.

I did not however get up and walk out of the service. I rolled my eyes and wrote notes back and forth to my husband and then proceeded to move on. You will definitely not agree with everything that your pastor says. You take the good stuff and ignore the other stuff. A pastor is also a small element in the importance and power of a church. Most of your interactions and growth come from the people and not the pastor. The ministries and people make a church, not a single person.

I have lots more to say on this but am late for an appt.

Jenni - Unfortunately there are many "Reagan Democrats" who will vote for McCain or not vote rather than vote for Obama. I do not undertand it or agree with it, but have heard it from many personally. Add to this the impending swiftboating of Obama over this and even more will be driven away. Agreed some of these folks will not vote for a woman as well, but some still will. Additionally there will be Republican woman that cross over and vote for Clinton in November whereas Obama pulling in the votes of the 15 or 20 black voters left in the Republican party won't help much.

I agree with what you say about how a church is more than its minister/priest and that you will not agree with everything the person says. However, in the case of Rev. Wright, much has been written about how he built this church, how loyal his following is, etc. This is a church that clearly has been centered on the minister. Additionally, Obama has made much in the past about the role Wright personally played in his life, he has stressed Wright more than the church, so that makes this a fair topic to question Obama on.

I appreciate you saying that you support Obama and so you see his speech through the eyes of a supporter. I did not vote for him so I see it through different, but equally biased eyes. However, ask yourself this. If McCain attended a church where the minister had made racist, sexist or anti-semitic comments and tried to justify prejudice by saying the victims asked for it (such as Wright's ludicrous 9/11 comments) would you question why McCain continued to be a member of the church? Equally if McCain had a membership in a country club that had a history of discriminatory policies wouldn't it be a fair question to ask him why he chose to be a member?

It's not about Obama being black. In fact, he's not. He's bi-racial. Rather, these episodes are a glimpse inside of a man that none of us know much about. They show a view of his judgement, his morals. Why did it take him 20+ years to figure out that Wright was wrong? Perhaps, he is just a regular old politician after all, and he joined this church to give himself credibility and conections in the district where he ran for the Illinois legislature. Now that he is running nationally, Wright is no longer an asset. And remember, there's still more to come...Tony Resko, William Ayers, Bernardine Dohrn and the New Black Panther Party. In the words of Ricky Ricardo, "Someone's gotta lota splainin' to do."

I put 1K on Obama, and it shot him up from 36 to 58? what???

I put $H1K on Hillary, and it shot her up from 29 to 55.
Is there some kind of numeric overflow happening here, or some design-flaw, ala (size of floating-integer type)?

I don't know. I just put another 1k on Mccain, and it shot him up from 17 to 43. With a volume of over 400k in the last 24 hours, it doesn't seem like 1k should be making a huge difference.

400K is the total activity; today's activity is amazing 77K now though.

The market moves a lot, dont know why. 400K however is since 9th Feb, not in the last 24 hours

the activity is simply a volume amount, not the amount actually in the question right now...it counts all the money that is put in and cashed out, so what is basically happening is people are buying and selling but not alot of money is actually in the market right now

Interesting. What I can't figure is why Mccain is running lower than Clinton/Obama when he's the only one who has actually passed the primaries.

After the democrat candidate is chosen, neither remaining candidate should be running under 45 percent, at worst.

Jersjusttrolling - re: your opinion on hillary - you should check-out CNN's top story at this hour (Thursday eve). Basically, they say that she'll need a miracle to win the primary (2/3 of the remaining delegates). She's toast!

I agree that there must not be much money in the market right now. I put in a thousand at 12% (Obama) last night and it cost me 25%. Big bets are throwing the numbers way off. Best to bet $100 at a time.

Better yet, I'm just going to sit on my McCain and Obama bets until the rest of the world figures out the Hillary can't win.

I also agree with MEASURE - McCain will be in a dog fight with either Dem. He's worth at least 45%.

Could this be BushGate?

-- The State Department says security on Barack Obama's passport file has been breached, campaign officials tell CNN.
Thu, 20 Mar 2008 20:33:05

The greasy Republicans looking for dirt - swiftboaters_for_truth need material on Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/20/schneider.look.ahead/index.html

Clinton's a longshot.

Jersjusttrolling - what news do you watch? I'm curious about where you form your opinions.

@bcguelph, according to jersjustroling comment in another question, he is 2 heartbeats away from one of the top power brokers in DC. He is calling Howard Dean by his first name. He doesn't need to watch news, he knows it before it happens.

Bill Richardson is going to endorse Obama today - there goes the latino support of Hillary.

Don't tell jersjusttrolling this type of information, I like that Hillary is so expensive right now. Makes the other two better bets.

Bushgate? All three Pres contenders had passport info "breached". I don't get it. Are you suggesting Bush wants a 3rd term? Help me out here.

At the time of the news break, only one passport file was reported as being breached -- that of a Democrat.

As the old saying goes, "the first reports from the battlefield are always wrong".

With all the attention on Obama's pastor's comments, why is no one talking about the statements John McCain's spiritual advisors have made? They seemed more egregious to me (an independent), something along the lines of needing to wage war to eradicate the false religion of Islam.

Not gonna search for a link, go google it if you care.

jbolli, perhaps you should do some searching. Starting with just who McCain's "spiritual advisor's" are.

Uh, ok.

http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/rod_parsleys_free_pass_1.php?page=all

http://www.motherjones.com/washington_dispatch/2008/03/john-mccain-rod-parsley-spiritual-guide.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/21/mccain-spiritual-guide-ac_n_92757.html

And then there is this guy too..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23448170/

And Erik, thanks for making me waste the last half hour in a vain attempt to educate you fools.

Just kidding.

Kinda.

Well, as you can see jbolli, there is indeed quite a differance here. The "spiritual advisor's" you point to are not that. Rather, they simply endorse McCain. There is no close, 20+ year relationship. They didn't baptize McCain's children. They didn't marry McCain and his wife. McCain didn't sit in their pew for over 20 years, nor did he contribute to their church for 20 years.

McCain calls Rod Parsley his "spiritual guide." That's a hell of a lot more than just an endorsement.

And quit misquoting me, I never called them "advisor's."

jbolli, indeed you did, "With all the attention on Obama's pastor's comments, why is no one talking about the statements John McCain's spiritual advisors have made?" Comment #60. My humblest appologies for my misplaced apostrophe. But, to quote Hillary, "I was sleep deprived." (Let's hope nobody calls her at 3 AM)

I just bought McCain at 25%!! Surely McCain's value jumps to 40% the minute Obama or Clinton get the nomination. If they are as close as the polls say, McCain and the Dem Nominee might both jump to 50-50 the minute the Dem's make their choice.

Easy money - I just don't know how long it will take!

I wish Billary would drop out so the press could start talking about what a womanizer McCain was after his 1st wife was in a disfiguring accident and he ended up meeting cute, rich Cindy in Hawaii for a fling before they got married. Oh, wait, he's a neocon so the corporate press will never bring that up.

What's a "neocon" ? And while you're at it...corporate press, as opposed to...?

i heard a protester say neo-conservative once, when i heard Colin Powell speak at my school. Some of the people in line were paying attention to him until he used that word, lol... It basically proves that the speaker is radically off to one side and destroys any credibility they might have had...

I watched a few elections in a foreign country a few years ago, given to a peculiar attitude: everyone TALKED progressive, THOUGHT moderate, and then -- when they were by themselves in the little polling booth -- they mysteriously VOTED conservative.

I wonder if that isn't what's going on here this year: It's a big deal to TALK Obama, THINK Clinton, and when they get to the actual election, I wonder if the same people aren't going to VOTE McCain...

if you guys elect McCain I will have no sympathy for you when your dollar keeps diving... your country shocks me....

sp10it...ain't it cool? We don't need or want sympathy, we love it when the dollar temporarily drops and boosts our exports, we have the freedom to bitch about it and the freedom to elect whom we please. God bless America!

USA USA USA!!!

US may have problems. There our problems. We still OWN the best country in the world! And WE we settle our problems, like we always have ...

With our heads held high and our friends applauding!

the country that i am PROUD to live in is friends with your country but i am confused on how a citizen of a country can OWN it ?

government by the people for the people... we own and run this nation ;)

@meanderingsearcher

a citizen, in and of themselves, do not own the US.
all citizens, collectively, own this country. If issues become serious enough for the masses to feel the pain, we have the voting booth. Our leaders know it, and know they can be thrown out, if they don't adhere to the majority rule.

i thought it was run by a vast right-wing conspiracy.... mostly because the votes don't seem to matter.....

Mork and Destry have pledged to NOT play this game any further until a satisfactory conclusion is made concerning Satyaki's cheating ... PLEASE follow this link and ask ALL of your (friends) to use these links to send hubdub's admins a huge protest over this unethical situation!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

lucidstates (dismayed)

Hey all hubdubbers, the admins who control this site want EVERYONE'S input on how to deal with this cheater Satyaki and ALL future gamers ... They are asking for everyone to post their opinions and suggestions for the official rules on this link:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?
This ongoing problem stems from this:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Why_is_it_that_Satyaki_keeps_creating_Lahore_Badshahs_vs_xyz_team_questions_yet_Donal_doent_void_them_5294/view#newcomment

Here is the LATEST proposal from hubdub admins that they desire our say on:
Admins want a 4 strikes and your out process:
Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming
Hubdub Representative
To date we have dealt with gaming on a case by case basis. However it has become clear that we need to have a defined process for dealing with individuals that game. Therefore this is our proposed procedure:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning
2. Second identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth
3. Third instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined down to H$1,000
4. Any subsequent instance will result in their ability to create questions removed and potentially suspension of their account.
We propose to apply this procedure for all new instances of gaming however some users are on their first warning and one user is on their second warning.

HOWEVER, several of us users are calling for a MUCH stiffer penalty process and this is our overall latest proposal back to the admins:
We want a 3 strikes you're out process:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth.
2. Second instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks to 30 days) and fined down to H$1,000. AND removal of the gamers' right to create question for a period of time.
3. Any subsequent instance will result in definite, permanent suspension of their account, their IP and all other accounts by the gamer.

Have your say and please add your input at the area the admins have set up for this purpose:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)

I just love it that some Hubdubbers keep Clinton above 20% and make Obama and McCain so cheap to buy. Who are you Clinton buyers?? And why do you cling so fervently to false hope?

(wonders silently who those idiots are...bets on obama and mccain just because they are both going up)

Maybe Bill and Hillary are Hubdubers.

i like that clinton is polled at having a 1:10 shot at the dem nomination, not to mention the gen. election and she is at 20%.... makes you wonder...

What would possibly possess peterww to put 10,000$ on Ralph Nader???

dunno, but it brought clinton down to earth.

I think peter was upset with another question. Anyone know what caused the wagers. It has this market completely screwed up with payouts and percentages.

who is peterww?

I confess I can't make sense out of the movement(s) in this market.

It reminds me of the oft-quoted comment defining owning a boat as, "a hole, (surrounded by water) that you continually pour money into"

Last night I bought Obama, twice, at 25%. Go figure!

Could one of the admins let us know what the (approximate) actual amount of H$ is in this market?
(as opposed to the "total activity" figure)

I saw Obama at 1% on several occassions. This is a completely out of control market, there is definite bug in this market.

Are people just betting, then cashing in based on their short-term poll predictions?

I think some are -- sure.
Someone, apparently, keeps buying Clinton.

This market needs to be defraged ;-) something still isn't right with the way this market moves.
(see above 2 or 3 comments)

The Hubdub team is taking a look at this, if it is deemed the market needs to be suspended it will happen.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

agreed, I just made a couple bets in a row and the numbers were very strange.

Who's Ralph Nader?

I've got quite a bit in this market, and have seen the same wild swings... especially for the light activity during the same time periods...someone must be selling short...

This market was a real mess last night. I'm not trying it today. You click to buy at a certain amount, and **bling** -- it takes 45 seconds to complete the single transaction and (no surprise) -- THAT AIN'T WHAT YOU GETS!

The numbers keep swinging and you finally see a favorable opening to your WRONG purchase price. And **bling** -- it takes another 45 seconds to complete the sale transaction and (again, no surprise) -- YOU DON'T GET WHAT YOU ARE PROMISED.

This is the "all-time" hubdub RUSSIAN ROULETTE PREDICTION MARKET. Take a spin and see what you get!

I was curious... I tried to buy low, but ended up with like 58%!!! I'm just glad i purchased the right candidate...

Anyone know why this is suspended?

I've love to sell some Obama predictions at 67%!!

WOW, big sell off of mccain, and purchase of Obama...

Market suspended to examine potential market malfunction.

Look for Bill in there !

"market malfunction"....LOL

Wow. The other option remains strong at 2% while McCain, Clinton, and Obama go nuts! Are these people betting on Cheney getting it is Bush dies or is impeached? Or perhaps a Gore-comes-in-from-nowhere bid?

This question is like 50% of my holdings, I hope all is well.

Maybe Clinton and McCain had negative stories about them which was found by a hubduber before any major news network!

from the beginning this question has had the biggest difference in percentage on even the smallest bet (assuming no bug) ive seen on pretty much any question from day 1..i didnt bet very much per bet because of it and if someone bet a couple thou not knowing this it would kill the odds in a crazy way

yeah, i have major H$ on this market, if it gets voided i am gonna be bummed.

can we void it? it would than repay all my bets on clinton for the original price :)

@theonecalled michael, do you know something that the rest of us don't. You said you picked the right candidate.
@ everyone else - I know a major wager was placed on Ralph Nader then a big wager on bloomberg, part of me felt it was throwing money away just to, but how can we ever stop that. After the nomination the odds should be about 50-50 or so, so they seem pretty close to accurate now.

Ryan, Last night this question was suspended for investigation. Today it's back to normal. What did you guys decide/find out?

Hi,

Last night I suspended the market because of the wonky graph. Chris took a look at the market to examine it for any malfunctions. He unsuspended the market with this explanation :

"I have changed the make prediction screen so that if you cannot get a prediction at the price you expect, no prediction will be made. I think this should eliminate the crazy movement in this market. Please flag again if it continues to go completely crazy."

So if the wonkiness continues please inform me, but hopefully this will fix the problem with the market.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

By right candidate, I mean Obama. I did not wager on anyone except obama and mccain.... in short "It wasn't me..."