Who will be the next President of the U.S.?

Dick Cheney for certain - there's months and months to fit in a quick impeachment of Bush surely?

There is already a market "Who will be the next President of the United States?" created by monkiss

Looks like Hillarys chances are going down the drain....

Good Thing Hillary's Superdelegates Don't See! LOL!

For me this looks a lot like the democrats simply have more young internet users supporting them.
If this was representative the democrats would lead 4:1 which looks quite unrealistic to me.

But users aren't choosing who they want to win, they're choosing who they think will win (theoretically, anyway).

Theoretically.... I personally doubt a republican voter would choose Obama here.

But keep in mind: Hubdub is used by non-americans too!
And there´s one thing I know for sure. After 8 years of Bush, 99% of the rest of the world will pray for a democrat to win!
The last thing the world needs is another chickenhawk who threatens anyone unable to fight back.

Converting Betfair odds, they have Obama at 50%.....thats Europeans (mostly in the UK) betting with real money.

So is Obama under-priced at 42% (as I write this)

Or has done more for AIDS in Africa than anyone in history? Funny, that one never makes the papers.

I'm a Republican and I chose Obama--just because I think he'd win against McCain. That doesn't mean I'd vote for Obama.

Or has sold more weapons to third world countries than anybody else? That one never makes the (US-)papers either...

Third world [democracies]. It's sad that you hate the third world so much that you don't want their slice of freedom protected. Oh, maybe it's the freedom you don't like. Hmmmmmmm.
You know, someone should put up a question like, "will the Dems beat Bush in '08?" Ah well, I guess the R's are still running against Bill.

OMG. its obvious its obama. 49% say its him and thats alot. and obama is the best canidate.

I posted the same question on 1st of February! It was voided. Now the "team" here pasted the same question again. Now I void this fucking site!

Yeah, I suspected that was going on.

tickle 1, zaphod 0

viva hitlary!

lol, good stuff

the Onion News Network is my style of reporting, thanks for the link, mork.

All this money on Obama and he won't be on the ticket in Nov. unless its as VP.

So here's a question: how much real money do you suppose has been bet on this question around the world (not counting money given to candidates by lobbyists and special interest groups)? Though I suppose, in fairness, that is what all that money is as well -- just gambling. Perhaps K Street and the various special interests groups need an intervention, and to be enrolled in Gambler's Anonymous.

I think the reason people from the UK think Obama will win is because all the TV stations here really, really, really, really love the idea that a black man can be US president. I must admit, I'd like to see it too. But once the furore around the Clinton V Obama battle subsides more people will be more exposed to McCain and his polotics, and then the race for the Whitehous will begin. At the moment all we are getting is the fairytale story the british press wish to peddle. You'll see come November. Anyway, it's about time the US had a president named after an oven chip!

Obama will win because he is tall, has a deep voice and looks like a leader and a bunch of primates are voting. It's a sure deal.

Hey jackpot if that was the reason people voted for people then why wouldn't james earl jones have already been elected? What a silly thing to think. What you have going on is the big political machine of Clinton and thier feeling of it is owed to them, against the people loving the feeling of hope that Obama inspires. Look at the Republicans, we gave the nomination to McCain cause we know no republican can win this year, so we are letting him have his moment in the sun for the years of service he has put in. McCain considered joining the John Kerry ticket in 04 and now thinks he is the voice of the Republicans.

To all of you Obama supporters - please, please keep bidding him up. That way I get to buy Clinton at a lower price and make more money come Nov.

McCain supporters...... sorry got no suggestions for you....5 month media ignore period until he names a VP....unless he gets sick or has a scandal.

Destry -- So are you saying that the Republicans had better candidates to run besides McCain but they sat it out so he could be the sacrificial lamb? At 71 and 1/2 this is his last run, agreed, but please do tell who these other candidates were.

On a side note (since there is no way to communicate directly and this is the closest we have to passing a note in study hall) thanks for inviting me to your friends list. I accepted. However you should have let me know you are a Steelers fan.... In the interest of full disclosure I am a Browns fan. I will not hold it against you that you have chosen to follow the dark side....some of my best friends are Steeler's fans....most of them require a dose of their daily medication as well.

My favorite Browns Steelers memory of course is Joe "Turkey" Jones planting Terry Bradshaw on his head (a place which could not be damaged). If you are unfamiliar of this than you are too young to be a worthy adversary. ;)

I am tired of the democrats and republicans. I want to be able to vote for the Federalist party. Adams/Hamilton '08!!!

historyteacher has it right. we've seen this before.
keep bidding up obama, please!!!

HistoryTeacher - wanna make a killing on Hillery?

<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_win_the_most_delegates_in_the_Wyoming_Democratic_caucuses_on_March_8_3801/View>

typo - s/b Hillary

be the first to see it here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6191C4oK6s0

http://thedailywtf.com/Comments/The-Computer-Vote-Totals.aspx#184702
*lol*

Someone (or ones) are betting HUGE on Clinton. I keep buying Mccain and Obama at really low %, and others keep buying clinton and driving her higher and higher! At one point it hit 62%

In Hubdub just like voting, dumb people have their say too!!

you haven't been reading your tea leaves, bcguelph!
you haven't taken the pulse of the day ...

Obama has played THE "CARD".
His support will quickly vanish in the next few weeks.
please see http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Obama_drop_out_of_the_race_before_30th_April__3737/view for more discussion.

Historyteacher, don't worry about being a browns fan, you all are so use to losing that another few years of it wont faze you much.

To the few of you that haven't read the comments on the question that jersjustrolling linked to, Jers has inside secret reliable sources that the leading candidate in the democratic race is going to drop out before April 30th.

I believe the Republicans didn't roll out Jeb Bush because of the Bush fatigue is wearing on the country. I believe he will be rolled out in 2016. I imagine there are other republicans that are senators or govenors that might have been better candidates than McCain, but I think what you saw in this election primary on the Republican side was that McCain benefitted from Romney and Huckabee splitting the conservative vote and allowing McCain to win some states. Look at the results in Florida, if only 60% of Huckabees votes would have chosen Romney he would have carried Florida. The Rudy vote here in florida was enough to push either candidate over the top as well, and in Florida we can vote early up to 2 weeks, so people were voting here before any of the candidates but Rudy made thier way down here.

Jers - THE CARD was played to great effect. He didn't take sides on the issue, he just commented to the importance of the issue. I still believe that he is NOT seen as the black candidate. THE "CARD", as you point out has not been "played". He has addressed an issues that could have negatively effected his bid.

Again, I'm betting strongly on this to make my point, this isn't just rhetoric here.

In his speech he equated his racist anti-American preacher with the little old lady that raised him. Did that win him votes? Out of the the thousands of churchs in Illinois, he has chosen for 20 years to attend this one. That was his CHOICE! He could have left anytime, but his continued attendance is an indication of support for the views expressed. Funny how his staff new this would be a problem and kept the minister out of the spotlight, the minister who is now conveniently unavailable and out of the country. Expect Wright's comments to cause people to revisit Mrs. Obama's "first time I'm proud to be an American" comments. They seem to line up very well together.

Obama is unelectable in November. There are too many voters that even in 2008 will not cast their votes for a black man. McCain lines up better against him than he does against Clinton. The Republicans have to absolutely be drooling over this Wright material and how they can use it against Obama in Nov. I can see the ads now....

I thought it was a great speech, but I already supported him, so that's not surprising. The battle has been going on long enough, I don't think anyone is easily swayed at this point. People are pretty entrenched and whichever way you vote you probably just got a lot surer after the last couple of days.

I do however want to disagree with historyteacher about him being electable. There may be a lot of people who don't want to vote for a black man but I would think the vast majority of them wouldn't vote for a woman either. In fact, I'm willing to bet most of them are Republican anyway so its somewhat moot. The amazing voter turnout this election suggests that the Democratic electorate is pretty excited about both the ethnic and the gender minority having a shot at the white house and I think when it comes down to it we'll vote for either one.

(Look there's me speaking for all the Democrats in America! I like the little emoticsons on GetSatisfaction.. wish I could sign off with one here.)

Sorry, one more point here. No idea what your religious preferences are, but I can speak from my own experience on the church issue. Our current pastor has a lot of strong opinions on the end times and in fact spent 10 minutes last summer talking about how the bombing of Isreal meant the end was nigh. I thought that was pretty ridiculous.

I did not however get up and walk out of the service. I rolled my eyes and wrote notes back and forth to my husband and then proceeded to move on. You will definitely not agree with everything that your pastor says. You take the good stuff and ignore the other stuff. A pastor is also a small element in the importance and power of a church. Most of your interactions and growth come from the people and not the pastor. The ministries and people make a church, not a single person.

I have lots more to say on this but am late for an appt.

Jenni - Unfortunately there are many "Reagan Democrats" who will vote for McCain or not vote rather than vote for Obama. I do not undertand it or agree with it, but have heard it from many personally. Add to this the impending swiftboating of Obama over this and even more will be driven away. Agreed some of these folks will not vote for a woman as well, but some still will. Additionally there will be Republican woman that cross over and vote for Clinton in November whereas Obama pulling in the votes of the 15 or 20 black voters left in the Republican party won't help much.

I agree with what you say about how a church is more than its minister/priest and that you will not agree with everything the person says. However, in the case of Rev. Wright, much has been written about how he built this church, how loyal his following is, etc. This is a church that clearly has been centered on the minister. Additionally, Obama has made much in the past about the role Wright personally played in his life, he has stressed Wright more than the church, so that makes this a fair topic to question Obama on.

I appreciate you saying that you support Obama and so you see his speech through the eyes of a supporter. I did not vote for him so I see it through different, but equally biased eyes. However, ask yourself this. If McCain attended a church where the minister had made racist, sexist or anti-semitic comments and tried to justify prejudice by saying the victims asked for it (such as Wright's ludicrous 9/11 comments) would you question why McCain continued to be a member of the church? Equally if McCain had a membership in a country club that had a history of discriminatory policies wouldn't it be a fair question to ask him why he chose to be a member?

It's not about Obama being black. In fact, he's not. He's bi-racial. Rather, these episodes are a glimpse inside of a man that none of us know much about. They show a view of his judgement, his morals. Why did it take him 20+ years to figure out that Wright was wrong? Perhaps, he is just a regular old politician after all, and he joined this church to give himself credibility and conections in the district where he ran for the Illinois legislature. Now that he is running nationally, Wright is no longer an asset. And remember, there's still more to come...Tony Resko, William Ayers, Bernardine Dohrn and the New Black Panther Party. In the words of Ricky Ricardo, "Someone's gotta lota splainin' to do."

I put 1K on Obama, and it shot him up from 36 to 58? what???

I put $H1K on Hillary, and it shot her up from 29 to 55.
Is there some kind of numeric overflow happening here, or some design-flaw, ala (size of floating-integer type)?

I don't know. I just put another 1k on Mccain, and it shot him up from 17 to 43. With a volume of over 400k in the last 24 hours, it doesn't seem like 1k should be making a huge difference.

400K is the total activity; today's activity is amazing 77K now though.

The market moves a lot, dont know why. 400K however is since 9th Feb, not in the last 24 hours

the activity is simply a volume amount, not the amount actually in the question right now...it counts all the money that is put in and cashed out, so what is basically happening is people are buying and selling but not alot of money is actually in the market right now

Interesting. What I can't figure is why Mccain is running lower than Clinton/Obama when he's the only one who has actually passed the primaries.

After the democrat candidate is chosen, neither remaining candidate should be running under 45 percent, at worst.

Jersjusttrolling - re: your opinion on hillary - you should check-out CNN's top story at this hour (Thursday eve). Basically, they say that she'll need a miracle to win the primary (2/3 of the remaining delegates). She's toast!

I agree that there must not be much money in the market right now. I put in a thousand at 12% (Obama) last night and it cost me 25%. Big bets are throwing the numbers way off. Best to bet $100 at a time.

Better yet, I'm just going to sit on my McCain and Obama bets until the rest of the world figures out the Hillary can't win.

I also agree with MEASURE - McCain will be in a dog fight with either Dem. He's worth at least 45%.

Could this be BushGate?

-- The State Department says security on Barack Obama's passport file has been breached, campaign officials tell CNN.
Thu, 20 Mar 2008 20:33:05

The greasy Republicans looking for dirt - swiftboaters_for_truth need material on Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/20/schneider.look.ahead/index.html

Clinton's a longshot.

Jersjusttrolling - what news do you watch? I'm curious about where you form your opinions.

@bcguelph, according to jersjustroling comment in another question, he is 2 heartbeats away from one of the top power brokers in DC. He is calling Howard Dean by his first name. He doesn't need to watch news, he knows it before it happens.

Bill Richardson is going to endorse Obama today - there goes the latino support of Hillary.

Don't tell jersjusttrolling this type of information, I like that Hillary is so expensive right now. Makes the other two better bets.

Bushgate? All three Pres contenders had passport info "breached". I don't get it. Are you suggesting Bush wants a 3rd term? Help me out here.

At the time of the news break, only one passport file was reported as being breached -- that of a Democrat.

As the old saying goes, "the first reports from the battlefield are always wrong".

With all the attention on Obama's pastor's comments, why is no one talking about the statements John McCain's spiritual advisors have made? They seemed more egregious to me (an independent), something along the lines of needing to wage war to eradicate the false religion of Islam.

Not gonna search for a link, go google it if you care.

jbolli, perhaps you should do some searching. Starting with just who McCain's "spiritual advisor's" are.

Uh, ok.

http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/rod_parsleys_free_pass_1.php?page=all

http://www.motherjones.com/washington_dispatch/2008/03/john-mccain-rod-parsley-spiritual-guide.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/21/mccain-spiritual-guide-ac_n_92757.html

And then there is this guy too..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23448170/

And Erik, thanks for making me waste the last half hour in a vain attempt to educate you fools.

Just kidding.

Kinda.

Well, as you can see jbolli, there is indeed quite a differance here. The "spiritual advisor's" you point to are not that. Rather, they simply endorse McCain. There is no close, 20+ year relationship. They didn't baptize McCain's children. They didn't marry McCain and his wife. McCain didn't sit in their pew for over 20 years, nor did he contribute to their church for 20 years.

McCain calls Rod Parsley his "spiritual guide." That's a hell of a lot more than just an endorsement.

And quit misquoting me, I never called them "advisor's."

jbolli, indeed you did, "With all the attention on Obama's pastor's comments, why is no one talking about the statements John McCain's spiritual advisors have made?" Comment #60. My humblest appologies for my misplaced apostrophe. But, to quote Hillary, "I was sleep deprived." (Let's hope nobody calls her at 3 AM)

I just bought McCain at 25%!! Surely McCain's value jumps to 40% the minute Obama or Clinton get the nomination. If they are as close as the polls say, McCain and the Dem Nominee might both jump to 50-50 the minute the Dem's make their choice.

Easy money - I just don't know how long it will take!

I wish Billary would drop out so the press could start talking about what a womanizer McCain was after his 1st wife was in a disfiguring accident and he ended up meeting cute, rich Cindy in Hawaii for a fling before they got married. Oh, wait, he's a neocon so the corporate press will never bring that up.

What's a "neocon" ? And while you're at it...corporate press, as opposed to...?

i heard a protester say neo-conservative once, when i heard Colin Powell speak at my school. Some of the people in line were paying attention to him until he used that word, lol... It basically proves that the speaker is radically off to one side and destroys any credibility they might have had...

I watched a few elections in a foreign country a few years ago, given to a peculiar attitude: everyone TALKED progressive, THOUGHT moderate, and then -- when they were by themselves in the little polling booth -- they mysteriously VOTED conservative.

I wonder if that isn't what's going on here this year: It's a big deal to TALK Obama, THINK Clinton, and when they get to the actual election, I wonder if the same people aren't going to VOTE McCain...

if you guys elect McCain I will have no sympathy for you when your dollar keeps diving... your country shocks me....

sp10it...ain't it cool? We don't need or want sympathy, we love it when the dollar temporarily drops and boosts our exports, we have the freedom to bitch about it and the freedom to elect whom we please. God bless America!

USA USA USA!!!

US may have problems. There our problems. We still OWN the best country in the world! And WE we settle our problems, like we always have ...

With our heads held high and our friends applauding!

the country that i am PROUD to live in is friends with your country but i am confused on how a citizen of a country can OWN it ?

government by the people for the people... we own and run this nation ;)

@meanderingsearcher

a citizen, in and of themselves, do not own the US.
all citizens, collectively, own this country. If issues become serious enough for the masses to feel the pain, we have the voting booth. Our leaders know it, and know they can be thrown out, if they don't adhere to the majority rule.

i thought it was run by a vast right-wing conspiracy.... mostly because the votes don't seem to matter.....

Mork and Destry have pledged to NOT play this game any further until a satisfactory conclusion is made concerning Satyaki's cheating ... PLEASE follow this link and ask ALL of your (friends) to use these links to send hubdub's admins a huge protest over this unethical situation!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

lucidstates (dismayed)

Hey all hubdubbers, the admins who control this site want EVERYONE'S input on how to deal with this cheater Satyaki and ALL future gamers ... They are asking for everyone to post their opinions and suggestions for the official rules on this link:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?
This ongoing problem stems from this:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Why_is_it_that_Satyaki_keeps_creating_Lahore_Badshahs_vs_xyz_team_questions_yet_Donal_doent_void_them_5294/view#newcomment

Here is the LATEST proposal from hubdub admins that they desire our say on:
Admins want a 4 strikes and your out process:
Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming
Hubdub Representative
To date we have dealt with gaming on a case by case basis. However it has become clear that we need to have a defined process for dealing with individuals that game. Therefore this is our proposed procedure:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning
2. Second identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth
3. Third instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined down to H$1,000
4. Any subsequent instance will result in their ability to create questions removed and potentially suspension of their account.
We propose to apply this procedure for all new instances of gaming however some users are on their first warning and one user is on their second warning.

HOWEVER, several of us users are calling for a MUCH stiffer penalty process and this is our overall latest proposal back to the admins:
We want a 3 strikes you're out process:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth.
2. Second instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks to 30 days) and fined down to H$1,000. AND removal of the gamers' right to create question for a period of time.
3. Any subsequent instance will result in definite, permanent suspension of their account, their IP and all other accounts by the gamer.

Have your say and please add your input at the area the admins have set up for this purpose:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)

I just love it that some Hubdubbers keep Clinton above 20% and make Obama and McCain so cheap to buy. Who are you Clinton buyers?? And why do you cling so fervently to false hope?

(wonders silently who those idiots are...bets on obama and mccain just because they are both going up)

Maybe Bill and Hillary are Hubdubers.

i like that clinton is polled at having a 1:10 shot at the dem nomination, not to mention the gen. election and she is at 20%.... makes you wonder...

What would possibly possess peterww to put 10,000$ on Ralph Nader???

dunno, but it brought clinton down to earth.

I think peter was upset with another question. Anyone know what caused the wagers. It has this market completely screwed up with payouts and percentages.

who is peterww?

I confess I can't make sense out of the movement(s) in this market.

It reminds me of the oft-quoted comment defining owning a boat as, "a hole, (surrounded by water) that you continually pour money into"

Last night I bought Obama, twice, at 25%. Go figure!

Could one of the admins let us know what the (approximate) actual amount of H$ is in this market?
(as opposed to the "total activity" figure)

I saw Obama at 1% on several occassions. This is a completely out of control market, there is definite bug in this market.

Are people just betting, then cashing in based on their short-term poll predictions?

I think some are -- sure.
Someone, apparently, keeps buying Clinton.

This market needs to be defraged ;-) something still isn't right with the way this market moves.
(see above 2 or 3 comments)

The Hubdub team is taking a look at this, if it is deemed the market needs to be suspended it will happen.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

agreed, I just made a couple bets in a row and the numbers were very strange.

Who's Ralph Nader?

I've got quite a bit in this market, and have seen the same wild swings... especially for the light activity during the same time periods...someone must be selling short...

This market was a real mess last night. I'm not trying it today. You click to buy at a certain amount, and **bling** -- it takes 45 seconds to complete the single transaction and (no surprise) -- THAT AIN'T WHAT YOU GETS!

The numbers keep swinging and you finally see a favorable opening to your WRONG purchase price. And **bling** -- it takes another 45 seconds to complete the sale transaction and (again, no surprise) -- YOU DON'T GET WHAT YOU ARE PROMISED.

This is the "all-time" hubdub RUSSIAN ROULETTE PREDICTION MARKET. Take a spin and see what you get!

I was curious... I tried to buy low, but ended up with like 58%!!! I'm just glad i purchased the right candidate...

Anyone know why this is suspended?

I've love to sell some Obama predictions at 67%!!

WOW, big sell off of mccain, and purchase of Obama...

Market suspended to examine potential market malfunction.

Look for Bill in there !

"market malfunction"....LOL

Wow. The other option remains strong at 2% while McCain, Clinton, and Obama go nuts! Are these people betting on Cheney getting it is Bush dies or is impeached? Or perhaps a Gore-comes-in-from-nowhere bid?

This question is like 50% of my holdings, I hope all is well.

Maybe Clinton and McCain had negative stories about them which was found by a hubduber before any major news network!

from the beginning this question has had the biggest difference in percentage on even the smallest bet (assuming no bug) ive seen on pretty much any question from day 1..i didnt bet very much per bet because of it and if someone bet a couple thou not knowing this it would kill the odds in a crazy way

yeah, i have major H$ on this market, if it gets voided i am gonna be bummed.

can we void it? it would than repay all my bets on clinton for the original price :)

@theonecalled michael, do you know something that the rest of us don't. You said you picked the right candidate.
@ everyone else - I know a major wager was placed on Ralph Nader then a big wager on bloomberg, part of me felt it was throwing money away just to, but how can we ever stop that. After the nomination the odds should be about 50-50 or so, so they seem pretty close to accurate now.

Ryan, Last night this question was suspended for investigation. Today it's back to normal. What did you guys decide/find out?

Hi,

Last night I suspended the market because of the wonky graph. Chris took a look at the market to examine it for any malfunctions. He unsuspended the market with this explanation :

"I have changed the make prediction screen so that if you cannot get a prediction at the price you expect, no prediction will be made. I think this should eliminate the crazy movement in this market. Please flag again if it continues to go completely crazy."

So if the wonkiness continues please inform me, but hopefully this will fix the problem with the market.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

By right candidate, I mean Obama. I did not wager on anyone except obama and mccain.... in short "It wasn't me..."

ryan,
shouldn't it always be ensured that if a wager is made, it is done using the percentages show in the dialog to the user?
i mean, isn't that what also applies to the DOW markets? I've seen that functionality there before and i wonder if there are different implementations of this screen around ...

I have seen the "the market has moved, price is not available" screen on this market (US President) before yesterday's adjustment by Chris. Maybe he did something "more gooder" to smooth out this jumping market.
(McCain was at 20% last night for a short time!)

Solution to this and other problems: Real time existing market valuation indicated above question.

I like it, real time everything, instant buy and sell, amount of money in the market instead of activity... Real Time Man... that's the ticket...

I think activity is important. It's an historical record. Total money in market would be nice too though. Call it volume, maybe.

Whoops! I see it's called total activity. Maybe total activity and current activity. Anyway...

In case anybody is wondering the change I made was that the "Market has moved and price is no longer available" prompt previously only appeared if you wagered one of the set amounts (20, 50 or 100). It now applies to custom amounts as well

Is there a cap on 120 comments per question?

Guess not.

@jbolli - lol

I think the cap is 123

or 124

maybe 125?

if i'm getting better than 2:1 on obama, i'm taking it... i just hate when the market sneezes, and crap percentages come out...

mccain and obama both at 20% right now.. wow!

Maybe someone out there can please help me.
I made a prediction at 27% and graph up top now shows that prediction at 34%. but to cash it in I will LOSE HD$.
How is this?
Thanks.

This is how making stakes work:
You get a percentage based on the current value of the option in combination with the amount of your stake.
Say: Current percentage of the option is 50%, you stake 10000 H$, will lead to having your stake at eg. 52% and rises the value of the option to 55%.
Cashing in will give you back the 1000 H$ at 52%, the value of the option will drop back to 50%.

This only works, if NO ONE ELSE makes stakes in the mean time. I think, in your case, someone else made predictions on other options so your stake value moved.

This question here is a very volatile market btw.

Hi everyone,

We've been looking at the market and so far it seems to be running fine. It is very volatile due to all the bets placed on it every day. But the dynamics of the market are running as smooth as possible. If anyone has anyone has nay other questions please do flag or email me.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

This is a LONG TERM market... when I was fairly new to the site I quickly and enthusiastically wagered on this question, but the next day I was out of H$ for predictions and cashed out at a small profit to use on other short term markets.

The first couple weekends of my Hubdub life I kept this page up ALL day Sat and Sun. Several times an hour I would pause my game/movie/chatting to return to this page hoping for a 'good-deal'.

Back then Hillary had more value than today, and whenever anyone bought/sold H$1000 on anyone of the three I'd purchase H$100 on the best deal. The market would quickly even back out to what it was before as other users and myself bought up the good deals.

I'm betting that there are nearly as many SELLERS each day as BUYERS, meaning the total activity here is way over the amount left in.

quote: Maybe someone out there can please help me.
I made a prediction at 27% and graph up top now shows that prediction at 34%. but to cash it in I will"

I agree with you. I placed at 28% for McCain yesterday. His numbers are up today. However, it claims I placed in at McCain at over 40%! When was the last time McCain was 40%?? It also says I can cash at 27% despite it currently being 36%. This one is messed up!

I have said this market was screwey from day one, I can only guess that it is because of the volume... oh, well, can't void it now... too many people have cashed out.... let's try to figure this out before the next election, though...

well, i've got 13,700 H$ on this, and I'm likely to buy more!!! but now I invest in other candidates, because I know, in the end, the market will swing both ways...BOTH, not all three, anymore...hehehehehehe

I know the odds should be close to 50/50, so i started betting on Mccain when he dips, hope y'all don't mind if i make a little quick cash, as my net worth swings wildly on this question....

I feel REALLY BAD for the guys who have money on her,,,(see my avatar for the truth)

tocm:

You are right on both counts. This market has been goofed from day one AND the odds truly should be 50/50. Here's the problem with putting a lot of H$ into it, though: Too many peoples' personal biases and wishful thinking are driving this market on and off of reality. That means that if you bet right and people skew the market by emotion you could end up with all of your money tied up until you are ultimately proven to be correct. Worse yet, the odds variance isn't high enough to make it worthwhile. I have learned the hard way that you can play Hubdub, be right, and still lose when opportunity cost (i.e. money tied up for long time for low payoff) is taken into consideration.

omg has anybody seen this yet?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvuMDmqwwbI

cancelledbysbc: omg has anybody seen this yet?

Yeah, check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBGIQ7ZuuiU

You guys are ridiculous. Although Rick Roll Rules!!!

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

I just put another 300 on McCain, making it an even 2k. Thanks to the great odds' I'm going to get a nice bump when he wins eh?

@ Theonecalledmicheal: Your avatar is incredibly offensive. If I was so stupid I bought into a conspiracy theory that even 99% of conspiracy theory nuts say is 100% pure BS, I wouldn't brag about it. To be honest, I simply hate people that claim it was an inside job, especially when they act like they are enlightened because they now "the truth". It's that righteous holier than thou attitude of a hard core vegan mixed with the stupidity of someone who says that the holocaust never happened. If you want to hate the gov than fine, there are certainly enough legitimate reasons to do so, so drop this BS made up one!

Really? Offensive? A little touchy, aren't you? I think this picture is hilarious! Are you SURE you know all the facts about 9/11? That sounds a little self-righteous, to me... also, are you aware that 85% of all statistics are made up to suit the speakers point? Have you talked to 99% of conspiracy nuts? You sound like a little spoiled brat who whines when he can't control what others do or say...

Don't worry, I change my avatar about once a month, but for you, i'm leaving it up an extra month...

BTW, lighten up, life's too short....

check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Odp1FO0Vmuw

@numbskull (ironman):
you are certainly entitled to your own opinion, but you are NOT entitled to your own set of "facts"....

coincidence? That three buildings fell down when two of them were hit by extra large jumbo jets set to fly all the way across the country? That they fell on the same day, that happened to be a terrorist attack? These are not coincidences, they are quite clearly related to the attack. that video only shows how pathetic the "evidence" of this conspiracy is.

And please do leave your avatar up an extra month, I never asked you to take it down and honestly the more people know how stupid you are the better.

"Abraham Lincoln dies the exact same day the Titanic sinks, except 47 years prior! The Titanic had the capacity to carry 3,547 passengers aboard! They both have 47!!!!

COINCIDENCE??? " Maddox@ Xmission

i didn't even watch that video, i just knew it would anger and offend you,,,,

there is no coincidence... what is missing from all these investigations is the evidence from the 1993 bombing and the long island contractors that were fired when they said the buildings needed to be torn down because of the extent of foundation dammage....other contractors were brought in who would certify that building to be safe.... six weeks before the attack, the new lease holder took out extensive insurance on the property and stould to make millions...a man connected to the bush family... that is the interesting part of the theory... i'm a follower of the theories, but am open minded enough to not be 100% convinced, so i wait for the definitve proof, one way or the other...of course, a negative can't be proven (i.e. that there was not a conspiracy)...

you must be one of the few who still think Oswald acted alone...

stupid, huh? that's very adult of you...

Oswald, please. You can't say that one theory is true therefore another one is. furthermore, a "conspiracy theory" is a term used to describe theories that have almost no support (from evidence or the general public) that a small fringe group clings to and claims proves that the government is out to get them and everyone else.

This theory isn't the first, and it wont be the last, but it is one of the least believable theories and also the one topic people are not going to let you play with.

http://www.scrippsnews.com/911poll

what people? how is it "playing with"... is the gov't going to have some crackdown on people who don't agree with their official version of things? sounds like a conservative's dream come true!

so, are you agreeing with the people who say oswald did not act alone? you, sir, are a conspiracy theorist!

i guess next you'll say their are no alien life forms visiting our planet!

lol

what people? The people, as in "The people". I thought that was clear. (?) I don't understand how you don't understand that :p

As for playing with, yes I put it too mildly. I should have said spitting on, disrespecting, etc... I, like most people have a friend that was in New York when 9-11 occurred, and so I am personally affected by it. Just becuase you aren't doesn't make it fair game to spin wild stories about.

BTW, nice article! I especially like this part:

"people with only a high school education and Democrats were especially likely to suspect federal involvement in 9/11."

So I guess only people with lower intelligence buy into the conspiracy right? That's who I ask important questions, High schoolers! just like Micheal Moore, who taught us that Canadian drop outs totally know why America is so violent!!!

Wasn't Oswald helped by Bush?

Theorists say the mafia helped Oswald.
Fact is; no sign of Bush having ties to the mafia.
George W. Bush went to Osama bin ladens banker for the millions instead of the Mafia.
Why? you ask....because he could.

I actually have many friends in New York, and try to make it up there every year. I love the city! I would actually like to live in Brooklyn one day... there is a lot more suspicion about the government's participation in the attacks and/or non-action in the preventing them there than anywhere else in the world. Have you walked around Union Square since the attacks? Have you hung out in bars on the (lower) east side or in the Village and spoken with natives about their thoughts? I have...

*chuckles*...well, everything else is Bush's fault, isn't it?

<a href="http://s290.photobucket.com/albums/ll268/osnap4159/?action=view¤t=Thread-I_like_where_this_thread_is_.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i290.photobucket.com/albums/ll268/osnap4159/Thread-I_like_where_this_thread_is_.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>

I like where this is going...

who has the most in this market? I have 14,500.... just curious....

Wellll Erik, not everything, but I could make you up a nice list, starting with allowing 9/11 and then covering up bunches of stuff, including how safe it was for the rescue workers. And ironman, I personally think there probably wasn't a conspiracy but just to shine some light on it why not have a real investigation? If there's nothing to hide, why hide everything?

This is a huge market isn't it? I've been in and out of it a few times.

thanks, owl, for speaking up for reason, except the part about Bush not being responsible for all bad things.... LOL

I was throwing Erik a bone.

the picture changed... Billary's gone... now I only see Barack Hussein Obamama and John "Lettuce" McCant

mine changed, too, but not because ironman288 was offended... i just like to change it from time to time... let me know what you think!

@ironman288:

http://www.911truth.org/article.php?story=20040830120349841

open it up, or the mind dies....

@tocm - people believe in all kinds of bizarre theories... area 51, alien anal probes, Santa Claus, 911 conspiracies...

open it up, and your brains fall out

THANK GOD THIS IS OVER !

oh wait ...

The Iowa Caucus was 5 months ago (154 days) on January 3, 2008

The Presidential Election is 5 months (154 days), from today, on November 4, 2008 ...

Feels like something out of Ground Hog Day.

The pollsters have Obama and McCain at a near deadheat. Why such a big spread in Hubdub?

The pollsters have Obama and McCain at a near deadheat. Why such a big spread in Hubdub?

bcquelph: The pollsters have Obama and McCain at a near deadheat. Why such a big spread in Hubdub?

I was wondering that too. Are people voting with their brains or their hearts? I would love to see Obama in the White House but from the sounds of it there is a lot of opposition to him getting there.

i dont think the odds r really as reflective as other questions..the odds on this question change very dramatically with even a wager of a couple of hundred dollars..they have done that since the question was started and if somebody doesnt know that and puts even 500 bux on somebody there is a large percentage shift

Hi,

Wrote a blog post that touched on this fact earlier this week on the Hubdub blog located here: http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/06/02/how-obama-finally-broke-free-of-clinton-and-mccain/

Feedback Appreciated,

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

Again, I made a small bet onnthis question and the odds jumped wildly. IS THIS MARKET OPERATING CORRECTLY???

Look at the graph - isn't that an indication that this question is somewhat messed-up?

Hi,

It still is operating correctly. But I did find the graph image to be rather odd so I've asked Rob to take a look at the market.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

For the week of June 15-21:
Obama: Reneges on promise to use public financing if his opponent would agree to same.
Obama: Remains silent as the majority Democratic Party agrees to FISA/Telecom Immunity, with immunity for torture.

Week's advantage: McCain

Obama: I’ll Fight To Strip Telecom Immunity From FISA
http://rawstory.com/news08/2008/06/21/obama-ill-fight-to-strip-telecom-immunity-from-fisa/

Interesting that this prediction market seems to favor Obama more than most of the polls. I wonder why that is, could it be the international aspect.

I've found that interesting at times too (that this market seems to favor Obama so heavily), but I think it's just the predictive nature of it...not a showing of support. I wonder what some national polling would show on the question of who do you THINK will win the election, regardless of whom you support...

This is a really nice long-term market with lots of opportunity to jump in and out and make some $H......I wonder how much is actually on line in this market? Certainly much less than the $H1,369,000 that has been wagered along the way...

I have about 2 pages of predictions in this market and 4 pages of cash outs... This has really got to be the most active market on hubdub!

I too have been surprised about the lopsided nature of this graph. I keep waiting for Barack to drop back to near 50, as the polling suggests, but its just not happening.. There was a gallup poll a couple of days ago that did ask "who do you THINK will win".. Democrats were about 50/50 but the Republicans think Barack will win. I thought that was kind of amusing.

Hi,

While there are international Hubdub users the wide majority are Americans. Another think to keep in mind though is that for the real money prediction markets (Intrade), they follow use reasonably close for this market. Intrade is run from Ireland so it's international as well. I use Google analytics to track usage of Hubdub and:

We have around everyday maybe 15% of the users logging on from IP's not within the US. So there is certainly an argument to be made there.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

reverend_right just voted for John Mccain...too funny

Well, predicted McCain, I just saw the user-name and prediction and got a kick out of that.

Hilliary Clinton has 0 chance of being the next president of the united states. I think they should write it that way.

my 2k bet just bumped McCain ahead 38%. there's going to some more wild swings in that graph yet...

hmm. i'm curious

what made this switch from Obama to MCcain??

bah, at this point i just want my money back... all 4k of it, and i'll cash out for even rates (though not a loss becuase McCain will definitely win...

though on the other hand Obama said that the day he won the nomination will be pinpointed as the day the "Earth began to heal", so apparently Bush is doing a much better job than we all thought :p

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/acting_presidents.php

If Bush has another colonoscopy and Cheney steps in for a few hours again does that make Cheney the correct answer?

What happened to the "other" category? The options have changed, how can that happen? I want my money back :).

The other options have been hidden to make the appearance of the market clearer. Predictions already placed on them remain valid however, and can still be cashed in (if they are worth anything)

You should reinstate the other options because someone may decide to put a position on those, which would dramatically increase the value of somone with a position; this is a very valid techinque for playing the game.

Obama girl - Giuliani girl - McCain girl...

Introducing: Nobama Girl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MADZnsIkpdQ

@yonemoto - the other options are still there... just hidden

Here's Hillary:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/MarketOption/hillary_3483/Open

Too much work. I had placed bids on a low-valued candidate on the speculation that their values would dramatically rise. Now I won't be able to cash out on those bids using my strategy, because no one will put positions on this candidate.

Furthermore, the "other" option should still be around, since the question explicitly says "who will be the next president", (not who will win the election in november) which could conceivably be Dick Cheney, should GWB be (sucessfully) impeached, resign, assasination, et cetera.

I agree the low-value options should be restored. Hubdub will look foolish if one of the major candidates withdraws, etc.

Hillary Clinton is trading at 3.5% as next president on Intrade, and never went below 1% or 2% in recent weeks, which indicates that people who had something to lose considered her election within the bounds of possibility. So it was presumptuous of Hubdub to remove her, and Other, from the ballot. (I had been waiting for Other to offer really good odds and bet heavily on it--and at just that point it was removed.) If Hubdub wanted to pare down the list, it should at least have provided links to all the removed possibilities in its clickable "More" section.

I will bring these issues up again in order to get the options shown again. I believe just like the rest of you that if there are options they should be shown.

i am also running, albeit as an independent, my g/f promised to vote for me, and damnit: I DEMAND RESPECT! also, is lucidstates still protesting? if so, i am nominating him as my VP if only for his tenacity in the face of complete disinterest. all for now.

duckie (not yet drunk - enough)

I can see Clinton, Gore, Biden and whoever McCain's VP potentially should be included. Let me discuss this with the team.

this is not a matter of "who should be included" but "who was on the list when the market was set".

We have had some internal debate about this question. This has been the one exception that we have made to the rule of not modifying live markets once they are created. However in this instance the question is so high profile and this is one of our most popular pages for new users we felt it made sense to restrict the other options. The probability of neither Obama or McCain being the next president is exceptionally low.

Longer term we plan to introduce a new market type which will allow us to add outcomes as the market progresses and to show only the favorites. Unfortunately this will be several months away. After some consideration in this instance the view is keep it as only Obama and McCain. Feel free to contact me nigel [at] hubdub [dot] com if you think we are wrong on that.

Video has been added to background of market. The entire acceptance speech of Barack Obama is available, and McCains video will be added once he gives his acceptance speech.

#202, nigeleccles: "we felt it made sense to restrict the other options. The probability of neither Obama or McCain being the next president is exceptionally low."

I'm marking your words.

Keep Bidding up Obama! That way i can swoop in and get McCains at a steal!

@destry:

We're waiting... http://www.c-spanarchives.org/flash/player_embed.php?pid=280797-1&start=11819.00&stop=14758.00&noautoplay=1

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080906/ap_on_el_pr/voter_registration

let's see how many new voters actually vote!!!!!!!!!

@205: The place to get real steals on McCain (sometimes below 20%, although only briefly) is on a parallel question (Which party will win the election?), at: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_win_the_US_Presidential_Election_in_2008_747

@Nigel (202)

Just simply put a "more options" button, allowing it to be (relatively easy, without URL hacking) to place votes for other people on the original list.

Part of the way hubdub works is to allow for people to place and withdraw bids, so one may be able to 'ride' a wave of popularity in a low-valued bid.

Both candidates acceptance speeches have been added to the market. I have embed the youtube video provided by c-span. So there should be no partiality.

Traders should also consider the MASSIVE voter purges going on across key states crucial to Obama victory - Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio and Florida have had tens of thousands of mostly black and Latino voters purged from the voter polls in the past few weeks:

http://www.alternet.org/democracy/92695/?page=entire

http://www.gregpalast.com/obama-doesn%E2%80%99t-sweat-he-should/#comment-7058

It may, indeed, be the case that Obama would win if the elections were not manipulated/rigged/massaged as they have been since Rove rose to such prominence from 2000.

@212 - Remember who is from Chicago in this race. That is where they are known for going through cemetaries and registering voters. Let's don't start these conspiracy theories until there is good evidence - anyone unfairly affected by these voter purges still have time to get it sorted out before November.

Hey! Why isn't Dick Cheney a choice here? : )

Jackie Mason: I'll tell you the truth. Barack Obama isn't only fooling the Jews. He's fooling all the people of America. Right now people are determined to prove they can vote for a Black person because they were told they're racists all their lives. The White man is walking around feeling guilty thinking if they don't vote for Barack Obama they're a racist.

But as far as the Jews are concerned, they are still wedded to the Democratic party when the Democratic party is not interested in Israel. The Democratic party has voted very often against Israel on major issues. The Republican party is determined to help Israel almost more then the Jews are. Even the Hasidic Jews. I don't care how religious you are. They're not as willing to fight for Israel as the Evangelical Goyim. But since the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt the Jews have been told that the Republicans are for big business and not for the underdog. The Jews feel the Democrats are helping the struggling people. And they still believe it. The Jews are more willing to
feel guilty for not helping a poor person then anybody else is. Because a Jew has to feel that he's always compassionate and always helping the underdog.

Wooo hooo.... McCain for only 41%!!!! 10 less than intrade.com!!! I love a bargain :-D

Yeah, it is interesting that http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Which_combination_will_occur_after_the_08_elections_3278 is predicting the other way...

@fof that is a bargain! REPPRES+DEMSEN+DEMHOUSE is going for 43% over on the "which combination question"

Well i know that McCain is going to win. And i dont think that the democratic senate are going anywhere (even though they have the lowest approval ratings in recent years. I dont think that the democrats are going to be able to take the representitives yet. What is the total count now? Anyone know?

Its nice to be able to "win" even if my candidate loses.

Ha ha yeah.

"lowest approval ratings in recent years"

In all approval rating recorded history.

Really? Wow..... how pathetic! A shining example of what will happen if Obama gets in. People blame bush for the countrys problems however really he doesnt have a lot of power. Its that Democratic Congress. They are a pathetic bunch of fools who figured if they could blame bush for there failures then they are pretty much set to win the white house. They are running our country to the ground with there foolishness!

@dragonfangxl: Yeah, this is the same Congress that just passed the "Comprehensive American Energy Security and Consumer Protection Act" that claims to allow drilling, but the only catch is that they only allow it more than 50 mile off the coast - effectively preventing drilling where most of the oil is! No wonder their approval rating is so low, when they do stuff like this.

dragonfangxl: keep it up! I really want Obama to win, and with your help them will.

Is it just me or did the settlement details change? I recall the settlement details stating that if no election occurs, the "other" choice wins.

@gingerboi.........??????? That sentence didnt make any sense. "dragonfangxl: keep it up! I really want Obama to win, and with your help them will." A: i was insulting the democratic congress and speaking out against obama. How the heck would that help obama win? B: "and with your help them will" ......??? Well with my help them will i hope.

Wooohooo.... I'm gaming this question! I just voted by absentee ballot for Palin (the first Woman vice president) :-D

In order to game this question properly you need to register to vote in Florida, Ohio, Colorado and then cast ballots in all 3. That would be 3 well placed votes.

@destry - LOL... vote early and vote often ;-)

@fof - LOL Exit polls from cemeteries in Florida suggest that your vote was out-numbered goingn the other way! :-)

yeah, dead people disagree with my ideology

I'm so sure Obama's going to win that I'm going to bet H$1 @ 76%!!!!

Boo-yaa!!!

man, if nader wins i am gonna make so much freakin money!!

man, if nader wins i am gonna make so much freakin money!!

@dragonfangxl

I hope you are ready to pay higher taxes and be in endless wars, because that is the only thing McCain is planning for you. Aren't you the least bit concerned that Palin could take over as president given McCain's age and medical conditions. Why do you hate America so much that you would throw away your vote?

... now that the Obama talking points have been made ...
oh, but you forgot hoping for a change for the future of hope and change in a world where hope leads to change and ....

Suggest extending the suspend date on the grounds that something might change between november and January... This question says "who will be" not "who will be elected", so we won't know until the date of inaguruation.

s99nj, not only would i be ok with Palin taking over as president, i would prefer it. She is a true conservative! She has experience leading! She had been tried and tested! Does Obama share even one of those charateristics? No!

@yonemoto...hence my wager on Clinton (again). If Obama was suddenly 'not there' for election/hold office then possibly second choice for Dems would fall to Hillary (prior to Nov 4th).
@ dragonfangxl...a lawyer and a little know Senator from Illinois with no record of significant accomplishments in the Senate, never held office anywhere before being elected to the Senate, was told he had no business being the "Commander in Chief"...went on to become one of the greatest Presidents of the US...President Lincoln (or Senator Obama)...you make the distinction.

President Lincoln was corrupt. He bribed members of the electoral college, switched the ballet boxes, changed the national election results, and then denied it all. I admit he was a good president when he got there but id rather not repeat that scenario again.

Yes, Lincoln is generally recognized as having been a good president. Safe to say.

He was a good president, but his methods were corrupt. That being said i think that it was for the good of the american people that he was elected. Now lets act for the good of the american people again cept this time with John McCain.

@dragon
just to let you know, i signed you up for the "move-on" newsletter, i know you appreciate it.... I told them you'd donate $20 a month to their cause, but that is up to you....i know you'll be conscientous in reading over their literature and deciding for yourself if $20 a month is enough to give them.... it's the least i could do...... Love always, -Michael....


LOL

I sure hope nader wins. I will win almost $300K. YAY.

I would be very suprised if ralphy did manage to sweep this election out from under our feet.

Investors Business Daily / TIPP poll has the last two days like this:

Release Date	McCain	Obama	Undecided	Spread
November 2	44.6%	46.7%	8.7%	+2.1 Obama
November 1	43.4%	47.9%	8.7%	+4.5 Obama

That is a pretty significant shift in McCain's direction, and notice that "Undecided" numbers didn't change!

In under three hours Berg's lawsuit will land in Supreme Court Justice Souter's lap. His ruling could knock this whole contest in a cocked hat, if he demands a birth certificate from Obama. (I presume this would make "Other"--i.e., Biden--the winner. Anyway, that's how I've been betting.)

Yeah I told you guys.

Why was this settled? He is not president. He is president elect. He is being sued by 10 different people, he is getting death threats, i thinks its safe to say there is a possibility that he wont make it as far as president.
@eogerkni how did it go?

RIIIIIIIIIiiiiiiiight. ;)