
Who will buy Yahoo?
http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=17&artnum=2&issue=20081231
Background:>
Would you sleep with me for $10m?
It is clear that Yahoo’s position is shifting from “We don’t want to be bought” to “OK, but that isn’t enough”. It is a bit like the old joke where a guy propositions a girl with the line “Would you sleep with me for $10m?”. The girl says well for one night she probably would. The guy then makes the same proposal but for $100. The girl says “What do you think I am, a prostitute!?” to which the guy replies “We’ve already established your status, I’m just trying to negotiate the price!”.
Forecasting a deal
Anyway, Yahoo is currently trading at $27.4 per share (pre-opening) so some investors certainly think that Microsoft could walk away. However more interestingly the forecast chance of Yahoo staying independent is steadily dropping on the Hubdub prediction market. Currently Hubdub predictors are forecasting the percentage chance of Yahoo being independent at the end of 2008 as around 15%. So will it be bye bye Yahoo, hello Microhoo?
Settlement details:This question will be settled on the announcement of the acquisition of Yahoo!, not completion. If an acquisition occurs involving a number of parties then the question will be settled as the lead or the investor taking the largest stake. If there is no clarity as to who the lead investor is then the question will be voided. If no acquisition has occured by the end of 2008, the question will be settled as "Still independent by end of '08".
| Microsoft |
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| News Corp |
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| Viacom |
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| Time Warner |
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| Other public company |
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| Private equity |
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| Still independent by end of '08 |
|
- Activity: H$263,961 |
- Predictions: 1104 |
Comments: 26
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 8:32pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Microsoft: 10%, News Corp: 5%, Viacom: 2%, Time Warner: 1%, Other public company: 3%, Private equity: 5%, Still independent by end of '08: 74%
Action history:
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 8:32pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (1104)
Comments (26)
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This question is starting to get very interesting (not that Henry Blodget has never been wrong before *ahem*)
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Thoughts?
Looks like Microsoft is still the only game in town.
http://www.bloggingbuyouts.com/2008/02/11/a-yahoo-yhoo-overture-to-aol-twx/
Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
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mork (This user: Is On Strike)
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