nigeleccles![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Who will buy Yahoo?
12%
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Would you sleep with me for $10m?
It is clear that Yahoo’s position is shifting from “We don’t want to be bought” to “OK, but that isn’t enough”. It is a bit like the old joke where a guy propositions a girl with the line “Would you sleep with me for $10m?”. The girl says well for one night she probably would. The guy then makes the same proposal but for $100. The girl says “What do you think I am, a prostitute!?” to which the guy replies “We’ve already established your status, I’m just trying to negotiate the price!”.
Forecasting a deal
Anyway, Yahoo is currently trading at $27.4 per share (pre-opening) so some investors certainly think that Microsoft could walk away. However more interestingly the forecast chance of Yahoo staying independent is steadily dropping on the Hubdub prediction market. Currently Hubdub predictors are forecasting the percentage chance of Yahoo being independent at the end of 2008 as around 15%. So will it be bye bye Yahoo, hello Microhoo?
Make your prediction!
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Microsoft |
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News Corp |
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Viacom |
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Time Warner |
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Other public company |
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Private equity |
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Still independent by end of '08 |
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Settlement details:
This question will be settled on the announcement of the acquisition of Yahoo!, not completion. If an acquisition occurs involving a number of parties then the question will be settled as the lead or the investor taking the largest stake. If there is no clarity as to who the lead investor is then the question will be voided. If no acquisition has occured by the end of 2008, the question will be settled as "Still independent by end of '08".
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (23 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Microsoft: 10%, News Corp: 5%, Viacom: 2%, Time Warner: 1%, Other public company: 3%, Private equity: 5%, Still independent by end of '08: 74%
Action history:
nigeleccles nigeleccles: Note on News Corp rumours: If News Corp strike a deal with Yahoo but do not acquire then Yahoo would be considered to remain independent nigeleccles 
andrew
Settlement details: This question will be settled on the announcement of the acquisition of Yahoo!, not completion. If an acquisition occurs involving a number of parties then the question will be settled as the lead or the investor taking the largest stake. If there is no clarity as to who the lead investor is then the question will be voided. If no acquisition has occured by the end of 2008, the question will be settled as "Still independent by end of '08".... read all
Get widget!New!Recent predictions
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Microsoft (H$1,021)
battle3321 predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$135)
atrane predicted Microsoft (H$20)thepeoplegeekllc predicted Microsoft (H$1,000)
sweet_baby_rye predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$100)
amice predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$50)falcon2000eg predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$300)
gingerboi predicted Microsoft (H$500)sean_macniven predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$100)yoshi predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$20)New to Hubdub?
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More questions by
nigeleccles
40 settled, 13 voided
This question is starting to get very interesting (not that Henry Blodget has never been wrong before *ahem*)
"Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?
To date, Hubdub staff who settle questions have also participated in making predictions on those and other questions. We have strived to be as objective as possible on every settlement and settlements are regularly cross-checked. However some users perceive that this conflict of interest may cause us to incorrectly settle questions for our benefit. We can change the rules to:
(1) No restriction (status quo)
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Thoughts?
Looks like Microsoft is still the only game in town.
http://www.bloggingbuyouts.com/2008/02/11/a-yahoo-yhoo-overture-to-aol-twx/
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mork (This user: Is On Strike)
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