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Who will buy Yahoo?

Background: Silicon Alley Insider (http://tinyurl.com/5fdm7z) reports that Microsoft is willing to raise its offer for Yahoo to $32-33 per share. Yahoo’s board are reported to want a number in the high 30’s which is all very well given that Yahoo’s stock price will probably drop to the low 20’s if Microsoft walks.

Would you sleep with me for $10m?

It is clear that Yahoo’s position is shifting from “We don’t want to be bought” to “OK, but that isn’t enough”. It is a bit like the old joke where a guy propositions a girl with the line “Would you sleep with me for $10m?”. The girl says well for one night she probably would. The guy then makes the same proposal but for $100. The girl says “What do you think I am, a prostitute!?” to which the guy replies “We’ve already established your status, I’m just trying to negotiate the price!”.

Forecasting a deal

Anyway, Yahoo is currently trading at $27.4 per share (pre-opening) so some investors certainly think that Microsoft could walk away. However more interestingly the forecast chance of Yahoo staying independent is steadily dropping on the Hubdub prediction market. Currently Hubdub predictors are forecasting the percentage chance of Yahoo being independent at the end of 2008 as around 15%. So will it be bye bye Yahoo, hello Microhoo?

Settlement details:This question will be settled on the announcement of the acquisition of Yahoo!, not completion. If an acquisition occurs involving a number of parties then the question will be settled as the lead or the investor taking the largest stake. If there is no clarity as to who the lead investor is then the question will be voided. If no acquisition has occured by the end of 2008, the question will be settled as "Still independent by end of '08".

 
Forecast history %
Microsoft
1%
News Corp
0%
Viacom
0%
Time Warner
0%
Other public company
0%
Private equity
0%
Still independent by end of '08
99%
Settled as Still independent by end of '08 on Thu 1st Jan 8:32pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 8:32pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Microsoft: 10%, News Corp: 5%, Viacom: 2%, Time Warner: 1%, Other public company: 3%, Private equity: 5%, Still independent by end of '08: 74%

Action history:

Created Thu 24th Jan 2008 7:39am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Clarified Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:43am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: Note on News Corp rumours: If News Corp strike a deal with Yahoo but do not acquire then Yahoo would be considered to remain independent
Edited Fri 15th Feb 2008 5:36am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:20pm PST by andrew
Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Still independent by end of '08' Thu 1st Jan 8:32pm PST by chris[Admin]: http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=17&artnum=2&issue=20081231

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 8:32pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (1104)

46 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$2,000 at 98%)
46 weeks ago
chris[Admin] predicted Still independent by end of '08 (H$2,020 at 95%)
46 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Microsoft (H$50 at 5%)
46 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Microsoft (H$50 at 3%)
46 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Private equity (H$2 at 0%)

Comments (26)

  1 ratel
I don't think yahoo will go so easy, they'll look for someone to come back them up
posted 1 year ago
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/02/hold-everything-we-may-get-another-yhoo-bidder.html

This question is starting to get very interesting (not that Henry Blodget has never been wrong before *ahem*)
posted 1 year ago
  3 dollars
you should weigh in on the question @ getsatisfaction by clicking help then the getsatisfaction link the question there is:

"Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?

To date, Hubdub staff who settle questions have also participated in making predictions on those and other questions. We have strived to be as objective as possible on every settlement and settlements are regularly cross-checked. However some users perceive that this conflict of interest may cause us to incorrectly settle questions for our benefit. We can change the rules to:
(1) No restriction (status quo)
(2) No predicting on questions within their category
(3) No predicting on any questions

Thoughts?
posted 1 year ago
  4 ratel
i think option 2 is the most fair
posted 1 year ago
  5 ratel
i think option 2 is the most fair
posted 1 year ago
i think option 1 is fair, as long as objections to the settlement are looked at by another hubdub staff member. the more people participate, the better, in my humble opinion. it's not like there is any real money involved.
posted 1 year ago
  7 rohan
Looking at all the news, looks like Yahoo! wants to remain private and make an alliance with Google.
posted 1 year ago
  8 ratel
I'm assuming that would fall under "Still independent..." if its just a deal with Google and they're not bought.
posted 1 year ago
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/technology/04yahoo.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Looks like Microsoft is still the only game in town.
posted 1 year ago
  10 rohan
What I'm saying is that they are remaining independent...
posted 1 year ago
  12 mork[Power User]
:D
posted 1 year ago
  13 grueller
Rumour and speculation of an overture to AOL (Time Warner):

http://www.bloggingbuyouts.com/2008/02/11/a-yahoo-yhoo-overture-to-aol-twx/
posted 1 year ago
  14 scott
Just out that News Corp looking to bid
posted 1 year ago
  15 ratel
looking to strike a deal, not necessarily bid to buy them
posted 1 year ago
Go NewsCorp Go!
posted 1 year ago
  17 mork[Power User]
Please join the HubDubbers Strike! We are protesting the cheater known as "Satyaki" and hubdubs refusal to penalize him for artificially getting himself on the top ladder of the leader boards BY CHEATING!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

mork (This user: Is On Strike)
posted 1 year ago
  18 ironman288
looks like Microsoft will try a hostile takeover if yahoo doesn't come quietly...
posted 1 year ago
  21 jamalpeter
Despite Microsoft's rejection over the weekend this saga is not over. Wait till Yahoo's shareholder weigh in. Now Microsoft will acquire Yahoo for a SONG.

posted 1 year ago
  22 swilson
Okay, nigeleccles, what if Microsoft acquires just a part of Yahoo?
posted 1 year ago
That wouldn't count as an acquisition. That is covered under the question rules item 2.3.4 http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion
posted 1 year ago
  24 duckie
you know what is lame about this market is that there is no f-ing way to get your money out.
posted 1 year ago
  25 mork[Power User]
This question is from the earliest days of hubdub.
posted 1 year ago
  26 bayoubear[Admin]
Yep...this is one of the golden oldies....but it will eventually settle, just as any other question that has such a long period of time involved in the market.
posted 1 year ago

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