Created Wed 5th Mar 2008 4:16pm PST by

stephen Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

Who will drop out of the 2008 democratic race first? Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

Settled as Hillary Clinton

Settling based on 99.9% rule

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. No one drops out will be the option used to settle if the race goes to the convention. The Dem. race is liking playing chicken down a busy highway right now

Forecast history %

Hillary Clinton

100%

Barack Obama

No one drops out

Settled as Hillary Clinton on Thu 5th Jun 2008 11:48am PST

Activity: H$177,192
Predictions: 430
Comments: 15

Suspend date: None
Settlement date: Thu 5th Jun 2008 11:48am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 5th Jun 2008 11:48am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary Clinton: 50%, Barack Obama: 25%, No one drops out: 25%

Action history:

Created Wed 5th Mar 2008 4:16pm PST by

stephen Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

Clarified Thu 6th Mar 2008 5:32am PST by

ryanj

: No one drops out will be the option used to settle if the race goes to the convention. The Dem. race is liking playing chicken down a busy highway right now

Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 5:32am PST by

ryanj

Suspended Thu 5th Jun 2008 10:55am PST by

destry [Admin]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Thu 5th Jun 2008 10:55am PST by

destry [Admin]

: Please settle:
(market suspended)

Settled as 'Hillary Clinton' Thu 5th Jun 2008 11:48am PST by

ryanj

: Settling based on 99.9% rule

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Predictions (430)

1 year ago

cjg999 Level 12, Guru (H$48,944)

predicted No one drops out (H$2 at 2%)

1 year ago

stephen Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

predicted Hillary Clinton (H$3,268 at 97%)

1 year ago

onedave [Power User]

predicted No one drops out (H$20 at 1%)

1 year ago

cjg999 Level 12, Guru (H$48,944)

predicted No one drops out (H$1 at 0%)

1 year ago

epicur Level 16, Oracle (H$915,136)

predicted No one drops out (H$20 at 4%)

Comments (15)

owl1

Hopefully the No one Drops Out option will be decided at the Convention at the latest.

posted 1 year ago

smidge76 Level 14, Prophet (H$204,771)

Hhmm...that's an interesting point, owl1. I would think that dropping out would technically mean dropping out before the last primary/caucus. Anything after that, particularly if it occurs at the convention would seem to be conceding defeat rather than dropping out. John Kerry didn't drop out of the presidential race, he conceded the election. Is there a difference between dropping out and conceding in a primary election? If so, where is the line drawn? The settlement on this one could get sticky if the contest goes to the convention as many are predicting.

posted 1 year ago

ryanj

No one drops out will be the option used to settle if the race goes to the convention. The Dem. race is liking playing chicken down a busy highway right now

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor.

posted 1 year ago

bayoubear [Admin]

If someone drops out, after the last primary/caucus, but before the convention is convened, how would that be treated? If they release their delegates prior to the convention, is that dropping out?

posted 1 year ago

ladylara Level 12, Guru (H$48,413)

Taking away the green tally, this wild double-line graph looks like the shape of a trophy! (on its side). Maybe the most interesting visual representation from our various votings so far, and just as wild and "roller coastered" as what it's portraying..

posted 1 year ago

jersjusttrolling Level 15, Seer (H$253,409)

look at the history graph, and the patterns details are even more amazing.
or is that a function of my eyeglasses?

is there a way to capture the entire history to examine the patterns of this prediction market for further analysis?

posted 1 year ago

meanderingsearcher Level 1, Newbie (H$14)

jers
you mean the goal is Not to try and make pretty patterns? maybe that's why i not got big $h

posted 1 year ago

shadowfax Level 13, Psychic (H$61,912)

Nice visual on the graph sideways.
Looks like 2 human profiles facing each other.
I am of the impression one the goals is to try and make distinctive compelling picto-graphs.
This one here is a keeper.
Cultural rorschach perhaps.

posted 1 year ago

lucidstates Level 14, Prophet (H$173,549)

I bet $100 on Barack, that pays $1,100+ hehehe, I'm a fool :-P Hahahahaha ... But I really think neither will drop, unless one dies that is :-/

posted 1 year ago

stephen Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

thank you ryanj
thats how the question was intended to be

posted 1 year ago

lucidstates Level 14, Prophet (H$173,549)

I'm now betting No One Drops..... Man it pays $130 to $7 ... Hahahaha, I lost $200 on the Barack thing, I was soooo dumb, but this one I'll win :-P lol

posted 1 year ago

stephen Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

ugh
i put over 5000 hubdub dollars on no one drops out
thats now worth about 500 hd dollars
and im thinking hillary might drop out soon unless shes a stubborn idiot

posted 1 year ago

stephen Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080521/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_florida

posted 1 year ago