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Who will go first - will the USA leave Iraq before Mugabe steps down as president?

Background: A majority of Iraqi's want the USA to leave just as we assume that a majority of Zimbabweans want Mugabe to leave. And the majority of Americans favour an immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq. For all intents and purposes the USA has lost the war in Iraq just as ZANUPF (and maybe Mugabe) has lost the election. The only reason that both are able to stay there is because of military power and because the presidents can over-ride the equivalent of the house of reps and senate. Both presidents have refused to accept defeat - Bush has already claimed victory once and still claims victory in the future. Both are arming militias. In both cases the economic cost on the citizens is high and resources that could have gone into health and education etc. have been diverted to the military (and associated friends - read corruption). In both cases there are strong vested interests in high places who stand to loose financially by any retreat - eg. Haliburton and Mugabe's Military and Police leaders.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

US withdrawal from Iraq will be settled based on a commitment by the US Government to troop withdrawal to the figures quoted here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/When_will_the_US_pull_out_of_Iraq_66/view

 
Forecast history %
Mugabe acknowledges and steps down as president
49%
USA acknowledges defeat in Iraq and commits to withdraw
51%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Mugabe acknowledges and steps down as president: 50%, USA acknowledges defeat in Iraq and commits to withdraw: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 16th Apr 2008 1:16pm PST by yoga
Suspended Thu 11th Sep 2008 1:46pm PST by kruijs[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Mugabe could step down as a result of him "sharing power" with Tsvangirai.
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnLB375511.html
Unsuspended Thu 11th Sep 2008 4:44pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: Most recent news is that Mugabe is NOT stepping down as Pr3esident. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/12/zimbabwe. So I'm re-opening the question.

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (71)

13 weeks ago
kgholderman predicted Mugabe acknowledges and steps down as president (H$20 at 52%)
21 weeks ago
ginothehood predicted Mugabe acknowledges and steps down as president (H$9 at 52%)
30 weeks ago
cookietime predicted USA acknowledges defeat in Iraq and commits to withdraw (H$50 at 48%)
49 weeks ago
manic predicted Mugabe acknowledges and steps down as president (H$50 at 50%)
51 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted USA acknowledges defeat in Iraq and commits to withdraw (H$3,000 at 46%)

Comments (8)

"For all intents and purposes the USA has lost the war in Iraq" ?!?!

Maybe by your intents and purposes! Saddam was removed from power for breaking the cease fire agreement he had with the USA and UN and the Iraqi people participated in democracy by voting and the rape/torture rooms are now illegal and closed.

By your definition of lose we've also lost the war on poverty, the war on drugs and the war on crime.

I know that there are still terrorists in Iraq, but there are terrorists all around the world.
posted 1 year ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
well, the "mission accomplished" statement was announced. but nevertheless the iraqi situation is a severe mess.
that is a big problem, which is as well caused by arrogant American leaders, their shortsighted strategy and their greed for oil and political influence. in fact, a civil war is going on there and the authorities (read: americans but also the international humanity organizations) have no ideas how to solve the situation - they tend to capitulate to this situation.
if you look at it this way you may say they have lost the war. but if you mean their intents and purposes was to get the US defense industry running and putting oil fields under US control - than they might have even reached some of their goals besides removing saddam.

so, just don't start arguing about that For all intents and purposes - i think the question as such is clear, unambiguous and able to be settled.
posted 1 year ago
  3 Erik
I was going to rebut, but then figured...what's the use. I am curious, however, as to just what is meant by "psuedo-militia." (In the settlement details) Perhaps this is inspiration for a new market: Does yoga worship the N.Y.Times?
posted 1 year ago
  4 owl1
The war was won in the first couple of weeks, but the occupation hasn't gone so well.
posted 1 year ago
  5 lesley[Admin]
I have edited this question to make it easier to settle objectively. Please note amended title and settlement details.

Lesley.
posted 1 year ago
I agree with f_o_f... and the "mission accomplished" statement was completely acurate. You don't hear about the Iraqi army facing off against our allies over there - that is why we don't hear about "shock and awe" strategy, the need for air superiority, and so forth. We shouldn't even have to explain this, but the fact is that some people want to lose so bad that they haven't figured out the war is already over!

Owl is right. With men like we have in our military, success was the only outcome possible!

Here is a cool video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsuNFfdbvW8

God bless the USA and our men in uniform :-)
posted 1 year ago
Will this require a withdrawal of -all- US troops in Iraq, or just "combat troops"?
posted 1 year ago
This might be an interesting wager except fthat the second option requires that the US acknowledge defeat in Iraq. That is simply not the case and it would make no sense for the government to ever say it was. Leave that to the less informed bloggers out there.

The question would make sense if it asked which of these would happen first: (1) Mugabe resigns or is otherwise removed from office or (2) all US troops leave Iraq.
posted 23 weeks ago

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