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Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?

Current forecast: Rio De Janeiro (46% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Rio De Janeiro with a probability of 46% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
Forecast history, %
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Chicago
30%
Rio De Janeiro
46%
Tokyo
12%
Madrid
10%
Doha, Quatar
1%
Baku, Azerbaijan
1%
Prague
0%
Activity: H$14,082
Open question (no suspend date)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Chicago: 20%, Rio De Janeiro: 20%, Tokyo: 20%, Madrid: 15%, Doha, Quatar: 10%, Baku, Azerbaijan: 10%, Prague: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 26th Mar 3:51am PDT by cakie174
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (89)

89 predictions

1 week ago
onedave predicted Rio De Janeiro (H$20 at 46%)
3 weeks ago
rudreitz predicted Chicago (H$50 at 31%)
3 weeks ago
tarpash predicted Rio De Janeiro (H$250 at 43%)
9 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted Chicago (H$300 at 29%)
9 weeks ago
cehills predicted Chicago (H$100 at 23%)
more

Comments (2)

I think Rio because SA has never hosted an Olympics.
posted 23 weeks ago

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