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Who will win the Florida Republican Primary?

Settled as McCain

Republican nominee Giuliani has been campaigning in Florida for the most part of the campaign, attempting to use a "big state" strategy. But, with the republican field having no front runner, a win in Florida could cement a nomination for McCain or Romney or restart the hopes for Huckabee and Giuliani.


Settlement details: As reported by CNN or MSNBC


SETTLEMENT NOTES:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Giuliani
0%
Huckabee
1%
McCain
70%
Romney
29%
Activity: H$32,673
Settled as McCain on Tue 29th Jan 6:22pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jan 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 29th Jan 6:22pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Giuliani: 40%, Huckabee: 40%, McCain: 15%, Romney: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jan 1:31pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Settled Tue 29th Jan 6:22pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 30th Jan 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 29th Jan 6:22pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (356)

356 predictions

44 weeks ago
mentalman predicted Romney (H$50 at 31%)
44 weeks ago
tkjohnson predicted McCain (H$100 at 68%)
44 weeks ago
trevorbradley predicted McCain (H$500 at 64%)
44 weeks ago
charlesn predicted McCain (H$50 at 60%)
44 weeks ago
jackie1962 predicted McCain (H$100 at 54%)
more

Comments (14)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
Anyone think the winner of this match up will become the GOP nominee?
posted 45 weeks ago
  2 hello
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=1051

Bad, bad news for Giuliani.
posted 44 weeks ago
  3 yuppieman
It would seem big state strategies don't work. Right now he is even losing in New York, the state where he was mayor!
posted 44 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
They are not factoring in the fact that early voting started in Florida on January 14th and none of the other candidates were around. Rudy is hugely popular in this area. I believe Romney will win with 29 percent, McCain 26, Rudy 26, Huckabee 15, Paul 3, Thompson 1.
posted 44 weeks ago
  5 ryanj[Admin]
Well even if Rudy gets that much of the vote he is still getting third in a state where he spent so much time and based his entire strategy upon. Destry if you think that, that is the outcome which will occur make a market on it.
posted 44 weeks ago
If McCain can beat Romney in Florida then i realy think he will be the nominee. He is the front runner in national polls right now. Of course I am a McCain supporter so maybe I'm biased...
posted 44 weeks ago
  7 ryanj[Admin]
Everyone is pushing McCain in this poll yet Romney is neck and neck with McCain, I don't like Romney, but he needs to win in Florida and he very well may.
posted 44 weeks ago
I agree with Doctor it's odd that everyone is picking McCain considering that he is practicaly tied with Romney.
posted 44 weeks ago
Latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2428418520080128
McCain 33/Romney 30/3.4% margin of error. Which means about an 80% chance of a McCain victory if the polls are right. Seems like a good investment. (Especially since I bought at 54%! :)
posted 44 weeks ago
  10 ratel
this is why we vote for elected officials in a private ballot, when you can see everyone's beliefs the current trends are magnified. We'll be careful not to be reckless with our 'money' because we don't want to lose it, but if lots of people believe it then it encourages us to believe it.
posted 44 weeks ago
  11 ratel
uhh, did McCain go above 100 at one point there? :)
posted 44 weeks ago
  12 wscollegeg
romney's percent is dropping like flies, don't pull out already, there hasn't even been 50% of the precincts reporting
posted 44 weeks ago
  13 ryanj[Admin]
I said Romney very well might win, but right now it don't look like he is, here and in Florida.
posted 44 weeks ago
  14 ryanj[Admin]
The wisdom of the markets wins!!!!
posted 44 weeks ago

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