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Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?

Settled as Hillary Clinton

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24251043/
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/22/democratic-candidates-define-victory-as-pa-primary-draws-to-a-close/

Background:

The Pennsylvania primary is the latest contest in which a large number of delegates are at stake. Who will win?


Settlement details: As reported by CNN based on number of pledged delegates.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Hillary Clinton
98%
Barack Obama
2%
Activity: H$555,008
Settled as Hillary Clinton on Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary Clinton: 60%, Barack Obama: 40%

Action history:

Created Tue 12th Feb 9:46pm PST by toodamnloud
Edited Sun 9th Mar 6:48am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 7:23am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 8am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Tue 22nd Apr 3:04pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 4pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (1567)

1567 predictions

32 weeks ago
coolxbeat predicted Hillary Clinton (H$100 at 98%)
32 weeks ago
jbolli predicted Hillary Clinton (H$1,000 at 91%)
32 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Hillary Clinton (H$250 at 88%)
32 weeks ago
triathematician predicted Hillary Clinton (H$100 at 88%)
32 weeks ago
triathematician predicted Hillary Clinton (H$100 at 87%)
more

Comments (20)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
I gather from the background data that you want this settled via the "pledged delegate" count?

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 41 weeks ago
That is correct.
posted 41 weeks ago
  3 sean
Don't bother with the lame youtube rubbish above, apparently Kevin Bacon is the devil or some such bollocks.
posted 38 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
For what year is this? 2008, 2012, 2016? All of them are possible.
posted 37 weeks ago
  5 belarusia
Don't be stupid, if you don't have a clue then don't put H$ on it
posted 37 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
Seriously I can't believe this question is so low, there seems to be nothing to indicate she will lose this state, if she wins by only 5% that would be a loss in her eyes.
posted 34 weeks ago
  7 mork[Power User]
New polls show Obama surge in Pa.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9335.html
posted 34 weeks ago
  8 mork[Power User]
Please join the HubDubbers Strike! We are protesting the cheater known as "Satyaki" and hubdubs refusal to penalize him for artificially getting himself on the top ladder of the leader boards BY CHEATING!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

mork (This user: Is On Strike)
posted 34 weeks ago
Hey all hubdubbers, the admins who control this site want EVERYONE'S input on how to deal with this cheater Satyaki and ALL future gamers ... They are asking for everyone to post their opinions and suggestions for the official rules on this link:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?
This ongoing problem stems from this:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Why_is_it_that_Satyaki_keeps_creating_Lahore_Badshahs_vs_xyz_team_questions_yet_Donal_doent_void_them_5294/view#newcomment

Here is the LATEST proposal from hubdub admins that they desire our say on:
Admins want a 4 strikes and your out process:
Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming
Hubdub Representative
To date we have dealt with gaming on a case by case basis. However it has become clear that we need to have a defined process for dealing with individuals that game. Therefore this is our proposed procedure:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning
2. Second identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth
3. Third instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined down to H$1,000
4. Any subsequent instance will result in their ability to create questions removed and potentially suspension of their account.
We propose to apply this procedure for all new instances of gaming however some users are on their first warning and one user is on their second warning.


HOWEVER, several of us users are calling for a MUCH stiffer penalty process and this is our overall latest proposal back to the admins:
We want a 3 strikes you're out process:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth.
2. Second instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks to 30 days) and fined down to H$1,000. AND removal of the gamers' right to create question for a period of time.
3. Any subsequent instance will result in definite, permanent suspension of their account, their IP and all other accounts by the gamer.


Have your say and please add your input at the area the admins have set up for this purpose:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)
posted 34 weeks ago
  10 ironman288
Obama was at 20%, I put a 100 $H on him, and he jumped to 24% instead of the 21% it says I bumped him too... seems like a bug, possibly the same one affecting the "who will be president" question.
posted 33 weeks ago
Barack is now at 13% if you wanna make more ;-)
posted 33 weeks ago
  13 ironman288
i think that debate hurt obama a lot more than it should have... why wouldn't he just where a flag, lol?
posted 32 weeks ago
  14 shadow
As a citizen of legal voting age in central Pennsylvania, i have to put in my two cents. I believe that Obama has a lot of support among the younger voters, and the older voters. As some have seen in a recent speech made in pennsylvania, audience members booed Clinton when she started slamming Obama and his policies. I believe this, along with the positive campaign run by Obama oposed to the negative campaign run by Clinton gives a bigger advantage to Obama. Many polls in primary elections can't even come close to getting every point of view of an individual voter, so don't count your eggs before they hatch. (In this case, don't count your votes before they are cast.)
posted 32 weeks ago
  15 ryanj[Admin]
Apologies for the confusion regarding suspend times. I thought I'd placed 8 o'clock suspend times. But my math must've been off. All PA markets are now set to a 7:55 end time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 32 weeks ago
How has this been decided??? 6% reporting and it's being called for Hellery??? Shenanigans!!!
posted 32 weeks ago
I agree. How can this one be settled when the polls only closed an hour ago and all votes aren't counted yet?
posted 32 weeks ago
Especially since this is supposed to be settled based on delegate count!
posted 32 weeks ago
yeah, just to say, this is a really early settlement, it may be right, but still, just wait!
posted 32 weeks ago
  20 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

The market was settled early once the major station like NBC and FOX began calling the primary. If it is a 99.9% chance that something will occur Hubdub Admins can settle a market early. This is why the market was settled early. Markets reagrding the exact margin of victory by delegates and popular vote were not settled because at the time of the primary being called not all precincts were reporting.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 31 weeks ago

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