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Who will win the US Presidential Election in 2008?

Hubdub users say: A Democrat (75% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is A Democrat with a probability of 75% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
% chance over time
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A Democrat
75%
A Republican
25%
Someone else
0%
Activity: H$96,266
Question suspends in 14 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (14 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: A Democrat: 33%, A Republican: 33%, Someone else: 34%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jan 10:53am PST by ratel
Edited Tue 26th Feb 12:57pm PST by lesley[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
2 days ago
jlew1122 predicted A Republican (H$20)
6 days ago
notablenotices predicted A Republican (H$20)
1 week ago
snads predicted A Democrat (H$100)
1 week ago
jlew1122 predicted A Republican (H$900)
1 week ago
jlew1122 predicted A Republican (H$400)
1 week ago
jlew1122 predicted A Republican (H$100)
1 week ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted A Democrat (H$200)
2 weeks ago
notablenotices predicted A Republican (H$50)
2 weeks ago
notablenotices predicted A Republican (H$100)
2 weeks ago
maryvin predicted A Democrat (H$100)
  1 ratel
I should have said the US Presidential Election.
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
I'll edit it mate
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 dollars
obama your candidate of hope ? take a look at his accomplishments:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXAQ3BHTbjs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxyPBmZE69s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xqu3u9ISctA
posted 24 weeks ago
  4 crowe
**blinks** A Rebuplican is at 52%??? what do the HubDubbers know that the rest of the country doesn't?
posted 8 weeks ago
I'm glad the election only comes up every four years, I have WAY too much money tied up in questions that won't settle until November...
posted 7 weeks ago
well, on that, at least, we both agree....when i find common ground on hubdub, i like to bury the hatchet...Friends? (even if we disagree?)
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 markov
ironman288 - I went through that for awhile and it sucks. I now only rarely wager on long term questions. I can make 10 good short term wagers with the same $ it takes to make 1 good long term wager and earn 10 times as much. IMHO the only time to do long term wagers is when you have too much $ to wager efficiently elsewhere (not my problem yet, unfortunately) or when you are highly confident you can get in and out real quick before the market stagnates.
posted 4 weeks ago
  8 bcguelph
Markov - I've come to that realization too. Bet on short term questions, or long term bets where your position will move quickly so you can get out.
posted 4 weeks ago
  9 markov
bcguelph - It's too bad they haven't found a way to separate the games or increase the reward for long term wagers. The distance is time is the true measure of one's prognostication prowess. Unfortunately it seems to get penalized by opportunity cost here at Hubdub. But I guess the same thing happens in the stock market, too, and since they are emulating the stock market it appears they've done a good job of it. After I noticed this I've tried to keep the questions I publish myself within the profitability time range to avoid plugging up the system with soon-to-stagnate questions that lock up peoples' money.
posted 4 weeks ago

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