Created Sat 2nd Feb 2008 10:15am PST by

mursik Level 5, Predictor (H$1,658)

Who will win the next elections for the German Bundestag?

Settled as CDU-FDP

CDU/FDP won on 9/27

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,657825,00.html

Background:

Background: In Germany are no clear majorities for one of the political parties or coalitions. In 2005 no side won which lead to the Grand Coalition. Will there be a clear vote for one of the coalitions (CDU-FDP or SPD-Greens) or will it again be unclear?

Settlement details:Official result as reported by Spiegel Online

Forecast history %

CDU-FDP

98%

SPD-Greens

none of them will have a majority

Settled as CDU-FDP on Wed 4th Nov 2:58pm PST

Activity: H$55,019
Predictions: 91
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Wed 4th Nov 2:58pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 26th Sep 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: CDU-FDP: 25%, SPD-Greens: 20%, none of them will have a majority: 55%

Action history:

Created Sat 2nd Feb 2008 10:15am PST by

mursik Level 5, Predictor (H$1,658)

Edited Tue 11th Mar 2008 5:01am PST by

ryanj

Settlement requested Sun 27th Sep 8:22am PST by

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

: the election is done

Settlement requested Mon 5th Oct 8:53am PST by

matthelm Level 12, Guru (H$26,632)

: Election ended 18h on Sep 27- CDU/CSU and FDP firmly won and are forming a government. See links in comments section.

Settlement requested Tue 13th Oct 6:25pm PST by

neopugg Level 7, Pro (H$4,357)

: CDU-FDP won the election.

Settlement requested Wed 21st Oct 12:21pm PST by

neopugg Level 7, Pro (H$4,357)

: Result: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,651610,00.html

Settlement requested Wed 28th Oct 6:51am PST by

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

: now the chancelor is elected.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,657825,00.html

CDU/FDP won the election already @ 27.09.09

Settled as 'CDU-FDP' Wed 4th Nov 2:58pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: CDU/FDP won on 9/27

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,657825,00.html

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Predictions (91)

3 weeks ago

neopugg Level 7, Pro (H$4,357)

predicted none of them will have a majority (H$20 at 1%)

6 weeks ago

joffi

predicted CDU-FDP (H$206 at 97%)

7 weeks ago

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

predicted CDU-FDP (H$1,300 at 52%)

7 weeks ago

bernardo Level 14, Prophet (H$248,192)

predicted none of them will have a majority (H$1,000 at 50%)

8 weeks ago

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

predicted SPD-Greens (H$20 at 0%)

Comments (6)

zhouzhou Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,631)

what if there could be a clear coalition, but they wont set it up (for example: SPD and Greens would gain a majority, but arent forming a coalition because SPD decides for another partner) ?

posted 1 year ago

drachenstein Level 13, Psychic (H$58,208)

I think, this question should offer more choosing options, like a big coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD), or "Ampel" (SPD+FDP+Green)

posted 1 year ago

nuese

I think münteferings comeback will increase the reputation of spd in germany. We should keep that in mind while bidding.

posted 1 year ago

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

the election ended at 18:00 in germany (12:00 am new york time) seems that CDU-FDP won.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,651617,00.html (german)
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Germany-Election-Exit-poll-suggests-Merkel-May-Be-Able-To-Form-Centre-Right-Government/Article/200909415393125

posted 7 weeks ago

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,657825,00.html

posted 3 weeks ago

syzslack Level 12, Guru (H$31,241)

could i get my money, please?

posted 3 weeks ago

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