Created Sat 2nd Feb 10:15am PST by 
mursik
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Who will win the next elections for the German Bundestag?
Current forecast: none of them will have a majority (51% chance
3%)
3%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is none of them will have a majority with a probability of 51% (down 3% in last 1 day)
In Germany are no clear majorities for one of the political parties or coalitions. In 2005 no side won which lead to the Grand Coalition. Will there be a clear vote for one of the coalitions (CDU-FDP or SPD-Greens) or will it again be unclear?
Settlement details:
Official result as reported by Spiegel Online
Make your prediction!
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CDU-FDP |
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SPD-Greens |
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none of them will have a majority |
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Activity: H$5,009
Question suspends in 1 year
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: CDU-FDP: 25%, SPD-Greens: 20%, none of them will have a majority: 55%
Action history:
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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
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Get widget!Predictions (55)
55 predictions
nuese
questmasterComments (3)
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score: 10
Deutsche Welle 3 days ago
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Deutsche Welle 4 days ago
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score: 10
Spiegel Online 6 days ago
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score: 10
Deutsche Welle 6 days ago
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Reuters 6 days ago
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