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Created Tue 25th Mar 2008 3:47am PDT by vandersloan
All questions » World » Other » 

Who will win the presidential election in Zimbabwe on March 29th?

Settled as Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Robert Mugabe retains presidency
54%
Simba Makoni
11%
Morgan Tsvangirai
9%
Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival
26%
Activity: H$12,424
Settled as Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival on Wed 2nd Jul 2008 6:35am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 29th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 2nd Jul 2008 6:35am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 29th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Robert Mugabe retains presidency: 35%, Simba Makoni: 10%, Morgan Tsvangirai: 5%, Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 25th Mar 2008 3:47am PDT by vandersloan
Edited Tue 25th Mar 2008 10:20am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Sat 29th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Clarified Tue 6th May 2008 12:55am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: We are waiting to see if Tsvangirai accepts a second round before we go to settle. Still unclear if he will.
Settlement requested Sun 22nd Jun 2008 7:05am PDT by orlin: Answer is "Robert Mugabe retains presidency"

'Zimbabwe's opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai says he is pulling out of Friday's presidential run-off, handing victory to President Robert Mugabe.'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7467990.stm
Settlement requested Sun 22nd Jun 2008 9:49pm PDT by orlin: "Official: Mugabe wins re-election after opposition pulls out"

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/22/zimbabwe.main/?imw=Y&iref=mpstoryemail
Settlement requested Sun 29th Jun 2008 9:39pm PDT by orlin: Mugabe retains presidency

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/29/zimbabwe.sunday/index.html
Settlement requested Mon 30th Jun 2008 6:19am PDT by buckeyeguy: Whatever happens from this point out, I believe this question should be settled as Mugabe at this time.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/06/29/zimbabwe.sunday/index.html#cnnSTCText
Settled as 'Robert Mugabe retains presidency' Mon 30th Jun 2008 4:12pm PDT by lesley[Admin]: While it did go to a 2nd round in the end, there was no "closest rival" to challenge.
Previous action withdrawn Wed 2nd Jul 2008 6:35am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Settled as 'Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival' Wed 2nd Jul 2008 6:35am PDT by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 29th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 2nd Jul 2008 6:35am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 29th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (54)

54 predictions

40 weeks ago
daydreamer predicted Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival (H$50 at 25%)
41 weeks ago
steveb predicted Robert Mugabe retains presidency (H$300 at 50%)
41 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival (H$100 at 27%)
41 weeks ago
mampfus predicted Robert Mugabe retains presidency (H$100 at 48%)
41 weeks ago
hoernla predicted Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival (H$20 at 26%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 vandersloan
Interesting that Tsvangirai actually had the lowest percentage here..
posted 40 weeks ago
  2 nigeleccles[Admin]
We are waiting to see if Tsvangirai accepts a second round before we go to settle. Still unclear if he will.
posted 35 weeks ago
  3 vandersloan
I believe he has now accepted
posted 33 weeks ago
  4 vandersloan
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/12/zimbabwe
posted 33 weeks ago
  5 questmaster
I'm frustrated about this question and how long it takes :S
posted 30 weeks ago
  6 notablenotices[Power User]
Mugabe is a thug. Again. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4116638.ece I hope they throw him out of office and charge him for all of his crimes.
posted 30 weeks ago
  7 zorbat
I dont see what part of "Election goes to a second round with Mugabe challenging closest rival" is not what happened? This question was set up before the first round of voting. He did not retain the presidency - it went to a second round. Whatever the result of the second round (Mugabe or the rival) - this was still the correct choice. Can anyone tell me what I can do to dispute this result?
posted 27 weeks ago
  8 zorbat
Also - I see Leslie settled on the basis that there was no rival to challenge (after Tsvangerai withdrew). I would say that Mugabe did challenge him - even though he ultimately did not agree to the challenge.

We woz robbed.
posted 27 weeks ago
  9 lesley[Admin]
Hey Zorbat - your comments are noted. I'll look into it and get back to you shortly.

Lesley.
posted 27 weeks ago
  10 lesley[Admin]
Question has been resettled. This means that anyone who wagered on it going to a 2nd round or on Mugabe retaining presidency have won.
posted 27 weeks ago

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