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Who's the next Airline to go Bankrupt?

Settled as Frontier Airlines

Frontier has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080411/frontier_airlines_bankruptcy.html
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2008/04/airlines_tank2.html

Background:

One week, three airlines out of business. Will there be more? Industry observers are reluctant to predict which airline, however the smaller regional carriers seem to be the biggest risk. Which airline will be the first to declare bankruptcy or announce a shutdown before July 31, 2008?

Aloha Airlines, ATA, and Skybus are the airlines. Note we are only counting scheduled service passenger carriers. Also, Champion Air's announcement was before the question creation so is not counted.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source on or before July 31, 2008.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

AirTran Airways
2%
Frontier Airlines
78%
Mesa Airlines
2%
Midwest Airlines
2%
Virgin America
2%
Any other U.S.-based Airline
7%
None
8%
Activity: H$7,968
Settled as Frontier Airlines on Fri 11th Apr 2008 6:21am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 11th Apr 2008 6:21am PDT

Initial likelihoods: AirTran Airways: 10%, Frontier Airlines: 5%, Mesa Airlines: 10%, Midwest Airlines: 5%, Virgin America: 10%, Any other U.S.-based Airline: 10%, None: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Apr 2008 8:02pm PDT by gotmick
Settlement requested Tue 8th Apr 2008 9pm PDT by randburg: Request EDITING:

Let's try this again: how are we going to guess who the NEXT airline is, if you don't tell us who the LAST three airlines were?

We don't know WHO you have already counted, and the admins won't be able to guess this either. And speaking of settlement, what major news source is going to report that THIS IS THE NEXT AIRLINE you have been waiting for?

If the history on this question can be edited with the names of the three bankrupt airlines, so that hubdubbers and admins alike can see WHO they are, this is a good question and should remain.
Clarified Wed 9th Apr 2008 1:15am PDT by andrew: The information in comments, I believe covers the requests.
Edited Wed 9th Apr 2008 7:03am PDT by andrew
Edited Thu 10th Apr 2008 2:16am PDT by robuk[Admin]
Edited Thu 10th Apr 2008 2:27am PDT by andrew
Edited Thu 10th Apr 2008 11:51am PDT by andrew
Settlement requested Fri 11th Apr 2008 6:13am PDT by orlin: AP
Frontier Files for Bankruptcy Protection

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080411/frontier_airlines_bankruptcy.html
Settled as 'Frontier Airlines' Fri 11th Apr 2008 6:21am PDT by andrew: Frontier has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080411/frontier_airlines_bankruptcy.html
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2008/04/airlines_tank2.html

Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 11th Apr 2008 6:21am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (60)

60 predictions

39 weeks ago
pop70 predicted Frontier Airlines (H$1,000 at 71%)
39 weeks ago
noah_reason predicted Frontier Airlines (H$100 at 46%)
39 weeks ago
robmar predicted Midwest Airlines (H$50 at 3%)
39 weeks ago
robmar predicted AirTran Airways (H$50 at 4%)
39 weeks ago
robmar predicted Mesa Airlines (H$50 at 5%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 randburg
Ok, keep us guessing: WHAT THREE airlines went bankrupt this past week??

I know that ATA Airlines sold rights to Air Tran, who was formerly in bankruptcy. Here's this article:
http://www.ata.com/

WHO ELSE?
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 randburg
Let's try this again: how are we going to guess who the NEXT airline is, if you don't tell us who the LAST three airlines were?

We don't know WHO you have already counted, and the admins won't be able to guess this either. And speaking of settlement, what major news source is going to report that THIS IS THE NEXT AIRLINE you have been waiting for?

If the history on this question can be edited with the names of the three bankrupt airlines, so that hubdubbers and admins alike can see WHO they are, this is a good question and should remain.
posted 39 weeks ago
Aloha Airlines, ATA, and Skybus all ceased passenger operations this past week.

To be [cough] really clear, the market ought clarify "passenger operations", as Aloha was continuing freight operations, but (as I recall) they ultimately wanted to sell that off as well. (The closure of Aloha was like losing a "family member" to native Hawaiians -- it had served the Islands since 1946.)

On a related note, Champion Air, a up-scale charter air service in Columbus, Ohio, has announced it will shut down May 31, 2008.

This market doesn't distinguish between scheduled service carriers and charter carriers -- only qualifying term is "Any other U.S.-based Airline" -- where "airline" could be open to definition.
posted 39 weeks ago
I forgot to include in the above ... I think this is a great question!
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 gotmick
Sorry, randburg... My first question. I didn't mean to be vague. Aloha Airlines, ATA, and Skybus were indeed the airlines. Scheduled service passenger carriers were my intention, but I was not aware of Champion's announcement. They should be excluded from the market if the announcement was made before the question.
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 epicur
I want to make sure that Champion Air (which announced before the question was created) is excluded. The editor's settlement edit came before comment 5 by the creator mentioned the airline exclusion.
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 randburg
Thank you gotmick and newswrangler. gotmick: we LIKE your first question and look forward to many more...!
posted 39 weeks ago
Wow -- Frontier Airlines in bankruptcy!
Talk about "low margin" operations ... Frontier claims the reason was "The low-fare carrier said it was forced into bankruptcy after its principal credit card processor said it would begin withholding a greater share of proceeds from ticket sales."

Were they using PayPal, I wonder?

I put $50.00 on Frontier Airlines and gained H$1,389.55 -- maybe if I gave that to Frontier they would be ok.

Gotmick -- time for another question?
posted 39 weeks ago
  9 gotmick
I guess so! Frontier wasn't even on my radar... and so quick! Some of us are barely getting by with all the high gas prices and their problem was credit card fees? Yeah right. Sounds like they've been living ticket to ticket.
posted 39 weeks ago

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