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Will America suffer an economic recession by the end of march?

Settled as No

Such comments have not been made

Background:

When the U.S. government states that the country has entered a recession. For example comments from Bernanke or Bush.


Settlement details: The fear for an economic recession is in the air since the beginning of January. Markets have not understood if it is a founded fear, or just an intelligent speculation maneuver.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
3%
No
97%
Activity: H$76,403
Settled as No on Tue 1st Apr 2008 4:03am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 4:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Wed 30th Jan 2008 2:56am PST by marzapower
Edited Sun 17th Feb 2008 3:54pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Sun 17th Feb 2008 3:58pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Settlement requested Sat 1st Mar 2008 10:38pm PST by dieseldog: a recession is 2 negitive quarters of growth..ie 6 months, correct? last quarter of 2007 was .6%. so no way we can america be in a recession at the end of march.
http://www.straitstimes.com/Latest+News/Money/STIStory_211471.html
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:21pm PST by andrew
Suspended Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 1st Apr 2008 4:02am PDT by mrblooize: No recession has occurred.
Settled as 'No' Tue 1st Apr 2008 4:03am PDT by andrew: Such comments have not been made

Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 4:03am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (164)

164 predictions

40 weeks ago
lovethenews predicted No (H$3,000 at 96%)
40 weeks ago
amice predicted No (H$50 at 95%)
40 weeks ago
bigt predicted No (H$200 at 95%)
40 weeks ago
gotmick predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
40 weeks ago
duketate predicted Yes (H$50 at 4%)
more

Comments (13)

  1 scarymary
Isn't it already?
posted 49 weeks ago
  2 markov
I believe we are already in what will ultimately be defined, in hindsight, as a recession in several months. However, the settlement rules for this question do not clearly indicate an official determining source for settlement. For example, a specific government report. While we may already be in a recession it will not become official until a credible source can demonstrate two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This is a great question that simply requires more clarity in its settlement details.
posted 48 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
When the U.S. government states that the country has entered a recession. For example comments from Bernanke or Bush.
posted 48 weeks ago
Keep betting that we are in a recession. My odds keep getting better. Yeeee haaaa!
posted 45 weeks ago
Scary mary, doctor, tickle and markov have it all nailed. We are in a recession now. Are stock prices escalating or recessioning?..Are home prices rising or falling?...Is the price of oil rising, (that drags money out of the country) or falling...(that keeps the spend within our local National partners...especially Canada, the country from which we import the bulk of our oil.) The middle east is third on the import list. That is pretty surprising. South America is second.
posted 44 weeks ago
You should take my name off of your heralded list. I was making a point to the contrary - which makes my odds better when I wager a "no".
posted 44 weeks ago
  7 wijiki
A recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth. We haven't even had a single quarter of negative growth yet. There's no way we can have a recession declared by the end of the month.
posted 42 weeks ago
We are in the early stages of a recession and the Bush Administration and Bernanke know it as well as most of us "realistic" people know ... The issue I have however with this question is, The Gov "Bush, Bernanke, etc." must say it in order for this question to be won as a YES ... So my problem is, even though we all know we are in a recession, the Gov will NOT admit it! They are doing everything they can to smooth it over, cover it up, all the way to a constant flow of "a recession is possible" or my favorite "we may be on the verge of slipping into a recession." That's like having a semi truck coming at you at 80mph just 15 feet from where you are standing and telling the people around you "We may possibly be hit soon." Idiots! We are getting hit right now, they know it full well and I agree with "markov" they will admit some months down the road that we've been in a recession since last month AT LEAST!

lucidstates
posted 42 weeks ago
Kind sir, I drive a truck and the thought of 80 mph scares me.
posted 41 weeks ago
  11 owl1
The Admin. is trying as hard as they can to stuff their fingers in the dyke until the Democrats take the White House, if the econ. falls apart then they can blame the Dems.
posted 40 weeks ago
Kind of like Clinton did. Hmmmmm.

Well anyway, I won this bet. Bwah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
posted 39 weeks ago
JESUS! how did i miss this market??? started at 60, went as high as 90%+!!! i couldve milked the crap out of this one!

kinda surprised it didnt get voided for its starting odds.
posted 39 weeks ago

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