Will American troops have Pakistan's permission to be operating in Pakistan by the end of 2008?

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 1:50pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 10:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 7th Feb 2008 10:06am PST by meanderingsearcher

Edited Thu 14th Feb 2008 4:09am PST by nigeleccles

Clarified Thu 14th Feb 2008 4:10am PST by nigeleccles: Question edited to include the word 'permission' as intended by the question creator

Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:46pm PST by nigeleccles

Settlement requested Sun 23rd Mar 2008 1:02pm PDT by lola: Sources say that U.S. Predator strikes inside Pakistan are on the rise since January talks

http://www.newsweek.com/id/128617

The United States has stepped up its use of pilotless planes to strike at Qaeda targets along Pakistan's rugged border area, a measure that in the past drew protests from President Pervez Musharraf but now has his government's tacit approval. Since January, missiles reportedly fired from CIA operated Predator drones have hit at least three suspected hideouts of Islamic militants, including a strike last Sunday on a house in a South Waziristan village called Toog.

The surge began after visits to Pakistan at the beginning of the year by senior U.S. officials, including intelligence czar Mike McConnell, CIA director Gen. Michael Hayden and Adm. William Fallon, who recently resigned as commander of the U.S. forces in the region. Some news reports said at the time that Musharraf had "rebuffed" U.S. proposals to step up combat operations inside Pakistan. But U.S. officials and Pakistani sources, who asked for anonymity discussing sensitive information, said the recent wave of Predator attacks are at least partly the result of understandings the high-level visitors reached with Musharraf and other top Pakistanis, giving the United States virtually unrestricted authority to hit targets in the border areas.

Suspended Mon 24th Mar 2008 1:40pm PDT by lesley: Checking sources.

Settled as 'Yes' Mon 24th Mar 2008 1:54pm PDT by lesley: http://www.newsweek.com/id/128617

Previous action withdrawn Tue 25th Mar 2008 10:16am PDT by lesley: Sorry, you're right, Predator planes are not equivalent to "troops" - mistook them for manned planes.

Suspended Thu 4th Sep 2008 6:22am PDT by cognos: Flagged by super user: I'm gonna suspend "temporarily", until we can determine the 'permission' part of this market.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/03/pakistan.attack.afghanistan.deaths/index.html

Unsuspended Thu 4th Sep 2008 8:11am PDT by infernalmachine: Recent attack does not appear to involve any Pakistani permission.

Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 6:31am PST by orlin: No such reports.

Settled as 'No' Thu 1st Jan 1:50pm PST by infernalmachine: No such reports

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 1:50pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 31st Dec 2008 10:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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