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Will Apple release a new phone in 2008?

Current forecast: 6% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 6% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)

Yes- apple will produce a new phone which is not called the iphone
No- apple will not produce a new phone

any updates or modifications of the current iphone do not count
it must be entirely new


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$56,800
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Feb 7:19pm PST by stephen
Edited Wed 5th Mar 1:04pm PST by chris[Admin]
Clarified Wed 21st May 1:27am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: As per the background we would only settle as a yes if the phone doesn't have the word iPhone in it

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (191)

191 predictions

3 weeks ago
karmacharyaa predicted Yes (H$689 at 15%)
3 weeks ago
karmacharyaa predicted Yes (H$900 at 8%)
3 weeks ago
wimmulder predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
renehasp predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
archit predicted No (H$100 at 96%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 skipper[Power User]
what would this be settled as if an "iPhone2" came out or "iPhoneNano" etc?
posted 39 weeks ago
I agree with you "skipper" I had the very same question ... I'm not touching it till w get some clarification.

lucidstates
posted 37 weeks ago
"any updates or modifications of the current iphone do not count
it must be entirely new"

seems pretty clear to me...
posted 35 weeks ago
As per the background we would only settle as a yes if the phone doesn't have the word iPhone in it. I personally think that would be highly unlikely given they are still selling iPods 7 years later.
posted 27 weeks ago
  5 gadget666
as apple is not in the habit of thinking up new names for their products (what are we going to call our new mp3 players? how about an ipod! we made a really small mp3 player, what will we call it? ipod nano!), a new phone is almost certainly going to be called an iphone. and since he has swaid it must be called an iphone, this cannot settle as yes.
posted 4 weeks ago

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