
Will Arctic summers be ice-free by 2012?
Background: Category Editor Clarification
This question means will there be an ice-free summer in the arctic on or before 31.12.2011
This question means will there be an ice-free summer in the arctic on or before 31.12.2011
Settlement details:As reported by New York Times
- Activity: H$66,548 |
- Predictions: 92 |
Comments: 9
Suspend date: Mon 31st Jan 2011 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 48%
Action history:
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... <b>Category Editor Clarification</b><br/> This question means will there be an ice-free summer in the arctic on or before 31.12.2011
Suspend date: Mon 31st Jan 2011 11:59pm PST (1 year to go) details
Predictions (92)
Comments (9)
Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
American Scientist 27 weeks ago
Three UK explorers who endured frostbite and food shortages had mixed feelings at the end of their pioneering Arctic research expedition. On Wednesday, two aircraft landed on the floating Arctic ice to collect Pen Hadow, Ann Daniels and Martin Hartley.
score: 10
Sunday Times 27 weeks ago
warns of war within a decade over Arctic oil and gas riches - Times Online Free flight or Eurostar ticket with Airmiles when you subscribe Navigation - link to other main sections from Edward Gorman UK World Times
score: 10
Al Jazeera 27 weeks ago
As countries scramble to stake their claim to resource-rich land in the Arctic, the native people of the region are left with an uncertain future. Drilling for oil and gas will not only disturb the indigenous way of life - it could, along
score: 10
The Scotsman 28 weeks ago
AM surprised at how so many people in Europe have come to support policies underpinned by hysteria over global warming, particularly cap-and-trade legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and subsidies for 'green' energy sources. I am convinced
score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 28 weeks ago
Could James Inhofe, a conservative Republican senator from Oklahoma, be the newest recruit to Barack Obama?s green revolution? Photograph: ANDREW LAKER/AP He has called global warming a hoax, compared the Environmental Protection Agency with the

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and Ice on the same day in 2008 looks like this: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif I think the answer is clearly NO..IT WILL NOT. Because we are gaining ice..not losing it.
I got to go with NO on this. We are growing ice..not losing it..Plenty of room for those polar bears. an additional 3 million miles of ice for them to walk on this time over last year
"A glitch in satellite sensors caused scientists to underestimate the extent of Arctic sea ice by 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles), a California- size area..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY
Former Vice President Al Gore is removing a dramatic slide in his global warming presentation. The New York Times reports Gore used a graph from a disaster research center in Brussels to illustrate that human-driven climate change is, "creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented."
But the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, which came up with the raw data, says no such direct correlation can be proven: "Justifying the upward trend in hydro-meteorological disaster occurrence and impacts essentially through climate change would be misleading. Climate change is probably an actor in this increase but not the major one...
We need to be cautious when interpreting disaster data... and remain objective scientific observers."
The general trend is warmer. Whether humans did it or not is debatable. But we're all a bunch of idiots if we think that we're not going to run out of cheap oil in the next 20 years. Demand is increasing, production are flat and new discoveries of large deposits aren't happening anymore. There are far more important reasons to find alternative fuels and develop renewable energy than global warming/climate change. Why the talk doesn't turn to the end of peak oil is beyond me, but to me, the climate change argument is a straw man to distract us from the real threat to our society. Name me one current technology that could supply 50% of the world's automobiles in the next 10 years but wouldn't take away from food production or mean 3x the current carbon output per gallon to produce.
As for this question, it's just a couple years off from my estimate. The research I've seen is that the Northwest Passage will be open for shipping by 2013 to 2015. 2012 is pretty optimistic/pessimistic.
Top U.S. institute still predicts 'extreme' melting
http://www.canada.com/technology/choking+Northwest+Passage+officials/1853923/story.html
An analysis of sediment cores indicates that biological and chemical changes occurring at a remote Arctic lake are unprecedented over the past 200,000 years and likely are the result of human-caused climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.
While environmental changes at the lake over the past millennia have been shown to be tightly linked with natural causes of climate change -- like periodic, well-understood wobbles in Earth's orbit -- changes seen in the sediment cores since about 1950 indicate expected climate cooling is being overridden by human activity like greenhouse gas emissions.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091019162929.htm
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