Will Arctic summers be ice-free by 2012?

Well being that ice on this day in 2007 looked like this: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2007/ims2007308_alaska.gif
and Ice on the same day in 2008 looks like this: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif I think the answer is clearly NO..IT WILL NOT. Because we are gaining ice..not losing it.

also if you look at the earth average temp: http://images.dailytech.com/nimage/7390_large_hadcrut.jpg

I got to go with NO on this. We are growing ice..not losing it..Plenty of room for those polar bears. an additional 3 million miles of ice for them to walk on this time over last year

woops -

"A glitch in satellite sensors caused scientists to underestimate the extent of Arctic sea ice by 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles), a California- size area..."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aIe9swvOqwIY

woops again

Former Vice President Al Gore is removing a dramatic slide in his global warming presentation. The New York Times reports Gore used a graph from a disaster research center in Brussels to illustrate that human-driven climate change is, "creating weather-related disasters that are completely unprecedented."

But the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, which came up with the raw data, says no such direct correlation can be proven: "Justifying the upward trend in hydro-meteorological disaster occurrence and impacts essentially through climate change would be misleading. Climate change is probably an actor in this increase but not the major one...
We need to be cautious when interpreting disaster data... and remain objective scientific observers."

I know we want to believe things will never change, but just take a single geology class that looks at the history of the earth and it's obvious the earth cycles through warmer and cooler periods. Just look at the retreat of the glaciers throughout Europe, the Himilayas, South America, and the southern 48 of the US and it's obvious the planet is not as cold as it was when those glaciers were formed (10,000 years ago). That doesn't mean humans have caused the change, nor does it obsolve them. The fact is that the weather changes people cite to say there is or there isn't global warming are inconsequential. Projecting a trend from the 1880s and using that as evidence of human caused climate change is simply poor science since Tambora (1815) and Krakatoa (1883) had a known cooling effect on the earth to an even greater extent than Mt. Pinatubo (1991).

The general trend is warmer. Whether humans did it or not is debatable. But we're all a bunch of idiots if we think that we're not going to run out of cheap oil in the next 20 years. Demand is increasing, production are flat and new discoveries of large deposits aren't happening anymore. There are far more important reasons to find alternative fuels and develop renewable energy than global warming/climate change. Why the talk doesn't turn to the end of peak oil is beyond me, but to me, the climate change argument is a straw man to distract us from the real threat to our society. Name me one current technology that could supply 50% of the world's automobiles in the next 10 years but wouldn't take away from food production or mean 3x the current carbon output per gallon to produce.

As for this question, it's just a couple years off from my estimate. The research I've seen is that the Northwest Passage will be open for shipping by 2013 to 2015. 2012 is pretty optimistic/pessimistic.

I do not know what newspapers will or won't report/say, but to me the term "ice free" for a region (like the arctic), does this mean no ice anywhere? or just a general passage (during the summer say) for a brief time? Anyway, just some thoughts... What must newspapers say/ and or mean?

Ice choking Northwest Passage: officials
Top U.S. institute still predicts 'extreme' melting
http://www.canada.com/technology/choking+Northwest+Passage+officials/1853923/story.html

Though we are experiencing global warming, still, it is still hard to imagine that the ice in the Arctic Region would melt. It is not impossible I think. Anyway, check this out! There’s something new to try and save every Wednesday this summer at Arby’s. From now until Aug. 26, participating Arby’s restaurants will offer Wednesday freebies, a different deal each week featuring new favorites like roast burger sandwiches and an orange cream swirl shake, to signature classics such as roast beef sandwiches. The offer is limited to one per person on designated dates while supplies last and is not valid with any other offer. Find the Arby's location nearest to you. Visit this site to read more: http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2009/08/05/arbys-free-wednesday-free-roast-beef-sandwich-today/

Arctic Lake Sediments Show Warming, Unique Ecological Changes In Recent Decades

An analysis of sediment cores indicates that biological and chemical changes occurring at a remote Arctic lake are unprecedented over the past 200,000 years and likely are the result of human-caused climate change, according to a new study led by the University of Colorado at Boulder.

While environmental changes at the lake over the past millennia have been shown to be tightly linked with natural causes of climate change -- like periodic, well-understood wobbles in Earth's orbit -- changes seen in the sediment cores since about 1950 indicate expected climate cooling is being overridden by human activity like greenhouse gas emissions.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091019162929.htm