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Created Thu 3rd Apr 6:36am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
All questions » Politics » UK Politics » 

Will BNP win at least one seat in the London Assembly election?

Settled as Yes

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7381633.stm

Background:

On May 1st Londoners to get to vote for mayor and for the London Assembly which has 25 seats. The Times thinks the British Nationalist Party may get enough votes on the party list section to win a seat (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/tim_hames/article3648815.ece). The complexities of the voting system are explained here: http://www.londonelects.org.uk/how_to_vote/how_the_assembly_is_elected.aspx


Settlement details: As reported by the BBC (www.bbc.co.uk)

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
41%
No
59%
Activity: H$4,956
Settled as Yes on Sun 4th May 11:43am PDT

Suspend date: Thu 1st May 12am PDT Settlement date: Sun 4th May 11:43am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 1st May 12am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Apr 6:36am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Thu 3rd Apr 6:44am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Thu 3rd Apr 6:45am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Suspended Thu 1st May 12am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 3rd May 11:01am PDT by gingerboi: they got a seat.
Settlement requested Sun 4th May 5:25am PDT by thomasgraham: They did...
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 4th May 11:43am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7381633.stm

Suspend date: Thu 1st May 12am PDT Settlement date: Sun 4th May 11:43am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 1st May 12am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

30 weeks ago
kokojumbo predicted No (H$20 at 56%)
30 weeks ago
yahoo predicted No (H$1 at 56%)
31 weeks ago
thomasgraham predicted No (H$50 at 55%)
31 weeks ago
oceanician predicted No (H$50 at 55%)
31 weeks ago
racketdad predicted Yes (H$20 at 45%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 donal
The possibility of Red Ken still being mayor is bad enough, but if the the BNP get an assembly seat, I might have to put off my move to London
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 andrew
They certainly have a chance, due to the proportional representation part of the system. It really depends if the battle between Livingstone, Johnson and Paddick heats up. If it does then those who aren't really BNP supporters but would vote as protest are less likely to.

Somehow I doubt it will so I'd think one seat is more than possible.
posted 34 weeks ago

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