triathematician
Will Barack Obama retake the lead in the Gallup daily poll between Clinton and Obama (and when)?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105529/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Edges-Ahead-Clinton.aspx
Background:
Note that only the "Gallup Daily: Clinton at XX%, Barack at XX%" poll will count, as reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx. This is NOT the USA Today/Gallup poll or any other poll.
The question will be settled ONLY IF Obama is LEADING. A tie does not count as "retaking the lead".
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx. This is a specific Gallup poll being run daily between Obama and Hillary.
Settled
| Obama retakes lead in a March 19-21 poll |
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| Obama retakes lead in a March 22-24 poll |
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| Obama retakes lead in a March 25-27 poll |
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| Obama retakes lead in a March 28-31 poll |
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| Clinton maintains lead throughout March |
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Suspend date: Mon 31st Mar 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 22nd Mar 2008 11:17am PDT
Initial likelihoods: Obama retakes lead in a March 19-21 poll: 20%, Obama retakes lead in a March 22-24 poll: 20%, Obama retakes lead in a March 25-27 poll: 20%, Obama retakes lead in a March 28-31 poll: 20%, Clinton maintains lead throughout March: 20%
Action history:
triathematician triathematician: The March 21 poll has come in. See http://www.gallup.com/poll/105529/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Edges-Ahead-Clinton.aspx. This should be settled for "March 19-21", and any predictions made after 1300 EST today should be voided. 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: http://www.gallup.com/poll/105529/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Edges-Ahead-Clinton.aspx
Suspend date: Mon 31st Mar 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 22nd Mar 2008 11:17am PDT
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (88)
88 predictions
jenniandboys
predicted Obama retakes lead in a March 19-21 poll (H$20 at 18%)
kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
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