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Will Barry Bonds be convicted of perjury, obstruction of justice or both during a first trial?

Current forecast: Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. (51% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. with a probability of 51% (unchanged in last 1 day)

In November 2007, baseball star Barry Bonds pleaded not guilty to four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice for allegations he lied to a federal grand jury about his use of steroids. Will the first jury to hear the case against Bonds find him guilty?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime.
51%
No, he will be found not guilty of all five crimes.
12%
No, the first jury will not be able to agree on a verdict.
12%
No, Bonds will agree on a plea bargain before a jury verdict is reached.
13%
No, prosecutors will drop the charges.
12%
Activity: H$3,308
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime.: 20%, No, he will be found not guilty of all five crimes.: 20%, No, the first jury will not be able to agree on a verdict.: 20%, No, Bonds will agree on a plea bargain before a jury verdict is reached.: 20%, No, prosecutors will drop the charges.: 20%

Action history:

Created Tue 26th Feb 2008 7:44am PST by peterww

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (22)

22 predictions

14 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. (H$20 at 49%)
14 weeks ago
heiser predicted Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. (H$50 at 49%)
34 weeks ago
quorny predicted Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. (H$50 at 50%)
34 weeks ago
fingers_of_fury predicted Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. (H$100 at 48%)
34 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted Yes, he will be found guilty of at least one crime. (H$500 at 41%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 donal
Excellent wording
posted 45 weeks ago
  2 peterww
Thank you. I've had some problems in that area so hearing your encouragement is especially appreciated.
posted 44 weeks ago
  3 mrperfkt[Admin]
Add yet another charge.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1343980420080514
posted 34 weeks ago

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