Created Wed 2nd Apr 2008 11:06am PST by

Will Brian Cowen succeed Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach (Irish PM)?

Settled as Yes

Background: After the Irish Media disgracefully hounded Bertie out of office (I'm using a bit of editorial license here), will Biffo be the next Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister)

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

94%

Settled as Yes on Tue 15th Apr 2008 3:18am PST

Activity: H$5,120
Predictions: 3
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Tue 6th May 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 15th Apr 2008 3:18am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 90%

Action history:

Created Wed 2nd Apr 2008 11:06am PST by

donal

Settled as 'Yes' Tue 15th Apr 2008 3:18am PST by

donal

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Suspend date: Tue 6th May 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 15th Apr 2008 3:18am PST details

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Predictions (3)

1 year ago

knowman Level 6, Player (H$2,817)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 94%)

1 year ago

donal

predicted Yes (H$5,000 at 92%)

Comments (1)

randburg Level 20, Hubdub God (H$5,860,850)

This is a fine question, but what is the point of betting on a prediction that STARTS at 90%? If the outcome of the question is so certain, why ask it at all? To make a point, this is going to be a bit cynical:

WHY NOT start the odds at 98% and ask for an immediate settlement?

posted 1 year ago

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