Will Brigitte Bardot be ordered to pay $23,900 fine for inciting hatred?
Voided
The question states an exact figure in US Dollars when the fine was to be in Euros. Although the fine was the stated amount of Euros, the exchange rate changed to make the exact figure in USD slightly different. Taken this way, the initial likelihood of 80% was inaccurate. This has been settled as both yes and no, so nobody has lost out financially. It should have been voided sooner than this - please accept my apologies.
Background:>
PARIS — Brigitte Bardot is back on trial in France, facing charges of fanning discrimination and racial hatred against Muslims.
Will Brigitte Bardot be ordered to pay $23,900 fine for inciting hatred?
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Forecast history, %
Voided
Voided Wed 11th Jun 3:06pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Mon 2nd Jun 8:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 80%
Action history:
Created Wed 16th Apr 8:38pm PDT by
mork
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Previous action withdrawn Tue 3rd Jun 12:08pm PDT by
robuk
Settled as 'No' Tue 3rd Jun 12:08pm PDT by
robuk
Previous action withdrawn Wed 11th Jun 3:03pm PDT by
lesley![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
:
About to void.
Voided Wed 11th Jun 3:06pm PDT by
lesley![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
:
The question states an exact figure in US Dollars when the fine was to be in Euros. Although the fine was the stated amount of Euros, the exchange rate changed to make the exact figure in USD slightly different. Taken this way, the initial likelihood of 80% was inaccurate. This has been settled as both yes and no, so nobody has lost out financially. It should have been voided sooner than this - please accept my apologies.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source....
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Predictions (94)
94 predictions
13 weeks ago
atrane predicted
No (H$200 at 44%)
13 weeks ago
danhanley predicted
Yes (H$100 at 59%)
13 weeks ago
rogi predicted
Yes (H$20 at 59%)
13 weeks ago
atrane predicted
No (H$300 at 41%)
more13 weeks ago
atrane predicted
No (H$200 at 44%)
13 weeks ago
danhanley predicted
Yes (H$100 at 59%)
13 weeks ago
rogi predicted
Yes (H$20 at 59%)
13 weeks ago
atrane predicted
No (H$300 at 41%)
13 weeks ago
gingerboi predicted
No (H$300 at 48%)
13 weeks ago
frank2877 predicted
No (H$100 at 48%)
13 weeks ago
atrane predicted
No (H$100 at 47%)
13 weeks ago
atrane predicted
No (H$2,760 at 42%)
14 weeks ago
myunion predicted
Yes (H$20 at 62%)
14 weeks ago
robuk![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
predicted
No (H$50 at 38%)
15 weeks ago
jimbo predicted
Yes (H$20 at 62%)
15 weeks ago
colleen predicted
No (H$100 at 38%)
15 weeks ago
thekinks predicted
No (H$5 at 38%)
15 weeks ago
owl1 predicted
Yes (H$50 at 62%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (46)
You have some strange questions man, haha :-D
lucidstates
Keep up the good work.
anyhow, glad I live in America where my opinion is not a crime (though some people want to make it one). For the sake of freedom I hope she gets off, but with her past record she probably wont. luckily she may be rich enough to do her thing anyways :D
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080425/ENTERTAINMENT/868805865/1007
this is happening in Minnesota too, where the Islamists want tax money to pay for foot-baths at the university to be used in ritual washings before prayer and taxi drivers wont drive people that have pork or alcohol. They don't seem to understand or care that other people have the right to live how they want as well and their religion isn't about to be favored over the rest (when their lucky it's not at a disadvantage being the minority it is).
http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2008/06/03/not-again-brigitte-bardot-convicted-for-anti-muslim-rants/?mod=googlenews_wsj
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ixP8XeA1fg-eeiNgRz_M4fBicPAgD912LDIG0
http://www.eitb24.com/new/en/B24_100617/life/EURO15000-FINE-Brigitte-Bardot-convicted-over-racism/
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/entertainment&id=6181948
I believe the fine she was facing is the fine she received.
She now has been fined 15 000 euro,
Anybody who wagered 'no' on the idea that the exchange rate would no longer convert to $23 900 at time of settlement, was not considering the 'common sense' rule.
just my opinion.
Beyond that, I'm unclear on the Settlement of this market. I see it as being settled as "Yes" earlier today. Then, 2.5 hours later, settled as "No".
Did everyone get paid a winning prediction?
Do not state the specific amount at all: Just refer to the announcement of the fine.
And in case you want to specify the amount: Leave it in the currency in which it was published, maybe the conversion to USD as additional information in parentheses just for the US-Hubdubs.
Make it less vulnerable for nitpickers.
That said: I agree with the "common sense" rule. Did she get ordered to pay that fine (regardless the current conversion to USD, and even regardless any additional dues, fees or anything), or didn't she? YES she did.
Kruijs and mork - I take offense to your common sense characterization. Two of the comments before this was settled discuss the problem with the exactness of the amount. No one commented about common sense then or contradicted their assertions. Anyway, the conversion claim is wrong. She was fined 15,000 euros and 1,000 euros to MRAP. Mork, this is not the 15,000 euros you claim. It is a total fine of 16,000 euros.
What about other questions that give certain amounts (i.e. will this item sell for at least a certain amount of dollars, will a movie make a certain amount)? You wouldn't just say they made money, so we can settle those questions for any amount of earnings. This is just like those situations, it is a certain amount. That certain amount was not achieved.
Apparently the amount of the fine was different than was listed in the question, but for whatever reason, it was pretty close....it's not like they fined her only half the amount listed or twice the amount...but, there was an exact amount listed, so I guess that's what we should go by....
I think you are nitpicking this thing.
What kinda bugs me is that I suspect you wagered on this question with full intention to do so if it didn't work out for you,
In other words, This question went to shit because you intended to challenge it over a technicality so you could make a little bit of $H.
I concede epicur. You got me. Please spare me your preaching.
Sorry that I offended you with my common sense.
Let see if we can get it together after all: The question asks "Will BB be ordered to pay $23.900 fine for inciting hatred"
The point is "$23.900 fine" which is open to interpretation.
One could say "it must be exactly 23.900" - ok, but that is not very likely because of the conversion rate - remember? A starting likelihood of 80% YES would be waaaaaay off. Did you mention that anywhere? No?
One could also say "she must pay a fine currently around 23.900", no matter what the exact value of the fine would be in the end - it's all about "that fine". But this is problematic in a way that the difference to the value of the fine can be too large so it is actually no longer "that fine" but an other one (logically spoken, ok?). And that's the point in this case: How large may the difference be - this is a highly subjective matter.
So, when leaving out the conversion rate part, the fine is still the same. When doing a currency conversion, your still at about the same amount. You put in another 1k EUR - an addition to the original fine. This does not belong to "that fine" (logically spoken). She is charged "that fine" plus an additional 1k EUR. Anyway, if "that fine" wasn't 15000 but 16000 in the end, IMHO it is still "that fine" because, ok, 1000EUR is a lot of money for me too, in relation to "that fine" (original value) it is not that much.
I tried to point out the problems I see in this question in my last comment. I actually spoke of common sense, and against my own wager at that moment, because I changed my mind in the mean time. Anyone is free to try that too.
Thanks for listening.
You guys should have flagged this thing for bad starting odds instead of wagering on it.
Poor sportsmanship in my opinion.
When I created this question I thought it 80 percent likely she would be found guilty as charged, which she was.
I agree this question should have been worded differently or had background info clarifying my intention but I thought the starting odds spoke for themselves.
I've learnt from this one.
"When I created this question I thought it 80 percent likely she would be found guilty as charged, which she was."
Then why is this settled as "No"?
[Disclosure: at no time did I have predictions in this market.]
Unfortunately I didn't provide a link to the original news article which drew my attention to Bardot's dilemna. It described how she was facing a fine of $23,900.
The trial was taking place in France and in actual fact she was facing a fine in the euro currency 15 000. The article I had read had converted it to the American dollar.
Now she has been found guilty and fined the euro 15 000.
As you can see in this article; shrunklink.com/artg , the euro 15000 no longer converts to $23 900.
This question was originally settled as yes but has since been challenged and the decision reversed.
If mork is a representative of hubdub as a super user, then this site is in trouble (cursing in comment #14 and 23, accusations of my motives in #23 without any evidence). How can you suspect my motives (comment # 23)? Got any evidence? NO. So I suggest you stop making wild accusations without evidence and just worry about writing your questions better next time. And for that matter, read and respond to comments in your questions. Comment # 2 and your lack of contradiction in comment # 3 and 5 (besides comment #6, which was after your comment) is what prompted my wagers.
With regard to our flagging questions for poor starting odds, I do it when I perceive it. In this case, I thought we were wagering on whether the prosecutor was going to get exactly what was asked for or whether the court might use discretion and adjust / change the punishment (such as the 1,000 Euros the court ORDERED for MRAP). The odds at the time of my wager seemed reasonable so I bet "no." Isn't that part of what this site is about? Disagreeing with people about potential news story outcomes and wagering against them.
Anyway, I'm done with this. The question has been settled and I'm moving on.
If you need a second link explaining it to you epicur, here it is:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080604.wbuzz04-1/BNStory/Entertainment/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080604.wbuzz04-1
your attempts to distort the facts from the links that you yourself provided confirm my suspicions.
There are valid arguments for both a 'yes' and a 'no' settlement -- which is why it was settled both ways. No one lost any money on this.
The exchange rate issue was a little confusing -- that alone could have caused massive confusion and discussion on this question.. although there is a 'common sense' approach to handle that type of problem.
The trickier part is the payment to the other people. I've looked through about 10 articles now and about half of them lump the fine and payment together into the 'fine she had to pay' and the other half break them apart and call the 15k the fine and then the extra 1k something seperate.
Mork, I understand the spirit of the question was just talking about the 15k fine, but I hope you can take a step back and see that the settlement is indeed a little murky when you look at the extra 1k "fine".
Can we all be friends again?
(Disclosure: I'm pretty sure I've never had h$ in this market)
Anyway, I'm tired of this. If this site is going to allow you to curse (comment #14 & #23), accuse me without evidence (comment #23) and make bigoted sexual orientation slurs (comment #31) and still represent it, I have no place here. See the following getsatisfaction link.
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/a_hubdub_representative_super_user_mork_not_being_a_good_role_model_for_hubdub
I look forward to watching your pity party epicur.
I conceded in comment 23
Again, DISGRACEFUL DIALOGUE HAS DONE DAMAGE, LEFT A SCAR ON THE FACE OF HUBDUB, AND CAUSED THE DEPARTURE OF A VALUED AND RESPECTED MEMBER. Nobody is perfect, but there is NO EXCUSE for some of the comments that have been made here...
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Disclosure: I have had no financial interest in this question for at least the last month and a half. I can't remember if I temporarily bet on this question when it first came out.
I suggest you add your comments to the GetSatisfaction thread.
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/a_hubdub_representative_super_user_mork_not_being_a_good_role_model_for_hubdub
I can't quite make sense of it because two days ago Lesley Eccles stated in the GetSat thread: "It is clear that the question should have been voided."
I feel, I assume you do too, that the importance of questions settling without ambiguity is vital to the integrity of hubdub and it's future.
I look forward to seeing any constructive arguements you might have on the GetSat thread.
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