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Will Bush end his term in office with a less than 30% approval rating?

Current forecast: 72% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 72% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com has Bush's current approval average at 34.3%. Will Bush go down as the worst ever President in recent times based on an approval rating of less ten 30%


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
72%
No
28%
Activity: H$64,749
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 22nd Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jan 12:49am PST by tbyrd

Suspend date: Thu 22nd Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (236)

236 predictions

4 days ago
harkon predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 72%)
5 days ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$25 at 29%)
5 days ago
prashantgoenka predicted Yes (H$50 at 71%)
5 days ago
newsjunkieaz predicted Yes (H$100 at 71%)
5 days ago
gabrielwest predicted Yes (H$100 at 72%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 frank2877
He's going to have to work at it to beat Nixon :-)

http://uspolitics.about.com/od/polls/l/bl_historical_approval.htm
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 frank2877
P.S. His approval rating is still higher than Congress :-)

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/26/poll.congress/index.html

We need a question asking if Bush's approval rating will sink as low as Congress's rating by the end of his term :-)
posted 24 weeks ago
I know - for they last 7.5 years we have heard that [President] Bush "has the lowest rating ever..."

He has to be in the negative numbers by now, I would think. Of course I think they just were polling Chrissy Mathews over and over again... and Michelle Obama. I was never polled in the last 7.5 years, & I don't know anyone who was polled.
posted 24 weeks ago
  4 frank2877
At least he is still in double digits. Congress just hit single digits (9%) :-)
posted 20 weeks ago
From http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/high-school-musical-3-doing-huge-box-office/

There's been tremendous interest by the public in the box office fate of Oliver Stone's W. for its second weekend in release. Well, it ran out of steam. QED International/Lionsgate's Bush biopic sank 58% to No. 7 with a $5.3M weekend from 2,050 dates and new cume of $18.7M. The $30M negative cost film should end up with $23M domestic box office gross by the end of its North American run. That means, with a $25M P&A investment and Lionsgate's distribution fees, the film won't recoup.

The bash the President film was not very popular! LOL
posted 5 weeks ago
@notable - I guess people aren't willing to pay for what the MSM provides free of charge ;-)
posted 5 weeks ago
Its been done so often its finally gotten old! We should ask the question will Georges approval ratings raise before he is replaced!
posted 5 weeks ago
  8 pixelpaws
Bush is doing so badly that I'm actually finding it increasingly difficult to find a source on this. One article cites a 76% disapproval rating, which implies that he has an approval rating of 24% (or lower, if there are somehow people who just went "meh".) -- http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2008/11/bushs_approval_rating_at_an_al.html

A little further research led me to a blog which reports his approval rating is just 19%, but I wouldn't rely on it as a settlement source -- http://politics.gearlive.com/filibustersoup/article/q308-the-bush-legacy/

Another report, from Salon.com, Describes Bush as having "approval ratings hovering around 25 percent." -- http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/11/26/obama/

Gallup, in a report they released just about a month ago, cites that Bush averaged 29.4% during the penultimate quarter of his presidency, which is up four-tenths from the previous quarter. -- http://www.gallup.com/poll/111280/Bush-Approval-Rating-Doldrums-Continue.aspx

Even though I can't seem to find a recent, firm number from a reliable source, I also can't find any report that even implies he might be at or above 30 points.
posted 6 days ago

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